PaddyBoy: variance

[PaddyBoy]

Which casino game has the lowest variance.
I would like to know for playing bonuses on the net.
Wouldnt playing a game with a high house edge and low variance be better than a game with low house edge and high variance.If you are just intent on holding onto the bonus money.
Eg cryptologics double bonus has a HE of .06%,but double bonus is volatile,wouldnt playing BJ be a lot better even though HE is around .5%.
So is there a game with a lower variance than BJ.

[MathProf]

I presume you mean variance measured in terms of the "units", i.e. initial bets and not dollars. You can always your lower variance by reducing your bet size, if the table minimum permits.

I am not sure what the lowest variance game is, as I haven't thought about he question much. But the Bank Bet in Bacarat is pretty low.

> Which casino game has the lowest variance.
> I would like to know for playing bonuses on
> the net.
> Wouldnt playing a game with a high house
> edge and low variance be better than a game
> with low house edge and high variance.If you
> are just intent on holding onto the bonus
> money.
> Eg cryptologics double bonus has a HE of
> .06%,but double bonus is volatile,wouldnt
> playing BJ be a lot better even though HE is
> around .5%.
> So is there a game with a lower variance
> than BJ.

[Rambler]

When going after bonuses on the net you want to play the game with the highest variance, not the lowest.

[Don Schlesinger]

Seems to me that red or black at roulette ought to be pretty low variance, no??

Don

[Norm Wattenberger]

Baccarat and Roulette are not allowed for I?Net casino bonus use since you can bet both ways (Player/Bank & Red/Black.) Craps same reason. I would guess Pai Gow Poker is the lowest variance since half the hands are pushes and no hand wins or loses more than 1:1. But the EV is no good without banking and not all casinos offer it. BJ really seems to be the right game; although I also play VP.

[PaddyBoy]

> Baccarat and Roulette are not allowed for
> I?Net casino bonus use since you can bet
> both ways (Player/Bank & Red/Black.)
> Craps same reason. I would guess Pai Gow
> Poker is the lowest variance since half the
> hands are pushes and no hand wins or loses
> more than 1:1. But the EV is no good without
> banking and not all casinos offer it. BJ
> really seems to be the right game; although
> I also play VP.

There are a few casinos that dont prohibit baccarat or roulette in the Tncs such as littlewoods and club fiore but i suppose if you tried hedging they would deny the bonus anyway.
do you play VP at the ones that prohibit BJ,casino grand bay,sun vegas?

[Parker]

> When going after bonuses on the net you want
> to play the game with the highest variance,
> not the lowest.

Online gambling/bonus hustling is outside my area of expertise, but it would seem to me that variance is our enemy, not our friend. This is the whole reason we play a bunch of hands of blackjack (or whatever) at low stakes, rather then a few hands with big bets, even though the latter would be much less time-consuming.

[Norm Wattenberger]

> There are a few casinos that dont prohibit
> baccarat or roulette in the Tncs such as
> littlewoods and club fiore but i suppose if
> you tried hedging they would deny the bonus
> anyway.

I would assume so as the rules always give them that right.

> do you play VP at the ones that prohibit
> BJ,casino grand bay,sun vegas?

Yes. Did well at Grand Bay. However, I always play some VP if it?s full pay. Generally I start with a few hands of VP, switch to BJ and then play some VP again before signing off. I?ve always thought it makes me look more like a gambler - although I really don?t know. I?ve never had any trouble collecting a bonus.

[Sonny]

I've tried the old "High vs. Low" hedge playing Sic Bo and had great success. I don't know the actual mathematical variance, but it seems pretty stable in practice.

[Jon Osterman]

it depends on your intent.

it is true that you can get a higher ev on your bonus money by seeking out high variance games, but PaddyBoy specified a different goal: hanging on to the bonus money.

throwing a bonus dollar on a number straight up on the wheel has a higher ev than playing blackjack with that bonus dollar, but the blackjack bonus dollar is more likely to show a profit after a single play.

[humble]

> throwing a bonus dollar on a number straight
> up on the wheel has a higher ev than playing
> blackjack with that bonus dollar,

What wheel would that be? A wheel with N numbers paying (at least) N to 1? Where can I find such a wheel in which commercial casino?

[Jon Osterman]

but your sarcasm is noted.

bonus dollars usually can be played one time only, win or lose. they do not represent real money. the following discussion assumes this type of bonus dollar... NOT to be confused with a non-negotiable chip that stays in play until lost.

playing a bonus dollar straight up on the wheel, you have 37 ways to lose NOTHING and one way to win thirty five REAL dollars. thirty five dollars divided by 38 spins comes to an ev of 92 cents per spin.

assume a game of blackjack such that the rules are so good as to provide a game with no house edge (makes for easier demonstration). playing blackjack for two hands (one bonus dollar each) you expect to lose NOTHING once and win one REAL dollar once. one dollar divided by two hands played comes to an ev of 50 cents per hand.

even this perfect game of blackjack doesn't compare to the wheel when it comes to bonus dollars (92 cents vs. 50 cents).

however (as noted previously) you are much more likely to walk away from the blackjack game with real money after one hand than from the roulette wheel after one spin.

hope this is helpful (and clear).

[humble]

Thanks for the explanation, I appreciate the effort.
But - alas - I must be missing something here.
You: "playing a bonus dollar straight up on the wheel, you have 37 ways to lose NOTHING and one way to win thirty five REAL dollars. thirty five dollars divided by 38 spins comes to an ev of 92 cents per spin"
Are you telling me that after 38 spins you are guaranteed a 35 REAL dollars win?