quark: What is the typical "break even" bet spread?

[quark]

I live fairly close to Tunica and spend some time there playing shoes with KO and a 1 to 10-12 spread. However... there are times when I'm out with a group all playing Blackjack. None are counters, most not even basic strategy (although I have given out laminated BS cards to all who will listen.)

On these outings, it's more of an evening of fun! Not too serious, but the throng of people with me (male and female) makes "attacking" the casino somewhat difficult, so I generally play in shoes I might otherwise leave, no wonging, and maybe drinking a bit much.

I was wondering... on these trips what the break even bet spread is. I have never heard this topic ever discussed. I am mostly interested in having fun but NOT playing a losing game.

AT the typical games, with typical rules, using KO what would that spread be? My "guess" would be something like this:

Single deck 1 to 2
Double deck 1 to 3
Six deck shoe 1 to 5
Eight deck shoe (don't have a clue... maybe even as much as 1 to 8

Is this even close? Too conservative?

[Magician]

> AT the typical games, with typical rules,
> using KO what would that spread be? My
> "guess" would be something like
> this:

> Single deck 1 to 2
> Double deck 1 to 3
> Six deck shoe 1 to 5
> Eight deck shoe (don't have a clue... maybe
> even as much as 1 to 8

BJRM2002 is good for this. I chose the best and worst available rules and pen for each number of decks:

1D, S17, DOA, 35 cards - 1:1
1D, H17, D10, 31 cards - 1:2
2D, S17, DAS, 62 cards - 1:2
2D, H17, NDAS, 70 cards - 1:3
6D, S17, DAS, LS, 5.0/6 - 1:2
6D, H17, DAS, NS, 4.5/6 - 1:4
8D, S17, DAS, LS, 6.5/8 - 1:3
8D, H17, DAS, NS, 6.0/8 - 1:5

The indicated spreads have a theoretical positive expectation, but this leaves no room for mistakes, tips, expenses, etc. You might want to sit out a few hands on negetive counts as well.

[Sonny]

> I am mostly interested in having fun but NOT
> playing a losing game.

Also, be careful not to play like this too often, or for too long. If your goal is always to break even, then your ROR is incredibly high. If you are not earning enough in your good sessions to offset the bad ones, then the swings from your bad sessions will destroy you. In this case, playing an "even" game, or even one with a miniscule advantage, can still mean playing a losing game.

As long as you are only playing this way occasionally then you should be fine. Still, I would follow Magician's advice about sitting out a few hands here and there. If you are joking around with your friends then it will not look to unusual, and it will help make up for any drunken mistakes you might make.

-Sonny-

[quark]

> 1D, S17, DOA, 35 cards - 1:1

My "guess" would be this low spread would coincide with being unable to FIND this game anywhere.

> 8D, H17, DAS, NS, 6.0/8 - 1:5

Even the AC game is "beatable" with a low spread. Amazing!

You know... it's always amazed me that people talk of avoiding the eight deckers in favot of the six deck shoe... in other words... DON'T PLAY eight decks. But... I bet they used to say that when most of the shoes were four decks and they went to six. Funny...

> The indicated spreads have a theoretical
> positive expectation, but this leaves no
> room for mistakes, tips, expenses, etc. You
> might want to sit out a few hands on
> negetive counts as well.

I realize that... and wasn't intending on playing a break even game... just wanted to know WHAT break even was.

I'm very impressed with your answer. Either BJRM is awesome OR you spent a lot of time on this. Either way... I appreciate it!

[quark]

to Snyder's "oppotition betting". Bet Big at high counts... bet LOW (or leave) at small counts... but in the intermediate range (say - 1 to +1 true count, Hi-Lo) bet "randomly". Great for cover... AND it costs nothing in the long run. Right?

> Also, be careful not to play like this too
> often, or for too long.

There is one high rolling craps player among us. He plays decent BJ, but is so enamored with what the "stars" have for him... when he "should" win at craps that he bets some fairly big money.

Consequently... he gets everything comped for us. Room, food, drinks, etc. Expenses are nil other than travel. I guess we're riding on his coat-tails so to speak,

[Norm Wattenberger]

Try the Blackjack Counting Results Calculator at the link below. You can fiddle with the spreads, penetration, rules, etc and see instant results.

Blackjack Counting Results Calculator

[Don Schlesinger]

> I'm very impressed with your answer. Either
> BJRM is awesome OR you spent a lot of time
> on this. Either way... I appreciate it!

BJRM IS awesome, and I bet Magician didn't have to spend too much time on it. Such is its power.

Don

[Parker]

> I'm very impressed with your answer. Either
> BJRM is awesome OR you spent a lot of time
> on this. Either way... I appreciate it!

Not to take anything away from Magician's excellent answer, but both BJRM and CVCX allow the user to quickly and easily generate this sort of data, as well as much more.

[John Auston]

> I'm very impressed with your answer. Either
> BJRM is awesome OR you spent a lot of time
> on this. Either way... I appreciate it!

This took me less than 5 minutes:

Here is how your betting would look, breaking even at a double deck game with a 1-2 spread. You would need a lifetime Bank of $10,000 to play $5 units with a fairly safe ROR of 6-7%.



A Trip where you play 8 hours of BJ, could be done with a trip Bank of only $350, if you can accept just over a 10% Trip ROR.



Finally, if you did just that, over and over, here is what you might experience over the course of 100 8-hour trips. A failry bumpy ride.



- John Auston

BJRM Web Site

[bigplayer]

for spreads with a slight positive expectation (break-even) the number of hands required to have a good chance of being close to breakeven is so large that for a part time player the concept of a break even spread is not practical.

[Magician]

> I'm very impressed with your answer. Either
> BJRM is awesome OR you spent a lot of time
> on this. Either way... I appreciate it!

Yep, all those sims were "pre-canned" and the whole exercise took only a few mouse-clicks. But I clicked that mouse, and I typed that whole post all by myself. :-)

[Magician]

...what's a counter to do when he's just out having fun with his friends? I find it difficult not to keep count. I think a break-even spread is a good idea for this particular scenario.

[ET Fan]

> to Snyder's "oppotition betting".
> Bet Big at high counts... bet LOW (or leave)
> at small counts... but in the intermediate
> range (say - 1 to +1 true count, Hi-Lo) bet
> "randomly". Great for cover... AND
> it costs nothing in the long run. Right?

??? Of course it costs something. In the range -1 to +1 you are playing at a disadvantage most of the time. If you have to pick one number, the optimal dollar value to bet is the minimum (zero, if you can get away with it.)

Cost can be computed as follows: -(# hands played in -1 to +1 range) X (average random bet - minimum bet) X (average expectation at TC=0).

As long as (av. exp. at TC=0) is negative, there's going to be a cost. Also, the larger bets are going to increase your variance, so "score" will plummet.

It's important to remember casinos mainly bar people for winning. I think opposition betting may be useful in some unusual circumstances, but in this case, less is definitely more. We get more than enough "opposition" from the other side of the table! ;-)

ETF