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Dog Hand: B.S. for Cicero's "No Bust 22" game
Cicero,
I finally figured out how to post a table, so I could present the B.S. for your game... however, I guess I still need to learn a thing or two about HTML, because I see this post has a large gap just before the table... oh, well!
First, a few words about my methodology. To simplify the calculations, I assumed "infinite decks". This means that the player's chance of drawing, say, a 5, is always 1/13, regardless of how many 5's are already in his and the dealer's hands. This also means that the dealer's final results are independent of the player's hand. For these final results, I used the output from Eric Farmer's "bj5" software for a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS game. For splits, I accounted only for a single split.
Now, for the results! The last row of the table below shows the player's EV (as a fraction) for each dealer's upcard, as well as overall (the final number). Thus, against a dealer's Ace, your EV is a dismal -25.3%, while against an X, your EV is -8.6%. However, against any other dealer upcard, your EV is positive, ranging from +4.7% vs. 9 to +30.3% vs. a 6. The player's overall EV is an impressive +7.6%. This means you should play all 7 spots on the table and bet the $100 max each and every hand. You'll win an average of $50/round, so for 100 rounds per hour, you'll rake in a thoroughly acceptable $5K/hr.
Changes in normal B.S. are pretty obvious. You DD with 12 vs. 2-8, since you cannot bust. Similarly, you never split 6's. Overall, you DD less than "normal" on soft hands. You hit on 13 against all upcards, and on 14 vs. a 2 or 3. You split more often: 9's vs. 7, 8's vs. X, 7's vs. 8, 4's vs. 4, 3's vs. 7-9, and 2's vs. EVERYTHING except A's. Also, you NEVER surrender (unless they let you surrender against an Ace, which would make the game even better). The closest case is 16 vs. X, for which hitting has an EV of -0.48149, as compared to -0.5 for early surrendering.
If you'd like more information, feel free to email me. Also, be sure to send me my 10% cut ;-)
Dog Hand
Hand | A | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | X | |
21 | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | |
20 | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | |
19 | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | |
18 | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | |
17 | Hit | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | |
16 | Hit | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
15 | Hit | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
14 | Hit | Hit | Hit | Stand | Stand | Stand | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
13 | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
12 | Hit | DD | DD | DD | DD | DD | DD | DD | Hit | Hit | |
11 | Hit | DD | DD | DD | DD | DD | DD | DD | DD | Hit | |
10 | Hit | DD | DD | DD | DD | DD | DD | DD | Hit | Hit | |
9 | Hit | Hit | Hit | DD | DD | DD | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
<=8 | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
A-X | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | |
A-9 | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | |
A-8 | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | Stand | |
A-7 | Hit | Stand | DD/S | DD/S | DD/S | DD/S | Stand | Stand | Hit | Hit | |
A-6 | Hit | Hit | Hit | DD | DD | DD | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
A-5 | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | DD | DD | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
A-4 | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | DD | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
A-3 | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
A-2 | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | Hit | |
A-A | No S | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | |
X-X | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | |
9-9 | No S | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | No S | |
8-8 | No S | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | |
7-7 | No S | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | No S | No S | |
6-6 | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | |
5-5 | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | No S | |
4-4 | No S | No S | No S | Split | Split | Split | No S | No S | No S | No S | |
3-3 | No S | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | No S | |
2-2 | No S | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | Split | |
EV | -0.2531 | 0.1657 | 0.1953 | 0.2296 | 0.2671 | 0.3036 | 0.2389 | 0.1459 | 0.0475 | -0.0863 | 0.0765 |
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