BJ21addict: Bet ramp/ROR/LV mini-report

[BJ21addict]

1. Wong in his PBJ play all examples (which is fine) uses a bet ramp of $10, 25, 50, 75, 100 for TC-ve, 0-1, 2, 3, 4. But, why bet $25 @ 0? wouldn't $15 or 20 better in reality?

2. I have played BJ for the last ten years, all over the world (& reported under different names-mostly at BJ21-trying to keep a low profile having been backed off a few times), count (Hi-Lo with I-18; some limited shuffle tracking, in countries where the shuffle is simple) and kept records for the last 6 years. Net win over 1000 units-thanks to all the Guru's here (best is Don's SCORE!), gradually went from playing red to green and now some black (2D). I am hoping to use a bet ramp of: 2 hands of $25 to start with or zero count, $50 @ TC=1; $100 @ 2; $150 @ 3 & $200 @ 4 and one hand of $25 with -ve @ 6D and of course take a break if it is real -ve (All this depends on heat). At 1D & 2D can use a 1:4 & 1:8 ramp. Any comments? I have a bankroll of $50K but carry (or have credit lines with a number of casinos) typically about $10K per session. What is the risk of ruin? Thanks for any advice.

3. Recent trip to vegas was very good! Overall won about 40 units in 3 days-playing about 10 hours/day with lots of ups and downs as expected.
LL-2 winning & 1 losing sessions-all 1D
4Q-2 winning & 1 losing sessions-all 1D
LVH-2 winning @ 2D & 2 losing @ 6D sessions
MB-2 winning @ 2D & 2 losing @ 6D sessions

I won @ 1D & 2D and lost 6D? I did play the MB $50 min and $100 min 2D weekend and recovered the 6D losses and more! Beware!-MB has H17 6D, I played only S17 but 2D is always H17, rsa, ds, ls. I seem to lose at 6D? any commmets?

I also have noticed that patience and perseverance are two important qualities for a successful counter-because of the huge swings- you need to hang in there with a huge bankroll (not in front of you as chips!). I used to to get up after I loose some-but not anymore!

[Magician]

> 1. Wong in his PBJ play all examples (which
> is fine) uses a bet ramp of $10, 25, 50, 75,
> 100 for TC-ve, 0-1, 2, 3, 4. But, why bet
> $25 @ 0? wouldn't $15 or 20 better in
> reality?

Yes. The bet ramp in PBJ is not optimal.

> 2. ... What is the risk of ruin? Thanks
> for any advice.

At your level of play you should already have software to calculate ROR, optimal bet ramps, etc. Check out the online catalog.

[BJ21addict]

for the help-I will look at buying the relevant software. I do have Dr. Wong's old programs but that may not do the ROR. I only wanted an approx answer for the ROR.

Looking at Don's BJA- Chapter on ROR, for the smaller session roll-it looks as if ROR is under 6% and for the entire BR it is almost zero! <0.1%. If you double the bank roll for a given set of conditions, the ROR reduces more than half! Is that because of the bell shape normal distribution curve?

[Don Schlesinger]

>If you double the bank roll for a given set of conditions, the ROR reduces more than half! Is that because of the bell shape normal distribution curve?

It's because the formula for ROR is exponential. So, if you double the bank, the ROR, which is a value less than one, gets squared, which is to say, it gets considerably smaller. For example, if ROR were 15%, doubling the bank would reduce the risk to 2.25%.

Don

[BJ21addict]

Thanks, Don

Your book, "BJ Attack" is the most valuable in my BJ library