Sun Runner: Bank Roll

[Sun Runner]

I recently posted the following elsewhere. Since some here don't go there, I have posted it again and would like your thoughts.

Thanks ...

I know a guy [ ] who maintains a rough $5,000 BR, spreads red 1 to 12, and grinds along. That is roughly an 80 max bet BR.

He could afford to lose and replace that BR, say, ten times in his life without wrecking the nest.

If the new found wisdom is correct, he could now work out of a lifetime $50K BR, spread quarters 1 to 12, and be working out of a 165 max bet BR.

Considering deviation, the long run, etc, would it be foolish to now play to a $50,000 BR -one $5,000 session at a time?

I guess the scary part is each "session" BR would roughly contain only 15 max bets. I've seen 15 max bets disappear before; it would mean the guy would be out of the game awhile before accumulating the next "session."

Maybe the question is, do you get your jollies from being able to play when you want [having a BR at the ready] or from blasting them with for all your worth, figuratively speaking?

Thanks for your thoughts.

[Ed Tice]

Here is my thoughts!

If you are in a position where you have enough financial certainty that you can put up a 50K bankroll out of your regular income, why would you want to quit and play full time.

As far as "getting your jollies," there are four types of blackjack players... ploppies who don['t know what they are doing... ploppies who can play close (or even perfect) basic strategy, counters who play as an intellectual challenge, and counters who play professionally. All have different mentalities.

Ed

> I recently posted the following elsewhere.
> Since some here don't go there, I have
> posted it again and would like your
> thoughts.

> Thanks ...

> I know a guy [ ] who maintains a rough
> $5,000 BR, spreads red 1 to 12, and grinds
> along. That is roughly an 80 max bet BR.

> He could afford to lose and replace that BR,
> say, ten times in his life without wrecking
> the nest.

> If the new found wisdom is correct, he could
> now work out of a lifetime $50K BR, spread
> quarters 1 to 12, and be working out of a
> 165 max bet BR.

> Considering deviation, the long run, etc,
> would it be foolish to now play to a $50,000
> BR -one $5,000 session at a time?

> I guess the scary part is each
> "session" BR would roughly contain
> only 15 max bets. I've seen 15 max bets
> disappear before; it would mean the guy
> would be out of the game awhile before
> accumulating the next "session."

> Maybe the question is, do you get your
> jollies from being able to play when you
> want [having a BR at the ready] or from
> blasting them with for all your worth,
> figuratively speaking?

> Thanks for your thoughts.

[Parker]

First off, it is necessary to clarify just what is meant by "replaceable." Is this simply a quick trip to the bank to make a $5K withdrawal, or does it involve taking a break from playing and setting aside, say, $500 per week, until another $5K is accumulated.

Then there is the matter of "comfort zone." If we are going to treat $5K as a "session bankroll," then we must accept the possibility of losing $5K in a single session. Losing $5K in a few hours time is not a pleasant sensation, to say the least.

Finally, there is the bottom line, the very motivation for playing at all in the first place. Is it simply to make a few extra dollars and score a few comps, or is the goal to extract as much from the casinos as possible?

Heat may even be a factor. Higher stakes will draw more heat and possible back-offs. Is our player putting in most of the hours at a handful of local joints, where a series of back-offs will effectively end his play, or does he travel and make frequent trips to Las Vegas, so that a few back-offs are no big deal?

I don't think the question can be answered with a simple "Do it" or "Don't do it," at least not without a lot more information.

[SOTSOG]

Maybe your "friend" is comfortable with the bet levels a 5K bankroll provides, and comfortable with the % chance he could lose it all.

Even though he might have a theoritical 50K bankroll available, would he be comfortable betting at those levels?

Also, if he has 5K session bankrolls betting at a 50K bank level, then it is 100% certain that he will lose a couple of those session bankrolls 100%.

So you got to factor in time lost not playing while rebuilding the 5K session bank compared to continious play with the lower bet levels.

Have your "friend" take 5K and go throw it away (or just make a very generous donation to a good charity). If he can do that without blinking, then yes, he has what it takes. He should rebuild another 5K session bank and start playing it like he has a 50K bank.

[ET Fan]

... is the amount of money that would cause you to give up gambling forever, if it were lost.

Now, hard core theoreticians will say everything in life is a gamble (banks could go under, currency could plummet in value, etc.), so your entire net worth -- including even future earnings -- is your bankroll. But this is far too rigorous for most people. Most people don't have 1000% faith in the math, or their own ability, or the honesty of the deal, randomness of cards, etc.

Furthermore, it makes perfect sense for young people to have less risk aversion than old geezers like me. Then, as your bankroll grows, you may find your desired lifestyle grows almost as quickly! So the static model doesn't really work for most people.

Your friend should know that whatever BR he chooses, that money is really at risk. You don't need it, so it can sit around looking pretty. You need it to leverage your advantage. But the paradox is, to use it, you have to lose it! If you don't lose it, at some point on your road to riches, in a theoretical sense, it's been wasted.

Financial advisers do studies, and come up with numbers like one-tenth Kelly, or even less, on the full net worth model. But can a study of 100 investors' average comfort levels determine YOUR level?

