Buick Riviera: Internet Gambling Conviction Upheld (no BJ)

[Don Schlesinger]

Nice write-up, up to this point; then, you go somewhat offtrack.

> So, yes: Although the stock market (take the
> American one, fer instance) as a whole has
> been going UP (and why should it not,
> everything has gone up in value in the last
> hundr'd years), I'd wager that most small
> time investors (that's me an' you, ina
> figure of speech) have seen their fortunes
> go DOWN.

Nonsense! It's trivial to quote the past three years, when everyone -- and I mean virtually everyone -- has gotten hammered. But, you could have been blind, deaf, and a two-year old throwing darts at the page and made unspeakble money simply in the decade of the '90s by being in the stock market. Any idiot -- knowing nothing whatsoever -- is capable of uttering "mutual fund," and that's all that was necessary to grow your money for the last 20 years, with the one serious "interruption" of the 1987 crash, more than in any other investment vehicle imaginable.

It's so easy to dump on something according to the "what have you done for me lately" principle.

> Trivia : Did you know that an excellent
> time to get OUT of the market is when small
> timers have peaked coming IN ? Always
> monitor the Odd-trades indicators...

And, an infinitely better time to get INTO the market is when every Tom, Dick, and Harry has given up, bails out of the market, and calls it quits. So, what's the point, other than "the masses are asses," which will be eternally so?

Don

[Sun Runner]

> I am due to give a
> presentation on the likely economic and
> financial consequences of waging war on
> Iraq.

> Unfortunately, I have a degree in neither economics nor finance.

Well, having any real knowledge about what you are speaking about is largely over blown.

> I am good at mental arithmetic.

Bravo. That's a plus.

> I have some research reports from Morgan Stanley

So do I.

> I once recall from a book called 'Liar's Poker' ...

I once read Jerry Patterson's book.

> Due to time constraints (I am being flown to
> Rome to work with others)

You have just re-affirmed my belief about consultants.

Sadly, many of the people you speak to will rely on what you tell them.

After you bust out your Morgan Stanley briefs, are you then going to pony up your "advantageplayer.com" advice? Be sure not to leave out the part about when to stand on 16 v. 10.

Please tell me you have some real world experience to offer?

Unbelievable.

SR

[Moose]

> But, you could have been blind, deaf, and a two-year old throwing darts at the page ...

I don't know many parents that let their blind and deaf two-year-olds throw darts at anything, but oh, how much fun it must have been growing up in the Schlesinger household

M.

[SOTSOG]

[gpap]

Sorry Sun Runner; I am not familiar with contemporary US work. Who is Jerry Patterson? Did he write anything related to finance?

If you would like me to inform the guests that one should stand on 16 v 10 when the count is positive unless surrender is an option then I might just do that.

As for rge21.com: given many of the posters are knowledgable with regard to finance I thought it would be advantageous to get their views on the matter. It also occurred to me that one of the masters of Blackjack (Don Schlesinger) had previously worked (and may still do) for Morgan Stanley for many years and also spent time in academia prior to this. Therefore it dawned on me that his knowledge on the subject would be invaluable. Afterall, given BJA2 was so thouroughly and succintly written, it made me believe that his expertise in finance would be insurpassable.

I agree that it is sad that many individuals will use poor advice to try and make their quick million. However, it is up to the individual to sift through the information and determine what is useful material. Afterall, how many poor quality books have been written on BJ, roulette etc.? I have never invested on the stock market for this reason and I have no intention of ever doing so.

As for my real world experience? I am convinced I have none. My degrees were in aeronautics and astronautics and I specialised in chaos theory. These are not related in any way to the subject of my presntation.

To appease 'C'; I think you are glorifying my task. I am being sent to Rome to write a publication on turbulent flows over rough walls (not very interesting) where I will spend most of my time wanting to throw the computer out of the window when the program crashes. While I am there I am being flown to London to give this challenging presentation. Hopefully they might cancel it.

[C]

I wrote, and still fully believe that, "most small time investors (that's me an' you, ina figure of speech) have seen their fortunes go DOWN." This does not include someone who entrusts his money to a mutual fund or someone who, in any capacity, multiplies his petty capital's power by having it join any kind of war chest. I literally mean small-time investor and that means going it alone! It means trying to outwit the big boys and the big money.

DS > "And, an infinitely better time to get INTO the market is when every Tom, Dick, and Harry has given up, bails out of the market, and calls it quits. So, what's the point, other than "the masses are asses," which will be eternally so?"

That's precisely the point.

Now, to the tough part : are we (am I), part of the elite -- or part of the masses? Sometimes? Always?
Hmmm. "I'll have to think about that".

[Sun Runner]

> As for my real world experience? I am
> convinced I have none. My degrees were in
> aeronautics and astronautics and I
> specialised in chaos theory. These are not
> related in any way to the subject of my
> presntation.

Ever consider simply declining the invitation to speak on something you seem to admit knowing nothing about?

SR

[Don Schlesinger]

"I literally mean small-time investor and that means going it alone! It means trying to outwit the big boys and the big money."

