marcus: +ev with splits??

[marcus]

Hi everyone,
Lets say my girlfriend plays basic strategy, $10 per hand. In the casino I play, you can also bet on the same hand, its called back betting, but you cant make any decisions, the person playing the hand makes all decisions. But, if they split, you dont have to, and can just play one of the hands, eg 88 , split , you can just have your money on one eight. Now, if i was to play $500 per hand, and she played a split strategy to take advantage of this, could we win without counting?? Its a 6 deck shoe, about 80 percent pen. , double down on any 9,10,11 , can double after split, dealer hits on all 16, stands on all 17. THankyou.

[humble]

No +ev of the top of the pack: defensive or "bad" splits are way too rare.

[phantom007]

> Hi everyone,

Hello to you!

> Lets say my girlfriend plays basic strategy,
> $10 per hand. In the casino I play, you can
> also bet on the same hand, its called back
> betting, but you cant make any decisions,
> the person playing the hand makes all
> decisions. But, if they split, you dont have
> to, and can just play one of the hands, eg
> 88 , split , you can just have your money on
> one eight. Now, if i was to play $500 per
> hand, and she played a split strategy to
> take advantage of this, could we win without
> counting?? Its a 6 deck shoe, about 80
> percent pen. , double down on any 9,10,11 ,
> can double after split, dealer hits on all
> 16, stands on all 17. THankyou.

I would say "NO" as to long term. Certainly most of us have been through a Basic Strategy Stage where we won without counting. Long term the casino advantage will grind you out...or gouge you out at this 10:500 "BackBet Spread".

I suspect that you may be increasing the house advantage by to taking ALL available splits.

Another potential risk is that if your girlfriend makes a mistake, your comments and/or actions could induce "Revenge Play"...DD on a hard 14 for example. I am not saying that your girlfriend would do this (but my wife would).

I hope this has been helpful.

phantom007

[Zenfighter]

> Hi everyone,
> Lets say my girlfriend plays basic strategy,
> $10 per hand. In the casino I play, you can
> also bet on the same hand, its called back
> betting, but you cant make any decisions,
> the person playing the hand makes all
> decisions. But, if they split, you dont have
> to, and can just play one of the hands, eg
> 88 , split , you can just have your money on
> one eight. Now, if i was to play $500 per
> hand, and she played a split strategy to
> take advantage of this, could we win without
> counting?? Its a 6 deck shoe, about 80
> percent pen. , double down on any 9,10,11 ,
> can double after split, dealer hits on all
> 16, stands on all 17. THankyou.

You can't win without counting cards by using
this technique.
For your presents rules expect BSE = -0.57%
Then, if you use a perfect basic strategy by
taking advantage of the sacrifice splits of your
partner you will gain only 0.2%, that's mean you
will play at a rate of:

-0.57% + 0.2% = -0.37%
Your girlfriend will lose btw at a rate of:

-0.57% - 0.2% = -0.77%

Moral, learn to count the cards and try afterwards.

Hope this helps

Z