Is there any way to further reduce variance besides playing 2 hands for aprox. 3/4 the standard one hand bet only after wonging in ( ko-4 ) ?
I am unable to find local game any better than 6d das rsa 75 pen. mostly $ 15 & $25 min, occasional $ 10 min.
I am thinking about not splitting or not doubling on some marginal hands, hopefully this will lower variance and provide some cover?
> Is there any way to further reduce variance
> besides playing 2 hands for aprox. 3/4 the
> standard one hand bet only after wonging in
> ( ko-4 ) ?
There are several ways to reduce variance -- smaller bet spread, for example. The problem is, most of them also reduce EV.
> I am unable to find local game any better
> than 6d das rsa 75 pen. mostly $ 15 &
> $25 min, occasional $ 10 min.
Consider weekend getaways. Plenty of low min games in Vegas, Reno, Tunica, Gulf coast, etc.
> I am thinking about not splitting or not
> doubling on some marginal hands, hopefully
> this will lower variance and provide some
> cover?
Again, this will lower variance at the cost of giving up some EV.
If there are any games in your area with surrender, learn hot to use it effectively. This is one of the few rule variations that decreases variance while increasing EV.
First of all, you should understand that playing 2 hands at 3/4 actually increases your variance. Your variance is decreased on each hand, since the bet on each is smaller. But your variance per round, or per hour, is definitely larger. The larger EV makes up for that, so your long run Risk Of Ruin remains the same as 1 hand at 1/1 (or slightly more).
Your short run, "trip" ROR is increased, when playing 2 hands at 3/4, so you need to take along more money for a session of a given length.
I think the reason most people are interested in variance for its effect on short and long term ROR. But you can't calculate ROR without also looking at EV. In other words, if you decrease variance, while at the same time decreasing EV, you may very well increase your ROR! Less money, more chance of going broke.
Don't interpret Parker's comments about less splitting and doubling to be recommendations for a new, safer way to play. Ultimately, if you reduce your EV below zero, your ROR is 100%, even if your variance is zero.
I'm sorry to tell you this, but your best plan to keep from going broke may be to stay far, far away from "6d das rsa 75 pen. mostly $ 15 & $25 min."
ETF
> Don't interpret Parker's comments about less
> splitting and doubling to be
> recommendations for a new, safer way to
> play. Ultimately, if you reduce your EV
> below zero, your ROR is 100%, even if your
> variance is zero.
Absolutely. The only part of my post intended as a recommendation was to seek out games with surrender and consider weekend getaways to find better games.
> Absolutely. The only part of my post
> intended as a recommendation was to seek out
> games with surrender and consider weekend
> getaways to find better games.
No surrender in my area. I can only hit local places while family sleeps. I work 6 days a week, so lost wages, transportation and hotel, I think would eat up my ev, even more than a few strategy changes.
> No surrender in my area. I can only hit
> local places while family sleeps. I work 6
> days a week, so lost wages, transportation
> and hotel, I think would eat up my ev, even
> more than a few strategy changes.
Your concern regarding variance would seem to suggest that, with the higher minimums at the local joints, you are overbetting your bankroll. If you cannot travel to games with lower limits, the only sensible alternative is to not play until you have an adequate bankroll.
It's none of my business, but if your economic circumstances are such that you must work 6 day weeks in order to make ends meet, you are probably better off not playing blackjack at all.
> Your concern regarding variance would seem
> to suggest that, with the higher minimums at
> the local joints, you are overbetting your
> bankroll. If you cannot travel to games with
> lower limits, the only sensible alternative
> is to not play until you have an adequate
> bankroll.
The only reason i mentioned the high minimums was to illustrate why i cant ever play all.
I play to an $ 18000 total bankroll, i just don't want to carry anymore money on me than absolutely nessesary. And also playing with about 13% lifetime ror i am looking for some way to reduce risk of losing lots of high bets.
> It's none of my business, but if your
> economic circumstances are such that you
> must work 6 day weeks in order to make ends
> meet, you are probably better off not
> playing blackjack at all.
telling me "not to play" is no help. I understand that there are better games elsewhere, but i am just trying to figure out the best strategy for the local games that i can play.
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