JoeBlack: Don and Parker Respond

[JoeBlack]

So how does someone that is proficient at counting cards (Hi Lo and 22 indices) and say a $10,000 bankroll end up with a greater than $50,000 bankroll and an income of $75,000 or more.

I'm not asking for theory here, but real world answers. An outline will do.

In case you hadn't noticed I'm trying to move the discussion to real world information as opposed to classroom theory or computer simulations that don't mimic the real world.

> I'd say none. It is impossible to work up a
> bankroll from that level with pure counting.
> The reason is that unlike higher levels of
> play, your expenses will seriously eat into
> your profits. The mathematics are similar to
> playing with a flat commission charged. Many
> new counters who ask me for help would not
> touch a game with a 10% commission charge
> but that is effectively what they are doing
> by playing on a small bankroll with no
> separate funds for expenses.

> You might be able to do it if you can work
> the comp game-but to me that is the same as
> saying you track of steer cards or whatever,
> it is another skill that must be learned and
> employed.

> I'd like to see more books aimed at small
> stakes players rather than the

[Parker]

> Any idea how many of the 1/10th of 1% used
> playing on a team to get in the long run
> faster and build up a bankroll?

Of the dozen or so players I mentioned before, I am only aware of one that is a full time high stakes pro, does no advantage play other than card counting, and is completely solo.

> Is team play an exponential multiplier of
> bankroll growth?

Very much so. If, for example, four players with $10K each team up, then each one can bet to a $40K bankroll.

Of course, there are many pitfalls to team play. For starters, all the players must have complete confidence in each other's playing ability, as well as total faith in their integrity.

[shark]

The counters I know, that started with 10K bankroll and make as much as you mentioned, started by finding very lucrative games. With time their bankroll grew and they added more weapons to their arsenal.Shark

> So how does someone that is proficient at
> counting cards (Hi Lo and 22 indices) and
> say a $10,000 bankroll end up with a greater
> than $50,000 bankroll and an income of
> $75,000 or more.

> I'm not asking for theory here, but real
> world answers. An outline will do.

> In case you hadn't noticed I'm trying to
> move the discussion to real world
> information as opposed to classroom theory
> or computer simulations that don't mimic the
> real world.

[Don Schlesinger]

> So how does someone that is proficient at
> counting cards (Hi Lo and 22 indices) and
> say a $10,000 bankroll end up with a greater
> than $50,000 bankroll and an income of
> $75,000 or more.

In time! Say you earn two units per hour. Say your bank is 500 units. In 250 hours (one year??), you double your bank, if all goes well.

Now, you double your stakes. In another year, you double the doubled bank. So, in two years' time (or less, if you're lucky), your $10,000 has become $40,000, and you're on your way.

Or, did you plan on doing this more quickly?

> I'm not asking for theory here, but real
> world answers. An outline will do.

See above.

> In case you hadn't noticed I'm trying to
> move the discussion to real world
> information as opposed to classroom theory
> or computer simulations that don't mimic the
> real world.

You write as if none of us has ever played in the real world and that we just like to write about blackjack. That's a rather naive and erroneous assumption on your part.

Do be a little less patronizing.

Don

[Norm Wattenberger]

> In case you hadn't noticed I'm trying to
> move the discussion to real world
> information as opposed to classroom theory
> or computer simulations that don't mimic the
> real world.

You can build a computer simulation to exactly mimic any real world situation.

[Parker]

> So how does someone that is proficient at
> counting cards (Hi Lo and 22 indices) and
> say a $10,000 bankroll end up with a greater
> than $50,000 bankroll and an income of
> $75,000 or more.

It is do-able. Three important tips:

1. You must have another income source of some sort to cover your day-to-day living expenses, so that all of your winnings can go into building the bankroll. In addition, it is vital to know how to work the comp system to reduce or eliminate travel expenses.

2. Only play good games. It can be frustrating, especially if you have traveled a long distance to get there, to find a casino with a game that is mediocre or worse. "As long as I'm here I might as well play a little. Maybe I'll get lucky." This temptation must be resisted.

