Nifty: Risk Of Ruin

[Nifty]

Maybe some of you math types can help me out. What would my risk of ruin be: with a bankroll of $2500 betting green with a spread of 1-10. I'm playing a 6 deck shoe game with the dealer standing on soft 17,DAS,DA2,LS,Sp3,SpA3 with about 70+-5 Pen. I'm using KO Prefered (I18 incl.),no A side count or TKO.
Thanks

[Don Schlesinger]

> Maybe some of you math types can help me
> out. What would my risk of ruin be: with a
> bankroll of $2500 betting green with a
> spread of 1-10.

Did I read correctly? Green chips with a $2,500 bank? Pure suicide.

> I'm playing a 6 deck shoe
> game with the dealer standing on soft
> 17,DAS,DA2,LS,Sp3,SpA3 with about 70+-5 Pen.
> I'm using KO Prefered (I18 incl.),no A side
> count or TKO.

Not even back-counting? Playing all?? ROR is about 77%. You can't bet that way.

Don

[Nifty]

> Did I read correctly? Green chips with a
> $2,500 bank? Pure suicide.

> Not even back-counting? Playing all?? ROR is
> about 77%. You can't bet that way.

> Don

Thanks for the response and saving my megre bankroll. What kind of bank should I have, given the above info, to get the ROR to a more tolerable 20%?
With the above bank,betting 5.00 as a unit with a spread of 1 to 10 or betting 10.00 as a unit with a 1 to 10 spread what would the ROR's be for both situations?
I'll be playing about 12 Hours this trip. I do backcount until the count goes positive then I play all.
Thanks

[Don Schlesinger]

> Thanks for the response and saving my megre
> bankroll. What kind of bank should I have,
> given the above info, to get the ROR to a
> more tolerable 20%?

Well, I don't consider 20% acceptable either, but since you asked, you'd need $3,000 to have a 20% ROR playing $5.00 units. So, it follows that you'd need $6,000 for $10 units.

> With the above bank, betting 5.00 as a unit
> with a spread of 1 to 10 or betting 10.00 as
> a unit with a 1 to 10 spread what would the
> ROR's be for both situations?

See above. If you attempted $10 units with a $2,500 bank, ROR would be 51.5%. Fuhgeddaboudit!

> I'll be playing about 12 Hours this trip.

Understand that the above figures are for long-term ROR, not trip ROR.

> I do backcount until the count goes positive
> then I play all.

That's just the tip of the iceberg. You save a little, but not much, unless you have an exit strategy as well.

Don

[Nifty]

> Well, I don't consider 20% acceptable
> either, but since you asked, you'd need
> $3,000 to have a 20% ROR playing $5.00
> units. So, it follows that you'd need $6,000
> for $10 units.

> See above. If you attempted $10 units with a
> $2,500 bank, ROR would be 51.5%.
> Fuhgeddaboudit!

> Understand that the above figures are for
> long-term ROR, not trip ROR.

> That's just the tip of the iceberg. You save
> a little, but not much, unless you have an
> exit strategy as well.

> Don

Thanks for answering my questions Don, Just one more.

"Understand that the above figures are for long-term ROR, not trip ROR."

And for the trip?

[gorilla player]

> Thanks for answering my questions Don, Just
> one more.

> "Understand that the above figures are
> for long-term ROR, not trip ROR."

> And for the trip?

I'm sure Don will give you good advice, but this is another good reason for buying something like CVBJ. The tools include a calculator that can be used to answer these questions for your specific game, bankroll, win goal, etc...

The statistics for all this are _very_ fragile. IE get something slightly wrong and the ROR can be way off. It is really nice to be able to plug in the rules for the game you are going to play, run a sim (CVCX for me, or CVDATA if you use it) and get the variance and whatever, and then start playing with either your betting units and spread, or bankroll, or risk, and let it calculate what you want... This way you can play 200 questions and find the optimal solution for your game, your bankroll, your expected table min, your expected bet spread, your expected ROR, or whatever you want to know... And you can answer each and every "what if" almost instantly to optimize everything to maximize your profit or minimize your risk, or whatever your goal is...

Up until I found CVBJ I would compute this stuff just like everybody else does, from Don's info, and from info about kelly betting, etc. Now it is a _lot_ easier as I don't have to dig out a book, I just plug in numbers, click a button, and voila', there's the answer. Any serious card counter ought to have these tools at his fingertips since they are so cheap, so useful, so easy to use, and so damned accurate...

