Ray: HELP! Does card counting really work?

[Ray]

I started counting cards about a year ago. Averaging two casino trips a week and about four hours per trip. My typical game is six decks, S17, DOA, DAS, No surrender. Penetration is usually about 75%, sometimes a little better. I keep track of my wins and losses, and I have lost a lot of money since I started counting. I have had by far more losing sessions than winning sessions. I can't count the number of times I lost six or more hands in a row while the count was high. And because the count was high, I had a big bet on each hand, causing me to lose a lot of money. This keeps happening to me over and over. If the running count reaches +20, it is almost a guarantee that I will lose my hands. But for some reason, I keep betting high when the count is high, and I keep losing. Is there any type of betting schedule that I can use to avoid losing six large bets in a row? Does the player really have an advantage when the true count is +2 or higher? Bottom line, does a player really have an advantage if he counts cards?

Thanks,

Ray

[jblaze]

what system are you using? what sort of spread? whats your total net? your playing time? (is it really 8hrs/wk * 52wk/yr?... 416hrs?) for this amount of time i think 2 sigma left of expected will still have you in the green depending on your style of play. this suggests more practice.

yes a player can gain an advantage if he/she counts cards, yet without proper funding and bet scheduling that advantage is useless in the long run. as is always possible too, human error can be introduced, how much so depending on the skill of the player.

> I started counting cards about a year ago. Averaging
> two casino trips a week and about four hours per trip.
> My typical game is six decks, S17, DOA, DAS, No
> surrender. Penetration is usually about 75%, sometimes
> a little better. I keep track of my wins and losses,
> and I have lost a lot of money since I started
> counting. I have had by far more losing sessions than
> winning sessions. I can't count the number of times I
> lost six or more hands in a row while the count was
> high. And because the count was high, I had a big bet
> on each hand, causing me to lose a lot of money. This
> keeps happening to me over and over. If the running
> count reaches +20, it is almost a guarantee that I
> will lose my hands. But for some reason, I keep
> betting high when the count is high, and I keep
> losing. Is there any type of betting schedule that I
> can use to avoid losing six large bets in a row? Does
> the player really have an advantage when the true
> count is +2 or higher? Bottom line, does a player
> really have an advantage if he counts cards?

> Thanks,

> Ray

[bfbagain]

Chances are, you're letting the losses affect your game.

First question: Have you had any winning sessions during this past year? Have you had any winning sessions while having your big bets out there, i.e., at strong plus counts?

How many players are usually at the table you're playing?

Do you find yourself expecting to lose? For example, when you're in a losing streak, and you have max bets out, do you expect to receive stiffs? Do you find yourself emotional while you're at the tables? I don't mean as part of an act, but real emotion?

Answer these, and maybe we can go further.

cheers
bfb

[Ray]

Thanks for the response. I use the hi-lo system, usually a 1-12 spread. I sometimes play at $10 tables, sometimes $15 tables and sometimes $25 tables. Yes, I have played at least 416 hours and lost a lot of money during that time. I always bring enough money with me. I have practiced the counting a lot and I'm sure I'm doing it right. I'm not saying I never make a mistake, but I really think I'm counting right. I do see a lot of tens come out when the count is high, but not in the right playces. I'll be dealt a ten and a two, the dealer will have ten showing, so I hit. Of course I get a ten. This happens over and over.

> what system are you using? what sort of spread? whats
> your total net? your playing time? (is it really
> 8hrs/wk * 52wk/yr?... 416hrs?) for this amount of time
> i think 2 sigma left of expected will still have you
> in the green depending on your style of play. this
> suggests more practice.

> yes a player can gain an advantage if he/she counts
> cards, yet without proper funding and bet scheduling
> that advantage is useless in the long run. as is
> always possible too, human error can be introduced,
> how much so depending on the skill of the player.

[Ray]

Thank you for responding. Yes I have had winning sessions while having big bets out. I even had a streak where I had several winning sessions in a row, which made me very happy. But that was followed by a larger streak of losing sessions. While I have had both winning sessions and losing sessions, I have had more losing sessions than winning sessions. And almost always the big losses come from losing several hands in a row while the count is high.

I go in expecting to win, thinking I just had bad luck, that I should still have the advantage. I don't put a big bet out and expect to lose. I expect to win. But then I end up losing again. Number of players including myself range from 1 to 7. With four or five being typical. In my area, there is not many tables where you can play with less very often.

Yes, I do get emotional, when I lose six hands in a row during a high count yet again. But I still keep track of the count.

