>myoo,
good insight, I just run the sims again.
playing the normal method incr bet with advantage
gives you a 1.30% edge
sims 5 million
no. of sessions won 89%
playing the extreme method
flat betting but betting 12 units at plus 12
gives you a 2.10% EDGE
sims 5 million
no. of sessions won 87%
someone said this method is pure gambling but the edge is over 1% greater,I'll trust the computer.
>don't reinvent the wheel but improve on it maybe.
> good insight, I just run the sims again.
> playing the normal method incr bet with advantage
> gives you a 1.30% edge
> sims 5 million
> no. of sessions won 89%
> playing the extreme method
> flat betting but betting 12 units at plus 12
> gives you a 2.10% EDGE
> sims 5 million
> no. of sessions won 87%
> someone said this method is pure gambling but the edge
> is over 1% greater,I'll trust the computer.
I said it was gambling with an edge, but gambling nonetheless. "Pure gambling" was your term. What happens to variance and ROR in your second sim, assuming the same bankroll?
> playing the extreme method
> flat betting but betting 12 units at plus 12
> gives you a 2.10% EDGE
ok, missed the flat betting part first time around, but I'm still coming up with higher SCORES using the "extreme" method($216.77 vs. $190.69). I don't see much real-life use for this, though. It seems like it would be pretty slow winning if you have to leave every time you make a big bet.
Myoo,
you would not not have to leave after a big bet of plus 12, but if you do it your plus 15=20 then you hit it and run.
Parker,
the ror/var is basically the same. Too many factors to go into but the extreme method is not gambling or you can call all advantage play gambling because it all ivolves some risk. Where do you stop. What is the threshold number that you would consider the ror approriate where one would not be gamling then? The sims don't lie. We are so conditioned to bet one way and refuse all other styles immediately, but why?
> I said it was gambling with an edge, but gambling
> nonetheless. "Pure gambling" was your term.
> What happens to variance and ROR in your second sim,
> assuming the same bankroll?
It's normal, don't worry.
the real "problem" is that a lot of people before learn card counting lose his bankroll, than they are pro only in casino verite.. :-)
> I started counting cards about a year ago. Averaging
> two casino trips a week and about four hours per trip.
> My typical game is six decks, S17, DOA, DAS, No
> surrender. Penetration is usually about 75%, sometimes
> a little better. I keep track of my wins and losses,
> and I have lost a lot of money since I started
> counting. I have had by far more losing sessions than
> winning sessions. I can't count the number of times I
> lost six or more hands in a row while the count was
> high. And because the count was high, I had a big bet
> on each hand, causing me to lose a lot of money. This
> keeps happening to me over and over. If the running
> count reaches +20, it is almost a guarantee that I
> will lose my hands. But for some reason, I keep
> betting high when the count is high, and I keep
> losing. Is there any type of betting schedule that I
> can use to avoid losing six large bets in a row? Does
> the player really have an advantage when the true
> count is +2 or higher? Bottom line, does a player
> really have an advantage if he counts cards?
> Thanks,
> Ray
I'm with you 100% Ray. I've trained, I've practiced, I've created custom indices, memorized them, worked on optimal bet schedules, and here's what the DIRTY LITTLE SECRET that none of these gurus want you to know: IT IS ALL ABOUT LUCK.
I sat in store after store and watched the same b*llsh*t happen to me everywhere: every f'in time I had a +2 TC or higher, it was like my hands were guaranteed to be losers or pushes. RARELY did I win a hand with a +2 TC count or better. Worse--I usually lost a significant chunk of my session bankroll and wound up a loser for the session after losing a few of these bigger bets. It was almost as if my chances WENT DOWN when I had the edge.
I watched almost every one of my BJs get paid and then the dealer busted--so give me a damn 13 and let the busting begin--don't waste the damn BJ! Don't even get me started on double downs. Every A-4 got a 10, and every 5-6 got a small card. Oh yeah, when I managed to get the 10 on the 5-6, the dealer broke so it didn't matter what I had. I can't recall ONE damn time that I had a 10 land on a double down to BEAT the dealer's hand. Lot's of pushes on 20 and 21 though. Joy.
Best of luck to you bastards who pull cards, you have a chance...I haven't seen it and I'm damned if I'm going to continue to be a "loser" for years to come waiting for "my turn" to appear.
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