Good Gamer: What is Win rate for DD D10?

[Good Gamer]

In my world of 2.0 6D games, D10 DD is an option that I've avoided since I could only spread them 8x1 with a quarter minimum.

Recently, the opportunity to spread them 20x1 has turned up so I took some advice and purchased BJA to check Don's sims on this. Alas, Don only provides D10 for single deck and it's pretty hard to extrapolate those tables out to 20x1 DD.

Can anyone (Don, I'd be honored if it were you) tell me the unit-win/100 for D10 Double-deck using Don's BJA assumptions as a benchmark? I'm most interested in it for 20x1 and 8x1 spreads with 52 cards of pen but I'll happily add this crucial column to page 214 of my copy of BJ Attack with any additional pen/spread assumptions that anyone can provide me.

Thanks much!

GG

[Norm Wattenberger]

Below are optimal bets, Risk assuming $800 bankroll, Win Rate in units, and DI for DD D10, HiLo Illustrious 18. The first table is 20:1 spread and the second 8:1. Penetrations are from 26 to 52 cards remaining.

Cards	<=-1	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	>=10	Risk	W/R	DI
26	1	1	2	4	8	11	14	17	20	20	20	20	9.5%	6.34	9.65
27	1	1	2	5	8	11	14	17	20	20	20	20	10.0%	6.18	9.42
28	1	1	2	5	8	11	14	17	20	20	20	20	10.3%	5.99	9.22
29	1	1	2	5	8	11	14	17	20	20	20	20	10.5%	5.85	9.07
30	1	1	2	5	8	11	15	18	20	20	20	20	11.1%	5.82	8.93
31	1	1	2	5	8	12	15	18	20	20	20	20	11.7%	5.73	8.76
32	1	1	2	5	8	12	15	19	20	20	20	20	12.2%	5.59	8.56
33	1	1	2	5	9	12	16	19	20	20	20	20	13.2%	5.47	8.31
34	1	1	2	5	9	13	17	20	20	20	20	20	14.6%	5.39	8.04
35	1	1	2	6	9	13	17	20	20	20	20	20	15.5%	5.18	7.77
36	1	1	2	6	10	13	17	20	20	20	20	20	16.4%	5.00	7.51
37	1	1	2	6	10	14	18	20	20	20	20	20	17.5%	4.89	7.29
38	1	1	2	6	10	14	18	20	20	20	20	20	18.0%	4.71	7.10
39	1	1	2	6	10	15	19	20	20	20	20	20	19.0%	4.69	6.97
40	1	1	2	6	10	15	19	20	20	20	20	20	19.2%	4.60	6.88
41	1	1	2	6	11	15	19	20	20	20	20	20	19.9%	4.57	6.79
42	1	1	2	6	11	15	20	20	20	20	20	20	20.7%	4.51	6.66
43	1	1	2	6	11	16	20	20	20	20	20	20	21.6%	4.40	6.50
44	1	1	2	7	11	16	20	20	20	20	20	20	22.7%	4.24	6.27
45	1	1	2	7	12	17	20	20	20	20	20	20	24.3%	4.12	6.03
46	1	1	2	7	12	18	20	20	20	20	20	20	25.7%	3.91	5.76
47	1	1	2	7	13	18	20	20	20	20	20	20	27.0%	3.72	5.51
48	1	1	2	8	13	19	20	20	20	20	20	20	28.7%	3.61	5.30
49	1	1	2	8	14	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	30.2%	3.56	5.16
50	1	1	2	8	14	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	30.6%	3.45	5.05
51	1	1	2	8	14	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	30.7%	3.39	5.00
52	1	1	2	8	14	20	20	20	20	20	20	20	31.0%	3.34	4.94