It's subjective.

ETF

[methodman]

> what if it goes bad when do you stop?
> what if it goes great when do you stop?
> sure we have the slight advantage and all,but we all know we can give away the gains quick..

[SOTSOG]

> what if it goes bad when do you stop?
You should stop when the losses cause you emotional discomfort.

> what if it goes great when do you stop?
You should stop shortly before you win the entire casino. Too many headaches.

> sure we have the slight advantage and all,but we all know we can give away the gains quick..
That is why, if you are playing your bankroll to stict Kelly rules, you don't go and blow your winnings. Winnings are merely added to your bankroll, that way you have that much more "cushion" when things go bad.

"Blackjack Attack" by Don Schlesinger is still probably the best text when it comes to bankroll management.

[methodman]

[Sun Runner]

To Ed Tice:
If I gave the impression I was quitting my day job and hitting the road full time, no, far from it.

To Parker:
Replaceable means losing the $5,000 BR and taking 24 months to replace.

The goal is to extract as much as possible -I have never worked comps that hard -I like to be in, out, and down the road. When I walk through in my swimsuit I don't want them hollering "Hey Sun Runner, how's it goin'?"

I am not one that enjoys going to the casino to "pick up a few dollars." I would rather be doing something else. I do enjoy travelling, and going to the casino, thinking I have the opportunity to knock then dead at their own game. I also enjoy the perceived notion that I am doing it right under their nose and they can't see me. But truth be told, at my current level of exposure, I don't think they really care about me being there anyway.

I have been spreading red, learning the game, and looking toward that day when I'm taking out a couple hundred an hour and not $25. bigplayer's post eleswhere just got me to thinking -always a dangerous endeavour.

Session BR -I recognize the possibility of losing a session BR, believe me. It would be a big time bummer. Not because I needed that money but because I hate to lose at anything and I would be out of the game awhile.

Heat. I don't know but that was one variable I set aside for now. I realize I play red -and green is no doubt different. But I play sporadically and in varied (to some degree) locale. I just don't see that as part of the decision tree -yet.

Question: I've never seriously played green before for long periods of time. Spreading $25 to $300 on 6Ds -is that really more difficult heat wise?

To SOTSOG:
With all due respect, I don't equate losing a $5,000 session at BJ and giving a $5,000 gift to charity as a measure of anything. I have done the later, and don't think the former would wreck my brain. It would be a long dull boring wait till the BR was replaced tho.

In summary -I just got to wondering why I'm playing now with the small BR that's in my hand, grinding it out with $60 max bets when I could be playing out of a lifetime BR with $300 max bets and, I think, less risk (lifetime), if I'm willing to go 24 months in between "sessions" once, twice, or three times in my life.

Maybe ET Fan defined it for me .. the ultimate defintion of BR. If I lost my BJ BR tomorrow, life would go on as it does today, I could save another one, and all would still be well in my world -a little boring in some regard until the next BR is accumulated -but life would go on.

SO -I guess I'm back to the original question:

Is playing out of a 15 max bet session BR foolish? And the answer is -that's basically what I do now. Therefore I must trully be afraid of losing that BR. And I think for me, it is because I have expounded to those that know I play that BJ is beatable over the LR; and tapping out for a while would be the ultimate vindication of those detractors that I imagine we all have around us.

Huh. I have met the enemy; and it is me.

Thanks again.

[SammyBoy]

Sun Runner,

I'm in the same situation, where I have a small BR, but it is replenishable. I play at the same stakes as you but would love to be able to move to the green chip level. I look at my current "grind it out" play and realize that everytime I play I get better. I will be a much better player in 2 years than I am right now. I guess what I'm trying to say is: "do you feel confident enough in your current abilities to play green?" At this point I don't feel I am there yet. I'm switching from Hi/Lo to AOII because I play alot of SD and DD. I hope to be a green chipper in the next 6 months, but until I have all the indices and Ace side count mastered I will continue to chip away $10 at a time.

[Brick]

Be carefull about these mere winnings...If one choses to play full kelly as expressed in BJA (13.5% ror). These mere winnings and TOTAL bankroll will ultimately surmise to dust. Instead of adding more cushion for the pushing, you're adding more fuel to the fire.

> You should stop when the losses cause you
> emotional discomfort.
> You should stop shortly before you win the
> entire casino. Too many headaches.
> That is why, if you are playing your
> bankroll to stict Kelly rules, you don't go
> and blow your winnings. Winnings are merely
> added to your bankroll, that way you have
> that much more "cushion" when
> things go bad.

> "Blackjack Attack" by Don
> Schlesinger is still probably the best text
> when it comes to bankroll management.

[Sun Runner]

It does depend on many things. For me, it is seeming to make no sense to grind it out IF I'm willing to lose a "session BR" and then wait patiently to accumulate the next one.

When my BR grows to the point that replacing it out of current earnings is not realsitic, THEN should I start managing that BR as if it were my last.

Seems to me.

Well enough of that -again, thanks to all for the input.

[ET Fan]