chris: expected value

[paranoid android]

> so after playing 500 $1 hands i think my
> expected value is going to be a certain
> amount as opposed to me going broke.

You're right. With the bonuses you have an edge (actually, I haven't done the math, but I assume it to be true). I was referring to the actual play. Each hand you play has a negative EV. You hope that this doesn't wipe out your bonus before you've played the required wager amount. Increasing the amount wagered per hand won't increase your overall EV. You're EV will be the same for the total sum of money you are required to wager.

So, while EV doesn't change, whether you do it fast with large bets or slow with small bets, your risk is the least when you are betting the minimum. On the other hand, your hourly EV will increase if you make larger bets since you can meet the wagering requirements in a shorter amount of time (but as I said, your risk is higher). But the overall EV will remain the same.

[paranoid android]

Your overall EV at the end of meeting the wagering requirements will be the same regardless of bet size. Your hourly EV and your risk will increase by making bigger bets.

> Yes, with the game. But with the bonus and
> the chance of busting so much higher, having
> the wagering requirements met earlier would
> make up for that-- or would it? I don't know
> for sure and I'm just going stop right now
> before I dig myself deeper!