> Yeah, but look what it has done to you. :-)
You might be right....but Damn it feels good
> Yeah, but look what it has done to you. :-)
You might be right....but Damn it feels good
Regardless of how good anyone is at blackjack,it's almost impossible to only have a 15K bank and expect to go pro. Expenses,time and variance will soon take it's toll.
Stocks as well as blackjack have a factor of risk involved,in my opinion both are considered gambling. Stocks have lower variance with no expenses,blackjack higher variance with expenses. The results of blackjack can have a higher ev, but at the cost of variance and expense.
As a card counter,I find it very difficult when traveling to put in the table hours as easy you have. I have a few basic questions.
Are your hours the actual time of "action" or the time you spend at casinos?
Is your bankroll based on potential future income?
What's your usual trip bank,risk of ruin and bet spread?
Thanks,
Brick
> I am a full time pro. I can do it, you can
> do it... maybe...?
> I speak of foreign experience so... lots of
> travellings. In fact, I spend at least 300
> days at hotels. How much capital you need?
> Well, it depends... on your skill level and
> how many good places you know. I think I can
> make it with $15,000 with my skill level
> (trackings) and the knowledge I have now
> (11,000 hours playing, travelling to 80
> cities, playing 400 casinos). I am not using
> $15k though, I use $400k... I doubt you can
> make it cause you seemed not have enough
> skill and information... thus bankroll.
> So... the good news is it is doable, the bad
> news are you can't do it under current
> circumstances.
> My advices?
> 1. BJ card counting is an investment, $15k
> is way too low if you want to make, say,
> $50k a year. If you plan investing into
> stocks, how much money you need to invest to
> make $50k a year? $500k? BJ card counting is
> much safer than stock investment... how can
> you expect making the same amount, at lower
> risk, putting much much less capital in?
> 2. Skill
> The better skill you have, the more places
> you can play and you can get more from a
> particular game. I played at a casino that
> my friend went there, won small, and left.
> He considered the game to be mediocre. I won
> over $20,000 before I was barred which is OK
> with me cause I don't intend going back,
> there are 2,000 casinos left for me to go.
> The difference between I and my friedn is
> skill. He went to 15 countries in two
> months, finding most games unplayable. I
> went to 2 countries (among his 15) after
> him, made several times more than he with
> 25% of his time. How to develop my skill
> level? Experience of 11,000 hours play...
> I will not teach you or help you becoming a
> pro like myself, no reason for me to do it.
> I will tell you it can be done, you decdide
> whether you can do it or not.
You say you play with
> 15k, but have 400k at your disposal.
I said I can survive with $15k, not I play with $15k. I play with $400k... I consider BJ a good investment and am willing to put in $400k... plus $25k I won last month : )
> Allowing for comparisons to my bankroll and
> play, which is much less, I have a very
> difficult time deciding to play again after
> I have had a particularly bad swing. Say,
> losing %80 of my daily bankroll. The shallow
> mathematical advantage plays heavily upon my
> mind. Yes, indeed, I consider stocks where I
> am sure I can do better than the %1-%2
> advatage we sometimes enjoy if we play well.
You are wrong on 1 to 2% we enjoy at BJ. The 1 to 2% is per minute against 1 to 2% of our bankroll... so we are talking about 100 to 200% per annum vs. stock's 5 to 10% p.a. I am at my all time high most of the time... I didn't have much negative swing for a long time... I am knocking on wood... How I avoid bad swing? With better skills and better information about where are good games: I played mostly good games (perhaps half of the time on positive-off-the-top games, 40% on trackable games, 10% on finding good games). Good games such as ES (10 and A) have lower risk, tracking grant me some times 3% positive-off-the-top... I thus have much less bad swings. : )
> Regardless of how good anyone is at
> blackjack,it's almost impossible to only
> have a 15K bank and expect to go pro.
> Expenses,time and variance will soon take
> it's toll.
I didn't say I use $15k as my bankroll, I use $425K now.
> Stocks as well as blackjack have a factor of
> risk involved,in my opinion both are
> considered gambling.
How you differentiate gambling and investment? Anything with risk involved?
>Stocks have lower
> variance with no expenses,blackjack higher
> variance with expenses. The results of
> blackjack can have a higher ev, but at the
> cost of variance and expense.
When you have 1% advantage at BJ, you bet 0.78% of your banroll with one Kelly. You get a return of 1% per minute. You invest 40 or 50% of you money into stocks or stock funds, you get 10, 15% ev per year from stocks. Why you think BJ has higher variance against your bankroll?
> As a card counter,I find it very difficult
> when traveling to put in the table hours as
> easy you have. I have a few basic questions.
> Are your hours the actual time of
> "action" or the time you spend at
> casinos?
Action time. The reasons I can put in more hours because I play many positive-off-the-top games, which mean small spread, and many trackable games, which mean big bets off-the-top. Some times I play at casinos with my off-the-top bets as my biggest bets for that shoe.
