Type "blackjack progression tester" into Google and select the first entry. This progression tester is 100% reliable.Originally Posted by falling star
In the long run you will be behind the house edge for the game times your average bet times the number of bets you make. Increasing your bet to "overcome" the house edge only increases your average bet which increases your lose rate. The rest is just variance which smoothes out in the long run to this statement.
You've demonstrated a healthy sense of humor. Even I had to smile. I understand your rigid biased belief about system players and accept that you'll probably not change your mind, but you should keep in mind that even STEEL has some wiggle room.Truth delayed will still be conveyed. I'll search somewhere else for my elusive simulator.
I also believe that if I jump out of my window, I will probably die. 1+1=2. Call that statement biased if you wish. But, failure to understand it will create difficulties.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
I reject that notion! Maybe, I have more faith than you, or maybe it's because I am on the first floor.
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
A husband suspecting his wife was having an affair, purposely came home early one day, but was noticed the wife's lover in time to jump out the window and hold onto the ledge. The husband suspecting someone else was there, began inspecting the house. He noticed the fingers holding onto the ledge and went to get a baseball bat and game the fingers a few good wackes but the fingers wouldn't let go so he went and got a golf club and proceeded to give the fingers a few more wackes.
The culprit, while relating the incident to his friend, was asked what hurt the most, the baseball bat or the golf club?
He answered "Neither, what really hurt was when I looked down and realized I was on the first floor".
The short term is more important to the players than the long term. The long term is only the sum of its parts. If you don't win most of your short sessions, you can't win long term. Most counters and non-counters don't have unlimited bankrolls and must win most of their short sessions. Unless you can play through to the end of the deck, the cut card plays havoc with a counters supposed advantage.
It all depends on the size of the wins and losses. If your wins are small and losses big you must win the vast majority of your sessions to have any hope of being ahead and looking at the short run is your only hope of deluding yourself you are ahead in the long run. If the size of wins and losses are more equal with the large wins more frequent than the large losses you can be ahead in the long run easier. Personally I win about 70% of my sessions. My biggest swings are rare large losses but I have far more large wins of close to that size. It puts me ahead in the long run. I don't need to worry about the short run to think I have an advantage. The long run tells me so.
The worst deluders of themselves are the martingale system players. They pile lots of small wins on top of one another that may be enough to keep up with the occasional large loss but then three huge losses come in rapid succession and they find themselves so far behind that they know they can never dig out. Two large losses in short period of time is not uncommon and three will happen if they play long enough. Then they cry the blues and say I should have listened. The cycle will repeat again if they are too stubborn to get it at that point. Then they are far further behind than they were the last time several losses came in short order.
I have an even higher session win rate, however my losses are far larger and far more infrequent than my wins. This I think is because I hate to leave a session on the losing side, so I tend to play too long when I am losing stringing together what would ordinarily be a series of small losses into one large super-sized loss. OTOH, when I have won a nice amount, I am happy to call it quits in a short time. This behavior perpetuates the many-small-wins and a few-large-losses phenomenon that I experience. The many wins can lull you into a sense of confidence whereby you might "spend" a large portion of your bankroll feeling that prosperity is here to stay. Don't worry, it isn't; the losses are as sure to come as night is to fall at the end of the day. My advice-- don't spend your bankroll while you are experiencing a long winning streak, because you will need it later on when the losses come. The only thing you can depend on, if you're play is according to Hoyle (in the counting sense), is your calculated win rate, which we all know is not all that stupendous considering all the hours we put in and the various pinnacles we sometimes reach. I think it's a good rule to ignore the portion of your wins due to variance (i.e., that exceeds your expected win rate), and only assume that which is within your expected win rate as here to stay.
Last edited by Aslan; 10-07-2012 at 08:51 AM.
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
I agree with most of what you state. Martingale players are usually beginners and soon realize it's a loser. Many players win their first time in a casino and conclude they'll win even more after they learn something about the game.
It takes awhile to realize how difficult the games really are.
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