[Nifty]

> I'm sure Don will give you good advice, but
> this is another good reason for buying
> something like CVBJ. The tools include a
> calculator that can be used to answer these
> questions for your specific game, bankroll,
> win goal, etc...

> The statistics for all this are _very_
> fragile. IE get something slightly wrong and
> the ROR can be way off. It is really nice to
> be able to plug in the rules for the game
> you are going to play, run a sim (CVCX for
> me, or CVDATA if you use it) and get the
> variance and whatever, and then start
> playing with either your betting units and
> spread, or bankroll, or risk, and let it
> calculate what you want... This way you can
> play 200 questions and find the optimal
> solution for your game, your bankroll, your
> expected table min, your expected bet
> spread, your expected ROR, or whatever you
> want to know... And you can answer each and
> every "what if" almost instantly
> to optimize everything to maximize your
> profit or minimize your risk, or whatever
> your goal is...

> Up until I found CVBJ I would compute this
> stuff just like everybody else does, from
> Don's info, and from info about kelly
> betting, etc. Now it is a _lot_ easier as I
> don't have to dig out a book, I just plug in
> numbers, click a button, and voila', there's
> the answer. Any serious card counter ought
> to have these tools at his fingertips since
> they are so cheap, so useful, so easy to
> use, and so damned accurate...

IE? (couldn't resist)
Actually I have CVBJ but I haven't used that component as yet. As you say "IE get something slightly wrong and the ROR can be way off" I thought I would get the info from someone who knows how to use it already, as I am leaving very soon. I'll give it a try when I get back,thanks.In the meantime could you or someone else give me an answer? It would be appreciated greatly.

[gorilla player]

> IE? (couldn't resist)
> Actually I have CVBJ but I haven't used that
> component as yet. As you say "IE get
> something slightly wrong and the ROR can be
> way off" I thought I would get the info
> from someone who knows how to use it
> already, as I am leaving very soon. I'll
> give it a try when I get back,thanks.In the
> meantime could you or someone else give me
> an answer? It would be appreciated greatly.

Mr. BJ (Don) can probably answer this simply.

Here's what I'd need...

1. exact rules you want to play or are going to play. IE DAS, etc. Don't forget penetration. If you aren't sure, give me a range and I can plug in extreme points.

2. give me as much info about BR as possible. IE either total BR, session BR times # of sessions, acceptable ROR, etc. Omit the thing you want to know, of course, and that's the thing I'll ask it to compute.

It took me a long time to discover that this kind of information is the most important part of all for successful card counting... There's no way I have anywhere near the understanding of all of this stuff that the pros have and use regularly, but one thing is for sure, I'm working on closing that gap. The tools are not that expensive. IE given the choice 20 years ago of buying a "system" for $200, or CVBJ for less than half of that, it would have been an absolute no-brainer. the proper software tools are absolutely essential.

Note that I'm not a shill for Norm's software either, I've just had the opportunity to use it and it works great. There may well be other packages that are as good or better, I have no idea. But one thing is for sure, the tools I have mentioned do, in fact, work and work exceptionally well. I'd bet that I have improved my counting speed more in the past 2-3 months than in the first 3+ years that I counted. And now, when I go to tackle my favorite $10 6d shoe game, or my favorite $25 DD game, I go with a pretty good idea of how much money I'd better have for that table limit, and how much I need to spread to produce a reasonable profit for that game. Now I know that if "heat" drives my spread below what is needed to win, I have to leave as I am not about to contribute to a casino's bottom line voluntarily.

I will say forget the hourly win rate crap. Variance will absolutely guarantee you will never see that for a playing session, except on rare random occasions. But it does give you an idea about long-term expectation...

[Nifty]

> Mr. BJ (Don) can probably answer this
> simply.

> Here's what I'd need...

> 1. exact rules you want to play or are going
> to play. IE DAS, etc. Don't forget
> penetration. If you aren't sure, give me a
> range and I can plug in extreme points.

Thanks for your offer to calculate the info, I will figure out the program when I get back.
Here is part of my original question.

"I'm playing a 6 deck shoe game with the dealer standing on soft 17,DAS,DA2,LS,Sp3,SpA3 with about 70+-5 Pen. I'm using KO Prefered (I18 incl.),no A side count or TKO."

> 2. give me as much info about BR as
> possible. IE either total BR, session BR
> times # of sessions, acceptable ROR, etc.
> Omit the thing you want to know, of course,
> and that's the thing I'll ask it to compute.