> Chances are, you're letting the losses affect your
> game.

> First question: Have you had any winning sessions
> during this past year? Have you had any winning
> sessions while having your big bets out there, i.e.,
> at strong plus counts?

> How many players are usually at the table you're
> playing?

> Do you find yourself expecting to lose? For example,
> when you're in a losing streak, and you have max bets
> out, do you expect to receive stiffs? Do you find
> yourself emotional while you're at the tables? I don't
> mean as part of an act, but real emotion?

> Answer these, and maybe we can go further.

> cheers
> bfb

[Norm Wattenberger]

that you are doing it correctly?

> Thanks for the response. I use the hi-lo system,
> usually a 1-12 spread. I sometimes play at $10 tables,
> sometimes $15 tables and sometimes $25 tables. Yes, I
> have played at least 416 hours and lost a lot of money
> during that time. I always bring enough money with me.
> I have practiced the counting a lot and I'm sure I'm
> doing it right. I'm not saying I never make a mistake,
> but I really think I'm counting right. I do see a lot
> of tens come out when the count is high, but not in
> the right playces. I'll be dealt a ten and a two, the
> dealer will have ten showing, so I hit. Of course I
> get a ten. This happens over and over.

[bfbagain]

If you're playing, in the area that I think you're playing in (based on your email address, which you should refrain from using btw) then the penetration levels are usually bad. Very bad, as a matter of fact.

Do you find that the cut card appears while the count is still rising? A lot? Or it's very high and you're betting it, but the paint is not flowing when the cut card comes?

If so, you're not playing to the advantage that you think you are. More than likely the big cards are behind the cut card and they never appear. This can happen quite frequently when the penetration level is 70% and less.

When the count is really high, what should actually happen is the that the count will start to drop....significantly, as the paint hits the felt. That's your real advantage.

Unfortunately, it sounds as if you're just having some severe negative flux. I can sympathize, as I have experienced severe losing streaks myself. As a matter of fact, I'm in one now. It happens.

All you can do is go home and practice, check yourself, and practice some more, to verify that you are playing correctly. That takes care of some mechanics, and reinstills self confidence. But it's not the whole story.

You need to reevaluate your betting ramp, as well as having the discipline to NOT play in poorly penetrated games. Seek out dealers who deal deeper, and if they don't, leave. Casinos aren't going anywhere, and they'll be there the next day, and the day after that, and the day after that.

cheers
bfb

[bigplayer]

you probably shouldn't be playing. The fact that you don't know the exact number of hours you've played and can only reference your play by average hours played per week tells me you don't keep very good records or understand that math behind the game particularly well.

Here is what I suspect

1. You're not spreading your bets big enough
2. You're playing bad game in a very passive play-all manner
3. You're using some sort of money management technique which causes you to drop out of big shoes after losing consecutive hands.
4. You are keeping bad records or have other leaks that you aren't relating.
5. On top of 1-4, you've been unlucky.

[Ouchez]

> I started counting cards about a year ago. Averaging
> two casino trips a week and about four hours per trip.
> My typical game is six decks, S17, DOA, DAS, No
> surrender. Penetration is usually about 75%, sometimes
> a little better. I keep track of my wins and losses,
> and I have lost a lot of money since I started
> counting. I have had by far more losing sessions than
> winning sessions. I can't count the number of times I
> lost six or more hands in a row while the count was
> high. And because the count was high, I had a big bet
> on each hand, causing me to lose a lot of money. This
> keeps happening to me over and over. If the running
> count reaches +20, it is almost a guarantee that I
> will lose my hands. But for some reason, I keep
> betting high when the count is high, and I keep
> losing. Is there any type of betting schedule that I
> can use to avoid losing six large bets in a row? Does
> the player really have an advantage when the true
> count is +2 or higher? Bottom line, does a player
> really have an advantage if he counts cards?

> Thanks,

> Ray

questions. Many very seasoned and skilled players ask it on a somewhat frequent basis.

I think the key is to play with no more than 2 players and find a game with surrender and better pen. Also better to find a fine DD game.

BJ is a real wild ride and not for the faint of heart. My feeling is that maybe you should just give it up if you must play 6 or more decks.

As you have said you have lost alot of money and that is a REAL waste of your assets on a game such as you descibe playing.

Ouchez.

[Sun Runner]

> 1. You're not spreading your bets big enough
> 2. You're playing a bad game in a very passive play-all manner
> 3. You're using some sort of money management technique which causes you to drop out of big shoes after losing consecutive hands.
> 4. You are keeping bad records or have other leaks that you aren't relating.
> 5. On top of 1-4, you've been unlucky.

