In threads below, we have been discussing stop wins/losses, and the semi-mythical "long run." Rather than respond to a specific post, I will discuss the topic in general.

The beautiful thing about blackjack is that it can be reduced to pure mathematics. It is a finite universe - there are only 52 cards in each deck, and there are only so many plays that can happen. With the advent of powerful, inexpensive personal computers, it is possible to precisely determine the benefit or cost of just about anything associated with the game. For any given situation, there is one, and only one mathematically correct answer.

However, just because a course of action is mathematically correct does not mean it is necessarily the right course of action. The game can be reduced to pure mathematics, but the people playing it cannot.

Why do we count cards and play this game? The obvious answer is to make money! Of course! But there is more to it than that. As I have often pointed out, anyone who has put together the bankroll required for serious advantage play has almost certainly already found an easier way to make money. So, there must be a reason other than pure profit, and of course there is. We do this because it is fun! We may like the comps, or we may consider it a challenge, but we do it to some degree because it brings us pleasure of some sort.

So, we play blackjack for fun and profit. However, the proportions will vary widely from one individual to another. For the jaded full time pro, survivor of hundreds of back-offs and maybe a hostile back-rooming or two, the fun moments have become few and far between. The low red chip player, on the other hand, does not expect to make any real money at the game, and plays mostly for the sheer pleasure of beating the casino at their own game, and maybe a free buffet or two.

Most of us probably fall somewhere between these two extremes. We bet significant money, and blackjack may be a substantial second income. We have put many hours into studying and practicing the game. Still, we get a certain thrill when we cash in a nice win.

I have yet to meet a single, solitary person who enjoys losing.

Is there a point here? But of course. As I mentioned in a post below, there are only three reasons to leave a game: Conditions have deteriorated, you are experiencing heat, or you are fatigued or otherwise physically/mentally unable to continue playing to the best of your ability.

In the long run, it is easy to calculate your winnings: Total amount bet x EV, minus any losses due to errors, cover play etc. Session results are meaningless. We may have big wins and big losses, in the long run it will all balance out - you will earn your EV.

So, there is no mathematically correct reason to leave a good game simply because you have won or lost X amount. In fact, you are wasting valuable EV by doing so. Will the next game you sit down at be as good? All you are accomplishing is making it so that it will take you even longer to get to the long run.

However, the mathematically correct answer may not necessarily be the right answer for everyone. As mentioned above, nobody enjoys losing. In fact, as the losses mount, many of us may get downright depressed or angry. Eventually, you may reach a point where this is affecting your judgement and hence, your play. Guess what? It is time to leave the game.

Not everyone is suited to high high stakes play. Stanford Wong is one of the top experts on the game alive today, for whom I have a great deal of respect. In his book, Blackjack Secrets he writes about what it takes to be a pro player:

"The most important requirement is that you must be very stable emotionally to be able to handle the monetary swings and the inevitable barrings. Do you ever feel any emotions? That is, do you ever feel anger or fear or love? My encyclopedia says, "A normal healthy individual shows reasonable emotional responses to the situations of everyday life." If you are this sort of normal, healthy individual, you will never make it as a professional blackjack player. If you feel emotional responses to the situations of everyday life, you are too emotional to be a professional blackjack player. If it takes an extreme situation to provoke an emotional response in you, then you might be stable enough emotionally to survive as a professional blackjack player.

"A professional blackjack player experiences big wins and big losses. Though you have an edge, your bankroll seems to go down fast and build up only slowly. Some losing streaks last for months. You must be able to cope with the losses that invevitably will occur. If you get upset when you lose, if losing makes you suspect that you were cheated, or if losing leads you to suspect that authors of blackjack books have explained playing strategy backwards, then you had better find another way to keep rice on your dining table."

Of course, most of us do not aspire to be full time pros. Still, the point remains that while leaving a losing game may not be the mathematically correct thing to do, it may be the correct thing for preserving your sanity.

Okay, but what about a stop-win? This is actually a carry-over from the negative expectation player. Who among us has never heard, "Quit while you're ahead." It is pounded into our heads, often from an early age.

However, it all changes when we are playing with an advantage. Have you ever been inside a casino and heard them announce, "We've just counted all the chip trays and we are ahead now, so we are closing the casino. Everyone please cash in their remaining chips and leave." You've never heard that? Neither have I.

The casino has no interest in "quitting while ahead," because they know that they have the edge: In the long ruin, it is inevitable that they will be ahead. As advantage players, we have effectively swapped places with the casinos. The more we play, the more we stand to win. It is just that simple. "Quitting while you're ahead" just to enjoy the feeling of a win is short term physical gratification at the expense of valuable EV.

I personally use a stop-win, but for an entirely different reason. Large piles of chips in front of a player tend to attract unwanted attention, so I may cut a session short if I jump way out ahead early. Exactly at what point depends on the casino, the game, my cumulative win there, and how soon I plan on coming back.

Okay, so much for stop-wins and stop-losses. What is this "long run" thing, and when do we get there.

We never get there, because it is not a destination. It is something we move toward. Think about your worst loss. Think about how you felt at the time. Now think about how you would feel if your bankroll was ten times larger. Probably not as bad, right?

It is not necessary to play millions or billions of hands to reach the long run. We do that in simulations because we want extreme precision. We want to know that our results are meaningful, and not the result of variance.

In the real world, there is no need to be so precise. In the ballpark is good enough.

So, when is the long run? I've personally been keeping good records for about 5 years, playing anywhere from 200-500 hours per year. My earnings in that period are pretty much in line with my expectation. I'm not saying that I've reached the long run, but I don't sweat session wins and losses nearly as much as I used to.