3. Stick to the game plan. When things are going poorly, you may be tempted to increase your bets in order to quickly recoup a big loss. Conversely, depending on your personality, you may become "gunshy," reluctant to put the big bets on the table when the count calls for it after a series of losses. Again, both must be avoided.

It occurs to me that failure to adhere to these principles are yet more reasons why most counters fail.

> I'm not asking for theory here, but real
> world answers. An outline will do.

> In case you hadn't noticed I'm trying to
> move the discussion to real world
> information as opposed to classroom theory
> or computer simulations that don't mimic the
> real world.

Getting a little demanding here, aren't we? This is, after all, an open, free forum. The people responding, including published authors, have all put in considerable time at the tables at one point or another in their respective careers. And the beauty of modern computer simulations is that they can mimic "real world" conditions.

[humble]

> You can build a computer simulation to
> exactly mimic any real world situation.

You may find it difficult to build a computer that mimics a human being and passes the so-called Turing Test.

[Cellinin, D .V.]

[JoeBlack]

I'm not trying to be patronizing. It is this Robin Hoodish club that seems to attract so many people who apparently aren't really capable of beating the casinos.

Not sure how any simulators can mimic occasional mistakes, backoffs, barrings, expenses, etc.

So based on your answer, if everything "goes right", with a 10,000 bankroll you could double it in one year and make 10,000 for the year. With an average bet of say $30 and 100 hands per hour, that would be risking $3,000 per hour to make $10,000 at the end of 250 hours (gross minus expenses).

> In time! Say you earn two units per hour.
> Say your bank is 500 units. In 250 hours
> (one year??), you double your bank, if all
> goes well.

> Now, you double your stakes. In another
> year, you double the doubled bank. So, in
> two years' time (or less, if you're lucky),
> your $10,000 has become $40,000, and you're
> on your way.

> Or, did you plan on doing this more quickly?

> See above.

> You write as if none of us has ever played
> in the real world and that we just like to
> write about blackjack. That's a rather naive
> and erroneous assumption on your part.

> Do be a little less patronizing.

> Don

[Igor]

[Steephen]

Humble computers (programmers)do very well on the Turing test with sufficiently narrow constraints.
You could be having a discussion with a computer about blackjack and have no idea whether it was a computer or not. (beep..end of response)

[Norm Wattenberger]

> You may find it difficult to build a
> computer that mimics a human being and
> passes the so-called Turing Test.

If you are asking me to prove that a computer can think; first you will have to prove to me that humans thinkJ

But it is not relevant. You are not supposed to innovate while in a casino. You are supposed to do your thinking before you walk into the casino. All of your thinking should be done. (And sims are an aid.) Once there, you should only react according to what you know. Yes, there are actually people sitting at a table with 16vT going through the various possibilities in their head trying to 'think' of what to do. These are not advantage players.

Creating a sim that can react to a BJ situation as player or dealer in any manner as a human would (including shooting the dealer) is not that difficult.

BTW, a Turing machine is not a computer - it is a programmable calculator.

[humble]

> If you are asking me to prove that a
> computer can think; first you will have to
> prove to me that humans think.

What you call the activity that both are busy with is irrelevant. The point is whether or not you can distinguish one from the other (not knowing which is which) via a remote conversation telling them stuff and asking them questions.

> Yes, there are actually people sitting
> at a table with 16vT going through the
> various possibilities in their head trying
> to 'think' of what to do. These are not
> advantage players.

My guess is they certainly qualify for the title if they are taking into account every exact card dealt so far (card counting is just too simple for these Einstonians :-); and I bet that will most definitely take "thinking at the table (processing the last card just dealt)".

> Creating a sim that can react to a BJ
> situation as player or dealer in any manner
> as a human would (including shooting the
> dealer) is not that difficult.

How about this: given some BJ situation for no obvious reason player and dealer engage in a brief foreign language conversation on philosophy (and I can assure you it happens, happened, and will happen).

> BTW, a Turing machine is not a computer - it
> is a programmable calculator.

Programmable calculator sounds to me like a fine definition of a computer.
And, by the way, no computer in this or any other universe can compute things that the little Turing Machine cannot (it may take the TM longer).