Not so much brilliant as it is so obvious. True brilliance is being able to recognize the obvious.

I would bet that 90% of those that have spent any time at all looking into beating blackjack fall into catagories #1 and #2.

Ray ...

Last night I backcounted a shoe and got in at +5 with three decks to go; less than one deck cut off.

I lost the next six of seven hands.

The big cards were coming out all right; all around me. The lady I was standing next to had no clue. No clue. She draws aces against a six. Must be persuaded (not be me) to split them. She draws two more aces. Again must be persuaded to split. On two of those four aces she draws two really nice soft doubles. Does she double? No .. she hits them, both, per the dealer's advice.

She wins all four hands.

What are ya' gonna do? It happens.

You can't do much about bigplayers #5 (except hopefully play through it)... but #1 through #4 are brilliant.

[Ray]

Well, I've been practicing at home a lot, with six decks, and when I reach the end, the running count is always zero.

> that you are doing it correctly?

[Ray]

Well, my original post said that penetration is usually 75%, sometimes better. I won't play if it's less than 75%. I sometimes find the cut card coming out when the count is high, and sometimes the count goes back down before the cut card comes out. Occasionaly, I'll get a game where the dealer puts the card only one deck from the back.

Thanks for the response.

> If you're playing, in the area that I think you're
> playing in (based on your email address, which you
> should refrain from using btw) then the penetration
> levels are usually bad. Very bad, as a matter of fact.

> Do you find that the cut card appears while the count
> is still rising? A lot? Or it's very high and you're
> betting it, but the paint is not flowing when the cut
> card comes?

> If so, you're not playing to the advantage that you
> think you are. More than likely the big cards are
> behind the cut card and they never appear. This can
> happen quite frequently when the penetration level is
> 70% and less.

> When the count is really high, what should actually
> happen is the that the count will start to
> drop....significantly, as the paint hits the felt.
> That's your real advantage.

> Unfortunately, it sounds as if you're just having some
> severe negative flux. I can sympathize, as I have
> experienced severe losing streaks myself. As a matter
> of fact, I'm in one now. It happens.

> All you can do is go home and practice, check
> yourself, and practice some more, to verify that you
> are playing correctly. That takes care of some
> mechanics, and reinstills self confidence. But it's
> not the whole story.

> You need to reevaluate your betting ramp, as well as
> having the discipline to NOT play in poorly penetrated
> games. Seek out dealers who deal deeper, and if they
> don't, leave. Casinos aren't going anywhere, and
> they'll be there the next day, and the day after that,
> and the day after that.

> cheers
> bfb

[Ray]

#1. I spread 1-12. My big money losses are from when I have big bets out. If I didn't spread my bets as big, I wouldn't have lost as much money.

#2. I play six decks, S17, DAS, DOA, No surrender 75% - 85% penetration, aggressivly bumping my bets when the true count is +2 or higher. Is that really a bad game?

#3. I only drop out of a shoe when the true count is -1 or less, or the cut card comes out.

#4. I keep exact records of the money I win and lose. No, not exact number of hours. Maybe I wlll from now on. Is there anything else I should keep track of?

#5. Well, I guess maybe this is the explanation. I just never thought I would be that unlucky so many times.

Sun Runner, the example you gave is the perfect example of what keeps happening to me over and over. Not every time of course, but it does happen so often. I expected things like that to happen since the beginning, but I thought that there would be more winning sessions to offset these losing sessions. There hasn't been.

Thaks for the responses all.

> Not so much brilliant as it is so obvious. True
> brilliance is being able to recognize the obvious.

> I would bet that 90% of those that have spent any time
> at all looking into beating blackjack fall into
> catagories #1 and #2.

> Ray ...

> Last night I backcounted a shoe and got in at +5 with
> three decks to go; less than one deck cut off.

> I lost the next six of seven hands.

> The big cards were coming out all right; all around
> me. The lady I was standing next to had no clue. No
> clue. She draws aces against a six. Must be persuaded
> (not be me) to split them. She draws two more aces.
> Again must be persuaded to split. On two of those four
> aces she draws two really nice soft doubles. Does she
> double? No .. she hits them, both, per the dealer's
> advice.

> She wins all four hands.

> What are ya' gonna do? It happens.

> You can't do much about bigplayers #5 (except
> hopefully play through it)... but #1 through #4 are
> brilliant.