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Thread: It only hurts if you think about it.

  1. #1


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    It only hurts if you think about it.

    How long will it take to make a Million Dollars if your AVERAGE bet is:
    $5 @ 1 1/2 % attainable advantage? If my calculations are correct it would take 13,333,333.3 hands.
    @ $10 average it would take 6,666,666.6 hands.
    @ $20 it takes 3,333,333.3 hands
    @ $25 it takes 2,666,666,6 hands
    @ $50 it takes 1,333,333,3 hands
    @ $75 it takes 888,888.8 hands
    @ $100 it takes 666,666,.6 hands
    @ $125 it takes 533,333.3 hands
    @ $150 it takes 444,444.4 hands
    @ $175 it takes 385,232.3 hands
    @ $200 it takes 333,333.3 hands
    @ $250 it takes 266,666.6 hands
    @ $300 it takes 222,222.2 hands
    @ $350 it takes 190,476.2 hands
    @ $400 it takes 166,666.6 hands
    @ $500 it takes 133,333.3 hands
    @ $600 it takes 111,111.1 hands
    @ $700 it takes 95,238.1 hands
    @ $800 it takes 83,333.3 hands
    @ $900 it takes 74,074.1 hands
    @ $1000 it takes 66,666.6 hands
    @ $1500 it takes 44,444.4 hands
    @ $2000 it takes 33,333.3 hands
    @ $2500 it takes 26,666.6 hands
    @ $3000 it takes 22,222.2 hands
    @ $4000 it takes 16,666.6 hands
    @ $5000 it takes 13,333.3 hands
    @ $ 10,000 it takes 6,666.6 hands
    Again if my calculations are correct, it show how silly the casinos really are in worrying about the players. Divide by how many hands per hour you play to get the hourly rate.

    falling star

  2. #2
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Check out the link to the wizard of odds. Scroll down to "Don't waste your money", the third paragraph. A simulated experiment betting BR proportional starting at $100 and $1000 for both 1% advantage and 2% advantage.

    83% didn't go bust before having $1,000,000 starting with $100 and a 1% advantage. It took an average number of bets of 174,972 bets (364.5 days, 8 hours/day, 60 bets/hour).

    98% reach $1,000,000 starting with $100 and a 2% advantage. It took an average of 63,755 bets (132.9 days, hours/day, 60 bets/hour).

    99% reach $1,000,000 starting at $1000 and a 1% advantage. It took an average of 137,208 bets (285.8 days, 8 hours/day, 60 bets/hour).

    99.9996% reach $1,000,000 starting at $1,000 and a 2% advantage. It took an average of 46,428 bets (96.7 days, 8 hours/day, 60 bets/hour).

    The rest go bust.

    http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

  3. #3


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    The purpose of the post had nothing to do with progressions. It was intended to show how many hands a counter, with a 1 1/2% advantage, would have to play to show a million $ profit using the average bet levels shown.
    falling star

  4. #4
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by falling star View Post
    The purpose of the post had nothing to do with progressions. It was intended to show how many hands a counter, with a 1 1/2% advantage, would have to play to show a million $ profit using the average bet levels shown.
    falling star
    The wizards experiment wasn't about progressions but about showing how betting in proportion to your bankroll with a constant advantage results in almost certain success. The lesson of ROR is made clear when you compare the success rate of of each starting BR at 1% and 2% advantage. Notice how much quicker the mark is made betting proportional to your bankroll. Starting with $100 betting peanuts at a 1% advantage the average 174,972 bets. You are betting independent of your current BR and betting an average of $100 at 1.5% advantage but the average is 666,666.6 bets.

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