Cards	<=-1	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	>=10	Risk	W/R	DI
26	2	2	2	6	11	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	18.6%	2.56	7.33
27	2	2	2	6	11	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	19.7%	2.50	7.13
28	2	2	2	7	11	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	20.6%	2.46	6.96
29	2	2	2	7	11	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	21.1%	2.40	6.83
30	2	2	2	7	11	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	21.5%	2.35	6.71
31	1	1	1	4	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	5.3%	2.34	6.56
32	1	1	1	4	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	5.6%	2.27	6.39
33	1	1	1	4	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	6.0%	2.17	6.17
34	1	1	1	4	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	6.6%	2.06	5.92
35	1	1	1	4	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	7.8%	2.01	5.67
36	1	1	1	4	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8.5%	1.91	5.43
37	1	1	1	4	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9.1%	1.83	5.23
38	1	1	1	4	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	10.5%	1.82	5.06
39	1	1	1	4	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	10.9%	1.77	4.95
40	1	1	1	5	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	11.8%	1.79	4.88
41	1	1	1	5	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	12.1%	1.76	4.81
42	1	1	1	5	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	12.6%	1.71	4.71
43	1	1	1	5	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	13.2%	1.65	4.56
44	1	1	1	5	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	14.2%	1.56	4.36
45	1	1	2	5	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	15.9%	1.48	4.12
46	1	1	2	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	18.4%	1.42	3.87
47	1	1	2	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	20.0%	1.31	3.64
48	1	1	2	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	21.4%	1.23	3.44
49	1	1	2	6	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	22.4%	1.17	3.31
50	1	1	2	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	24.4%	1.18	3.22
51	1	1	2	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	24.6%	1.16	3.19
52	1	1	2	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	25.0%	1.14	3.15

[Good Gamer]

Thank you very much, Norm.

One clarification, however: When I look at your
data for the 8x1 spread with 52 cards remaining, the win is 1.14 whereas the same game for H17 on page 214 of Don's book shows a win of .90. I would have expected the win-rate to be much less for D10.

Similarly, the 52 card DI for 8x1 is 3.15, only slightly less than the 3.39 DI for the H17 version of the same game on page 225 of Don's book. Given the huge DI dropoff for SD versions of these 2 games, I'm not sure this is a direct comparison of assumptions.

My best guess is that you Sim'd this for back-counting instead of play-all but I'm not sure. Since the game in question is No mid-game entry, I can't back-count it. Any thoughts?

Again, thanks Norm, I appreciate your help.

GG

> Below are optimal bets, Risk assuming $800
> bankroll, Win Rate in units, and DI for DD
> D10, HiLo Illustrious 18. The first table is
> 20:1 spread and the second 8:1. Penetrations
> are from 26 to 52 cards remaining.