I'm going to LV for four days and was originally going to use $500 per session with a total BR of $2500. I can tap into another 1500 without spending the mortgage money. I was originally going to bet Green. After Dons reply however, this doesnt seem realistic and I will have to scale it down to get a reasonable ROR. I am willing to accept a high ROR (say 10% to 20%) as I realize that my trip bankroll is small.

Lets say $500.00 per session betting 10.00 units with a spread of 1-10. 12, 1 hour sessions with a total BR of 2500.
or
$500.00 per session betting green (I'm curious) spreading 1-10 with 12, one hour sessions whith a BR of $4000
or
500.00 per session betting a 5.00 unit with 1-10 spread same 12, one hour sessions, total BR of 2500.

> It took me a long time to discover that this
> kind of information is the most important
> part of all for successful card counting...
> There's no way I have anywhere near the
> understanding of all of this stuff that the
> pros have and use regularly, but one thing
> is for sure, I'm working on closing that
> gap. The tools are not that expensive. IE
> given the choice 20 years ago of buying a
> "system" for $200, or CVBJ for
> less than half of that, it would have been
> an absolute no-brainer. the proper software
> tools are absolutely essential.

As mentioned I have CVBJ,KO Blackjack,and Blackjack trainer. I agree CVBJ is vastly superior. Rather than deal with stats in depth I have spent my time practicing and becoming a competent AP. I must say though, I am looking forward to exploring further aspects of CVBJ in greater depth. Thanks for drawing that to my attention as I have mostly used the drills and the game itself. Like yourself I started years ago after reading "Beat the Dealer" in 1969, and learning how to count 5's and 10's. The modern software and systems are like a breath of fresh air.

> Note that I'm not a shill for Norm's
> software either, I've just had the
> opportunity to use it and it works great.
> There may well be other packages that are as
> good or better, I have no idea. But one
> thing is for sure, the tools I have
> mentioned do, in fact, work and work
> exceptionally well. I'd bet that I have
> improved my counting speed more in the past
> 2-3 months than in the first 3+ years that I
> counted. And now, when I go to tackle my
> favorite $10 6d shoe game, or my favorite
> $25 DD game, I go with a pretty good idea of
> how much money I'd better have for that
> table limit, and how much I need to spread
> to produce a reasonable profit for that
> game. Now I know that if "heat"
> drives my spread below what is needed to
> win, I have to leave as I am not about to
> contribute to a casino's bottom line
> voluntarily.

> I will say forget the hourly win rate crap.
> Variance will absolutely guarantee you will
> never see that for a playing session, except
> on rare random occasions. But it does give
> you an idea about long-term expectation...

[Don Schlesinger]

> Lets say $500.00 per session betting 10.00
> units with a spread of 1-10. 12, 1 hour
> sessions with a total BR of 2500.

You're fine with this. Trip ruin is very small (1.07%), because you're playing only 12 hours. It's hard to lose 250 units in 12 hours, but you can try! :-)

> or
> $500.00 per session betting green (I'm
> curious) spreading 1-10 with 12, one hour
> sessions whith a BR of $4000

Trip ROR = 19.34%.

> or
> 500.00 per session betting a 5.00 unit with
> 1-10 spread same 12, one hour sessions,
> total BR of 2500.

Not necessary to be this conservative, again, because the trip is so short.

Don

[Clown]

Hi guys. I am wondering if you could be kind enough to perform a ROR analysis for me? Although after Don's last post, I think my trip will be within acceptable boundaries (I'd like trip ROR under 3%). Also I am interested in how capping BR for individual sessions affects total ROR, as I suppose running out of your session BR just as a high count is in effect could be a poor move in the long run.

I am playing 6D shoe games, ranging from S17-DAS-Late Surr-RSA (best case scenario) to H17-DAS-No Surr-RSA (worst case). Playing $5 min with 1-12 spread or $10 with 1-6 spread.

8 sessions, >5 hours each, session BR $500, trip BR $4000.

I will understand if I get a "buy the software, cheapskate" reply. But I am a cheapskate, bargain hunting penny pincher.

Thanks in advance.

[Clown]

I am using hi-lo with I18.

Might also experiment with how your MGPH (margaritas per hour) affect the house edge. Now if you could program that into a software analysis, say, 1 alcohol unit creating 1 mistake in BS per hour, with the liver processing 1 unit per hour, then 1x2 unit margarita per hour over four hours would give you a whopping 4 mistakes per hour in the last hour. I might do some work on this, AT HOME. I bet the casinos have done this already.