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Bert Nommel: Simulations: The Ace Neutral Level Two Counts
Here are some interesting sims. Rules were 2D, DOA, DAS, S17, noLS, Catch 22 indices, 78% penetration. 5 billion hands. True Count estimated to nearest 1/2 deck and floored. Each system side counted aces for betting.
AO II: Flat Bet SCORE = $0.0333
1-2 SCORE = $22.94
1-4 SCORE = $71.06
1-8 SCORE = $117.29
Ace Neutral RPC: Flat Bet SCORE = $0.0365
1-2 SCORE = $23.91
1-4 SCORE = $74.48
1-8 SCORE = $123.43
Hi-OPT II: Flat Bet SCORE = $0.0442
1-2 SCORE = $24.11
1-4 SCORE = $73.43
1-8 SCORE = $120.56
I think the AO II did not do better becasue the other two counts have better insurance correlations. The IC's are AO II = 0.85, Ace Neutral RPC = 0.892, and HO II = 0.909. The Ace Neutral RPC had a bit better BE than the HO II, 0.984 vs 0.982. The AO II had the best BC of 0.989. PE's were: AO II = 0.671, Ace Neutral RPC = 0.657 and HOII = 0.668.
With more indices or changes in penetration or if single deck, things could shake out differently.
Bert
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