J Morgan: MIT Team book review

[Brick]

"Simple: Blackwood says the story is unbelievable, and cites several examples, but virtually all of his examples are in fact totally reasonable."

> "They go from top bets of 2K to three
> hands of 10K seemingly on a whim."

"Blackwood is the one saying "seemingly on a whim." He seems to find this bet jump unbelievable. It's not. Could they be overbetting Kelly? Maybe. Who cares? The point is that the bet levels and jumps are completely reasonable."

Believable perhaps...but "completely reasonable?"..no way. Going from a "top bet" of 2k, to a bet of 30k(3 hands)would be nothing but a hail mary. A more reasonable word for these kind of bets would be aggressive stupidity.

[Sun Runner]

> Believable perhaps...but "completely
> reasonable?"..no way. Going from a
> "top bet" of 2k, to a bet of 30k(3
> hands)would be nothing but a hail mary. A
> more reasonable word for these kind of bets
> would be aggressive stupidity.

Well, here I am defending Morgan, which he don't need; this is getting ridculous.

2K to 3X10K ain't no big deal. Never jump 1 to 15 before? I have. Felt like the whole world was watching, but I have.

Of course that was $5 to $75 but, hey, that's all I got.

[Brick]

> 2K to 3X10K ain't no big deal. Never jump 1
> to 15 before? I have. Felt like the whole
> world was watching, but I have.

> Of course that was $5 to $75 but, hey,
> that's all I got.

Aint no big deal,huh? It sure aint if your use to a top bet of only $75,but going to 30K at the drop of a hat is a big deal with a huge difference in meaning. Even a blind moron betting that kind of money will draw attention. Besides you are confused. These bets are going from "top bets" of 2K to 'top bets' of 30K.

[Norm Wattenberger]

A few points that you may see elsewhere in this thread:

1. These are teams. Large teams working with a large bankroll. With a very large bankroll, the variables become more complex and the immediate circumstances become a larger part of the 'formula.' For example you might think the 3x10K is a response to an unusual situation. But in fact, the 2K may be an artifice peculiar to a situation.

2. These players are expendable. They may not know it, but the team leaders may decide that an opportunity is well worth the immolation of a team member.

3. This may seem like 'a drop of the hat' to the critic. But the people holding that hat may also own some rabbits.

Serious Blackjack Software

[Brick]

Let's get back to the original format.

Sun Runner is trying to tell me 2k to 30k is no big deal.

1)It is a big deal.

2)It will draw attention.

3)Risk of ruin has just taken a huge increase.

ps.constantly disposing and replacing team members is risky. You get your rotten apples with good apples and things can get out of line.

[Norm Wattenberger]

> Sun Runner is trying to tell me 2k to 30k is
> no big deal.

> 1)It is a big deal.

To whom? You need to define the exact circumstances.

> 2)It will draw attention.

Well, there are two different scenarios. One is that the max bet changes in different settings at different times. This will not draw attention. Second is one person jumping his bet. I don't think that was the original gist. But even if it were, it still isn't out of the bounds of advantage play - particularly for teams. Obviously you can't sit at a table for an hour under normal circumstances jumping your bet dramatically. But, is this the scenario under discussion?

> 3)Risk of ruin has just taken a huge
> increase.

Why, because the spread is high? Wonging is infinite spread. You need more info to calculate effect on RoR. In particular, the relation between the max bet and the bankroll.

> ps.constantly disposing and replacing team
> members is risky. You get your rotten apples
> with good apples and things can get out of
> line.

But this is one style of team organization. There are some very large teams, some with high turnover. There exist advantages and disadvantages.

[Brick]

Sorry Norm,I'm not getting into another match trying to clearly explain what I'm talking about. The simulation saga was enough for me.

Bottom line is 30k bets is a big deal for anybody or any casino. If you dont believe me, try finding out the hardway and risk a few 30k bets and see how you're treated.

You will be loved or hated,pick your poison.

[Norm Wattenberger]

If you are, for example, Larry Flint - you can win $3,000,000 - leave - come back and be treated like a king. For obvious reasons, the books deal with normal stakes and play. Very high stake play - possible with large teams - ain't the same game. I'm not saying that this is useful information for a sole player. But, much of what has been said is not out of line in some circumstances.