> Is your bankroll based on potential future
> income?
I commit my bankroll based on how much I have and how much casinos will take?
> What's your usual trip bank,risk of ruin and
> bet spread?
Trip bank $50k, risk of ruin small, bet spread small.
> Thanks,
You are welcomed.
Someone must have addressed the problem, or perhaps the computer you were using was set to run an anti-virus program automatically at regular intervals. Your recent posts were clean.
> I didn't say I use $15k as my bankroll, I
> use $425K now.
I understand,but you said if you have only a 15k bank you can be a pro. it's not that easy.
> How you differentiate gambling and
> investment? Anything with risk involved?
Yes,the less risk,the less gamble.
> When you have 1% advantage at BJ, you bet
> 0.78% of your banroll with one Kelly.
Betting with full kelly is risky.
>You get a return of 1% per minute.
How do you arrive at this? It would be nice if we could walk up to a blackjack table and collect our ev(expected value)every minute but this dont happen in the real world.
> You invest 40
> or 50% of you money into stocks or stock
> funds, you get 10, 15% ev per year from
> stocks.
There is no promise to be made you'll get anything in return.
>Why you think BJ has higher variance
> against your bankroll?
I must say you've been very lucky to not understand why I would think something like this to be true.
> Action time. The reasons I can put in more
> hours because I play many
> positive-off-the-top games, which mean small
> spread, and many trackable games, which mean
> big bets off-the-top. Some times I play at
> casinos with my off-the-top bets as my
> biggest bets for that shoe.
Where I'm from positive off the top games dont exist, if they did I'd be rich. Finding good conditions dont mean I'm able to sit at the tables 24/7.
How do you manage to find these regular off the top BJ games that give the player an edge? In the USA they dont exist. Most of the BJ games overseas are worse,or worse than terrible. What countries are they at? Under my conditions(and most others) it is much more difficult to say "I'm Going Pro" than your conditions.
Brick
Don't be put off - it is possible.
I spent the whole of last year traveling around to different countries playing black jack.
Off a $30k bank roll I paid for the trip and still had $35k to spare.
I suceeded by keeping all my traveling expenses down to a rock bottom. I stayed with friends and in youth hostels. I used discount airlines to get around.
To survive on a small bankroll you must make wonging the bulk of your play. You must focus on seeking out the best games and leave as soon as conditions go bad.
I had to act in a very anti social way in may places and just accept that I was going to get kicked out and it was just a question of when.
It involves long hours of standing around smoky casinos until your feet are raw and your eyes hurt.
You must also move around alot and expect to be kicked out of lots of places.
It can be a bit lonley and depressing sometimes if your in a foreign place by yourself and bad luck sets in for a couple of weeks.
On the plus side you have the freedom and flexibility to do what you want when you want. And travel can be very exciting.
You must have the will power to keep playing no matter what happens (As long as you have the edge).
You must also have all the fundamentals solidly mastered.
15k is a pretty small bank roll but I think you could make $50 per hour out if you stick to wonging.
It could even be as much as $100 per hour if you stumble onto a great game somewhere.
So basically if you have the determination I believe you could do it.
But if you the sort of person that likes habits routines, security and a social life than you might be better off in a normal job.
> I didn't say I use $15k as my bankroll, I
> use $425K now.
OK, let's keep that thought for a moment. Your bank is $425,000.
>When you have 1% advantage at BJ, you bet
0.78% of your banroll with one Kelly.
So far, so good.
>You get a return of 1% per minute.
That's a grotesquely incorrect statement. Really bizarre that you would make it. You get a 1% return on the total action you put across the table. So, are you saying that, each minute, you bet $425,000??
You might want to re-think your statement.
Don
A hard-core wonging approach is often the best choice for those who are underbankrolled. As you point out, this is not a particularily enjoyable way to play the game, and requires a great deal of self-discipline.
It also requires a thick skin. People often do not appreciate someone jumping into their game mid-shoe. Pit critters sometimes take a similar view. But you are there to make money, not friends.
What I find interesting is that your story is no different from what I hear from the high stakes pros with the six figure bankrolls - except that they get to stay in nicer hotels!
> OK, let's keep that thought for a moment.
> Your bank is $425,000.
> 0.78% of your banroll with one Kelly.
> So far, so good.
> That's a grotesquely incorrect statement.
> Really bizarre that you would make it. You
> get a 1% return on the total action you put
> across the table. So, are you saying that,
> each minute, you bet $425,000??
> You might want to re-think your statement
I am saying I get 1% on my action at that hand on average in the long run, not on my total bankroll. sorry for my Chinglish.
I know SM personally, and what it has done for him is take him from a street tramp to a top notch world class professional.
Believe me, for some people, this is exactly the right profession.
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