Dog Hand: What am I doing wrong?

[Dog Hand]

Folks,

I've been working out a "new BS" for the game described by Cicero in the thread below. However, I'm getting a "new BS" Player's Edge of 1.85%, which seems so high that I feel I'm not calculating the EV correctly.

I'm posting this in hopes of getting answers to these questions.

1. Using Cacarulo's numbers posted at bjmath for a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS, RSA=0, RSP=4 game (see link below), can someone describe how to calculate Cacarulo's reported BS EV of -0.402225%? I discovered that the main differences between these posted numbers and the values given in BJA3 are in the Frequencies. The posted Frequencies (called Probability on the webpage) are the probs BEFORE the dealer checks for BJ, while the Frequencies in BJA3 are for AFTER the dealer checks for BJ (according to the statement at the end of the first paragraph on page 392).

2. How will the BS EV change for Cicero's game, which is ENHC but with ES10?

3. Related to (2), why do my calculations show the following EV's for A,A vs. A: Stand=-0.770084, Hit=-0.325989, Double=-0.738224, Split=-0.223037; which implies that Splitting is the best option?

Once I get this figured out, I should be able to find the "new BS" for Cicero's weird game.

Thanks in advance!

Dog Hand

Cacarulo's 6D S17 Numbers

[Cicero]

..split AA vs A cannot be correct, because the game does not change in this case: it is ENHC and you get only 1 card. so it does not matter whether 22 busts the player or not.
The trivial BS changes seem to be: always hit hard 12, hit hard 13 vs 2,3. hit 3 or more card 16 vs 10.
i assume, but do not consider it trivial: hit 17 vs A, dont surrender 14 vs 10. not sure about 17 vs 7,8,9,10.
I think double hard 12 vs 5,6, nothing else.
I think the EV of 1.85% is not too high, this promotion seems to be indeed very nice (I have seen better ones with jokers).

Cicero

> Folks,

> I've been working out a "new BS" for the
> game described by Cicero in the thread below. However,
> I'm getting a "new BS" Player's Edge of
> 1.85%, which seems so high that I feel I'm not
> calculating the EV correctly.

> I'm posting this in hopes of getting answers to these
> questions.

> 1. Using Cacarulo's numbers posted at bjmath for a 6D,
> S17, DA2, DAS, RSA=0, RSP=4 game (see link below), can
> someone describe how to calculate Cacarulo's reported
> BS EV of -0.402225%? I discovered that the main
> differences between these posted numbers and the
> values given in BJA3 are in the Frequencies. The
> posted Frequencies (called Probability on the webpage)
> are the probs BEFORE the dealer checks for BJ, while
> the Frequencies in BJA3 are for AFTER the dealer
> checks for BJ (according to the statement at the end
> of the first paragraph on page 392).

> 2. How will the BS EV change for Cicero's game, which
> is ENHC but with ES10?

> 3. Related to (2), why do my calculations show the
> following EV's for A,A vs. A: Stand=-0.770084,
> Hit=-0.325989, Double=-0.738224, Split=-0.223037;
> which implies that Splitting is the best option?

> Once I get this figured out, I should be able to find
> the "new BS" for Cicero's weird game.

> Thanks in advance!

> Dog Hand