Thanks. I didn't expect #4, but #1, #2, #3 make sense.Originally Posted by dhizzle
Sorry I'm no help with the book.
HowMany --
#4 is somewhat misleading. But the bottom line is that book managers have realized over time where they get beat up and, as a result, many bets that we used to be able to make freely are now scrutinized and often rejected. It is not that the managers themselves would really have much of a prayer of making a living (or even a profit) themselves, but many of them have come to recognize betting types and patterns that have beaten them up over the years. As a result where we used to be able to bet substantial sums on some of the best EV opportunities, we now frequently find ourselves limited or backed off entirely -- despite the fact that we have rotated new blood thru Vegas every year.
Regards,
Hizzle
Yeah, I know what you mean. My Dad was killing the college Basketball tourney this year and the offshore books bet restricted him on his teasers. He had been doing 3 team teasers with a big move on a later game as the third and then taking a moneyline bet on the long shot so he would win big either way the last game came out. After making his initial investment into 15 times that and continuing to press his bets they bet restricted his teasers to a fraction of what he had been playing at.
Tthree --
CBB teasers? I have to say that those are generally not very good bets at all. I do not know one professional bettor who bets BB teasers, let alone CBB teasers. If you father was beating those, he is either a very good handicapper, or got incredibly lucky. As far as betting the third leg on a game with a big move, EV is EV, so why take the moneyline the other way unless you think it is at least break even? Your father may be a phenomenal handicapper, but I would never bet CBB teasers myself. The vol (especially in the tourney) is just to high.
Regards,
Hizzle
Although it's not the point of the thread, since it's being discussed I'll join in.
If I could book college teasers (football or hoops), I would start a career as a bookmaker right now. NBA teasers included.
Now, NFL teasers are a different animal. I believe a sharp bettor can selectively beat them laying no more than 11/10.
My apologies to the OP for staying off topic. Hope you find a copy of Ex CAA.
He has beaten these bets for years. A couple decades ago he broke a book who thought like you. If you pick high enough percentage the best payoff is parlays and teasers make them almost a sure thing. College basketball has always been his speciality. He picked over 70% ATS over a 10 or 15 year period in college hoops. Teasing the spread just makes it easier to do. It gets him near perfect. He is pretty good at pro football but I am better. His college hoops handicapping has been unbelievable.
Tthree --
My argument is not that no one can beat CBB teasers, it is more that, if you can beat them, you would have an even better return doing straight bets and perhaps some correlated parlays. That is why I commented that your dad must be a very good handicapper. I was never a handicapper, I was a bettor. The difference is that I generally start with an assumption of market efficiency and look for ways to exploit correlations and conversion errors between types of betting (or simply off-market numbers offered by unbalanced books looking for two-way action.)
Anyway, kudos to your dad for making money. I just think that he could make more by betting a different way.
Regards,
Hizzle
Last edited by dhizzle; 06-22-2013 at 06:27 PM.
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