Andrew: Whats the definition of going pro?

[DD']

I'll say this about luck and variance. You are going to have results that fall all over the normal distribution curve for various fragments of time. If you have the bank to withstand the swings in both directions then you just look at it as variance. But if your bank cannot withstand a sharp swing to the left & you only experience mild swings to the left until such time that your bank has grown & can withstand it, then I'd call it lucky.

In any business you are going to have some very bad years and seasons. When a start-up is hit with such catastrophe it is usually fatal. Unless you are very well capatilized you need some luck to get off the ground.

[Norm Wattenberger]

Hmm. That doesn't come across in print. (Unless you're Dan Quayle.) As Parker says, there is no double-standard. The terms have the same essence. Variance is a mathematic model of luck. You can have bad or good luck just as you can be on either side of the curve. The point is to work in an environment where an instance of bad luck or variance doesn?t nail you to the killing floor. And that?s what all the mathematics are for.

Serious Blackjack Softwae

[suicyco maniac]

[Parker]

English is not Andrew's native language.

What's your excuse?

:-)

[pat]

> Hmm. That doesn't come across in print.
> (Unless you're Dan Quayle.) As Parker says,
> there is no double-standard. The terms have
> the same essence. Variance is a mathematic
> model of luck. You can have bad or good luck
> just as you can be on either side of the
> curve. The point is to work in an
> environment where an instance of bad luck or
> variance doesn?t nail you to the killing
> floor. And that?s what all the mathematics
> are for.
with that theory.sure you can wait to get a bank that gives you no chance of tapping out,but if you cant wait and have to play with a bank with a 20% ror,you still have a 80% chance of winning money forever.i like those odds. eventually your bank will grow until the ror gets down to 1% or 0 as long as you arent in the 20% at the start.2 bullets in a gun with a chamber that holds 10 is still long odds.the good thing with bj is you dont die if you happen to be in the 20%-you just start over.

[Ron]

you're buying a house, DD'. I bet you have the creditors calling you all the time now....only to offer you big limit credit cards!!! Congrats, you have earned it.

[Mister M]

[Masquerace]

> If you have the bank to withstand the swings in both directions
> then you just look at it as variance.
> But if your bank cannot withstand a sharp swing to the left
> & you only experience mild swings to the left until such time
> that your bank has grown & can withstand it, then I'd call it lucky.

I hope not being blasphemous or a spammer if I add a slight off-topic comment to this so serious forum.
But having read the above lines, I now KNOW that while playing BJ I'll keep hearing this famous chorus in my mind:

It's just a jump to the left
and then a step to the right
put your hands on your hips
and bring your knees in tight
but it's the pelvic thrust
that really drives you insane....

:-D

[sam]

Some guys bend math because they don't fully understand it. I could easily be guilty of doing that. Others bend words because they don't fully understand them. "Luck" and "variance" have different connotations in the context of this discussion until Parker says they have the same meaning. Only when one says they are the same does the connotation, the suggestion, of each also agree. Responders used "luck" as a negative word to describe Pat's success. I don't believe the positive connotation of "variance" appears until DD used it to describe the swing in two years of his play. You guys make it clear to me each time I read the postings that the numbers matter. Playing games with the numbers won't work. Words are like that too. Calling something you don't agree with "luck" and something you do agree with "variance" is a game also if you think the words always have the same meanings. Use and process determine meaning. Politicians like Quayle use this technique regularly. This comes across in print to those who understand language the way you guys understand math.

Sam

> Hmm. That doesn't come across in print.
> (Unless you're Dan Quayle.) As Parker says,
> there is no double-standard. The terms have
> the same essence. Variance is a mathematic
> model of luck. You can have bad or good luck
> just as you can be on either side of the
> curve. The point is to work in an
> environment where an instance of bad luck or
> variance doesn?t nail you to the killing
> floor. And that?s what all the mathematics
> are for.

[Norm Wattenberger]

[Norm Wattenberger]

The word 'lucky' was used because there is no such word as 'variancy.' Also because a non-mathematician can understand the term. You are reading your own feelings into the motivations of others. Motivations that do not exist.

[Marc]

"Let's do the Time Warp again"

[DD']

> you're buying a house, DD'. I bet you have
> the creditors calling you all the time
> now....only to offer you big limit credit
> cards!!! Congrats, you have earned it.

Actually, it is Pat buying the house. Mine is about paid for. Yes, I do have offers for high limit credit cards coming all the time... usually in the names of aliases I've used in casinos. But I'd have great difficulty getting approved for home loans even submitting my tax returns. The loans for all of my rental properties are in the names of partners who have good credit and stable incomes. I found out when trying to purchase the first couple of properties that my credit information on the application only hurt the loan prospects and I was better off being the silent partner.