> Cards 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
> >=10 Risk W/R DI 26 1 1 2 4 8
> 11 14 17 20 20 20 20 9.5% 6.34 9.65
> 27 1 1 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 20 20
> 20 10.0% 6.18 9.42 28 1 1 2 5 8
> 11 14 17 20 20 20 20 10.3% 5.99
> 9.22 29 1 1 2 5 8 11 14 17 20
> 20 20 20 10.5% 5.85 9.07 30 1 1 2
> 5 8 11 15 18 20 20 20 20 11.1%
> 5.82 8.93 31 1 1 2 5 8 12 15 18
> 20 20 20 20 11.7% 5.73 8.76 32 1
> 1 2 5 8 12 15 19 20 20 20 20
> 12.2% 5.59 8.56 33 1 1 2 5 9 12
> 16 19 20 20 20 20 13.2% 5.47 8.31
> 34 1 1 2 5 9 13 17 20 20 20 20
> 20 14.6% 5.39 8.04 35 1 1 2 6 9
> 13 17 20 20 20 20 20 15.5% 5.18
> 7.77 36 1 1 2 6 10 13 17 20 20
> 20 20 20 16.4% 5.00 7.51 37 1 1 2
> 6 10 14 18 20 20 20 20 20 17.5%
> 4.89 7.29 38 1 1 2 6 10 14 18 20
> 20 20 20 20 18.0% 4.71 7.10 39 1
> 1 2 6 10 15 19 20 20 20 20 20
> 19.0% 4.69 6.97 40 1 1 2 6 10 15
> 19 20 20 20 20 20 19.2% 4.60 6.88
> 41 1 1 2 6 11 15 19 20 20 20 20
> 20 19.9% 4.57 6.79 42 1 1 2 6 11
> 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 20.7% 4.51
> 6.66 43 1 1 2 6 11 16 20 20 20
> 20 20 20 21.6% 4.40 6.50 44 1 1 2
> 7 11 16 20 20 20 20 20 20 22.7%
> 4.24 6.27 45 1 1 2 7 12 17 20 20
> 20 20 20 20 24.3% 4.12 6.03 46 1
> 1 2 7 12 18 20 20 20 20 20 20
> 25.7% 3.91 5.76 47 1 1 2 7 13 18
> 20 20 20 20 20 20 27.0% 3.72 5.51
> 48 1 1 2 8 13 19 20 20 20 20 20
> 20 28.7% 3.61 5.30 49 1 1 2 8 14
> 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30.2% 3.56
> 5.16 50 1 1 2 8 14 20 20 20 20
> 20 20 20 30.6% 3.45 5.05 51 1 1 2
> 8 14 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 30.7%
> 3.39 5.00 52 1 1 2 8 14 20 20 20
> 20 20 20 20 31.0% 3.34 4.94
> Cards 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
> >=10 Risk W/R DI 26 2 2 2 6 11
> 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 18.6% 2.56
> 7.33 27 2 2 2 6 11 16 16 16 16
> 16 16 16 19.7% 2.50 7.13 28 2 2 2
> 7 11 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 20.6%
> 2.46 6.96 29 2 2 2 7 11 16 16 16
> 16 16 16 16 21.1% 2.40 6.83 30 2
> 2 2 7 11 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
> 21.5% 2.35 6.71 31 1 1 1 4 6 8 8
> 8 8 8 8 8 5.3% 2.34 6.56 32 1 1
> 1 4 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 5.6% 2.27
> 6.39 33 1 1 1 4 6 8 8 8 8 8 8
> 8 6.0% 2.17 6.17 34 1 1 1 4 6 8
> 8 8 8 8 8 8 6.6% 2.06 5.92 35 1
> 1 1 4 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7.8% 2.01
> 5.67 36 1 1 1 4 7 8 8 8 8 8 8
> 8 8.5% 1.91 5.43 37 1 1 1 4 7 8
> 8 8 8 8 8 8 9.1% 1.83 5.23 38 1
> 1 1 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10.5% 1.82
> 5.06 39 1 1 1 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
> 8 10.9% 1.77 4.95 40 1 1 1 5 8
> 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 11.8% 1.79 4.88 41
> 1 1 1 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 12.1%
> 1.76 4.81 42 1 1 1 5 8 8 8 8 8
> 8 8 8 12.6% 1.71 4.71 43 1 1 1 5
> 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 13.2% 1.65 4.56
> 44 1 1 1 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
> 14.2% 1.56 4.36 45 1 1 2 5 8 8 8
> 8 8 8 8 8 15.9% 1.48 4.12 46 1
> 1 2 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 18.4% 1.42
> 3.87 47 1 1 2 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
> 8 20.0% 1.31 3.64 48 1 1 2 6 8
> 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 21.4% 1.23 3.44 49
> 1 1 2 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 22.4%
> 1.17 3.31 50 1 1 2 7 8 8 8 8 8
> 8 8 8 24.4% 1.18 3.22 51 1 1 2 7
> 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 24.6% 1.16 3.19
> 52 1 1 2 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
> 25.0% 1.14 3.15

[Norm Wattenberger]

The tables came from CVCX. CVCX calculates the optimal bets according to the method used in BJA Chapter 11. That method provides better numbers than the method used in Chapter 10. Hence, the improved results.

[Good Gamer]

is much better than I expected but it appears that getting that win is dependent on assuming the risk inherent in a willingness to ramp to 20 units with a true-count of just +4 with 1.0 pen.

I never thought I'd be this anxious to play a D10 DD game (about the worst rules I've seen for DD).

Thanks for your help, Norm.

GG

> The tables came from CVCX. CVCX calculates
> the optimal bets according to the method
> used in BJA Chapter 11. That method provides
> better numbers than the method used in
> Chapter 10. Hence, the improved results.

[Norm Wattenberger]

The required Kelly bank, giving a 13.5% risk of ruin, would be 1,366 units.

[Good Gamer]

as I'm used to big bankroll fluctuations. I'm just glad that the new min-max on the game triples my win-rate and gives me an alternative to the 6D around here.

> The required Kelly bank, giving a 13.5%
> risk of ruin, would be 1,366 units.