There is literally no such thing anymore. You don't know any less than the "big boys" and the "big money."

You have every piece of information available to you -- AT THE SAME TIME that the "big boys" have it -- on the Internet.

What's more, it is estimated that 50% of Americans own some shares of stock in one form or another. And, it is further estimated that they do so through mutual funds, company 401(k) retirement plans, managed pension funds, etc.

It is simply absurd to think that the majority of people who own equity are lifetime losers for the experience. It flies in the face of all common sense and reason.

Don

[PunkEye]

> You have to have a zero or plus tick to sell
> short; shorting on a down tick is
> "barred"! :-)

That's not an accurate comparison. The reason the double six or double ace is barred is because without it, the don't player would have a 1.52% advantage against the House. So what's the reasoning behind the downtick rule?

[Sun Runner]

> There is literally no such thing anymore.
> You don't know any less than the "big
> boys" and the "big money."

> You have every piece of information
> available to you -- AT THE SAME TIME that
> the "big boys" have it -- on the
> Internet.

On things financial I agree with most all you say except here.

When (if) another IPO ever gets funded, do you think I have a chance at being there pre-IPO? No, I don't. The big boys and their big clients get all the goodies first.

Do you really believe that even now in a time when CFOs are being required to sign off on the financials, that insider information isn't still being bantered around? It is.

Do you not think that at the good old boys clubs from Greenwich to LA the real information is disseminated first?

And even if it was all even/steven, the big boys have all day to watch the market. I (mostly) have to wait till I get home at night.

My decision, and most of the little people's decisions, are not based in real time.

We do know less than the big boys and while it may be available simultaneously, we generally know it last.

I still think a little guy can compete and make $$$; but we are playing with a disadvantage.

SR

[Oldster]

I have agreed with The Don on virtually everything BJ, but I do think the proposition that "small" investors have identical info to "big" investors is colored by his job in the securities industry, just as my tendency is to think all doctors are wonderful.

We, the small, only recently learned of the efforts at Merrill Lynch to "put lipstick on the pig" and an analyst touting a stock to enhance his kid's shot at a fancy nursery school. Maybe these are the only 2 sins in a otherwise perfect system, but I doubt it.

> "I literally mean small-time investor
> and that means going it alone! It means
> trying to outwit the big boys and the big
> money."

> There is literally no such thing anymore.
> You don't know any less than the "big
> boys" and the "big money."

> You have every piece of information
> available to you -- AT THE SAME TIME that
> the "big boys" have it -- on the
> Internet.

> What's more, it is estimated that 50% of
> Americans own some shares of stock in one
> form or another. And, it is further
> estimated that they do so through mutual
> funds, company 401(k) retirement plans,
> managed pension funds, etc.

> It is simply absurd to think that the
> majority of people who own equity are
> lifetime losers for the experience. It flies
> in the face of all common sense and reason.

> Don

[Don Schlesinger]

Out of fairness to the page, which isn't about Wall Street, I'm going to end my participation here.

My disagreeing again isn't going to accomplish anything -- we're not speaking on the same level of knowledge of the industry, and I have no incentive to imnpose my ideas on you.

But, for the record, it is a cinch for the smallest investor conceivable to receive identical returns as institutional investors, through the use of a myriad of products that have completely leveled the playing field. It simply isn't my fault if you are unaware of these vehicles and/or real-time news sources.

Trading with inside information is against the law, and people go to jail for it. It's pointless to hold that up as the crierion for "us against them" comparisons. I'm talking about trading and investing legally, which is something that most people do.

Don

[C]

You are right -- about the need to terminate the discussion somewhere about here. One more post and I'm done:

You bring into the criteria I used (remember? "Belgian dentist"?) elements which have nothing to do with the lone, individual investor.

You are correct that if such an investor would park his money to a mutual fund, he'd stand a far better chance of outperforming the market, if not making any profit at all, than if he'd go it alone. However, I was talking about going it alone.

You are also correct that a lone, individual investor who'd park his savings on an indexed basket of stocks in the 50s, he'd be rich today. However, I know of no such animals, given the odd exception or two.

There are individuals who play it conservatively, e.g. oldsters wo want to bequeath something for the grandchildren, and do indeed park the money. These folks, far and few in between the masses, actually have better chances of making a buck. The majority of people out there, however, are not really investors, they are gamblers, in the truest and most literal sense of the word. They go up against the house, which is the collective wisdom of the big boys and the market, which, in turn, carries not an insignificant taint of the herd mentality with it (pace bibliography). The lone, individual investor, e.g. the day traders, despite all the "products" and "real-time information" and the "services" they can use, simply do not have the whole armoury to make educated choices. It would be absurd to think you are a surgeon just because all the information about surgery is "out there" and surgical tools are freely available. The day trader scrutinizes the financial data of a company and thinks he knows the value of the company -- and that's what the best day traders do. Most act as race track bettors do.

...Investing & gambling -- this is how the whole discussion began, so best take my bow right about now, as well.