Apologies: noob question

[Preferrd]

Fresh update: Disaster! I had what I thought to be the juiciest shoe I had yet seen at a casino. The running count got up to +18 and stayed between 14-18 for about 8 rounds from 2 decks remaining in a 6D shoe at my local casino. There were only 2 of us at the table at the start but suddenly 2 more jokesters sit down on my right. And As I'm putting out my max bets I'm taking 13, 14, 15 and busting every hand while the rest of the table is getting the good stuff. The player who had been there the whole time is still betting minimum but at least one of the 2 newcomers is betting heavily. I don't know what would have happened if they hadn't sat down but it still pissed me off and I started to get suspicious about their motivation in sitting down at that particular moment. I felt like the table belonged to me and they stole all my cards... I'm probably thinking superstitiously but it brings me to another question:

Say I'm playing at a table of maybe 6 people. Should that alter my betting strategy? I mean, Doesn't a TC+1 playing alone and a TC+1 with 6 people playing seem a little different?

[Preferrd]

You bet the same but it really hurts your chances. The good counts come rare enough you want to get lots of hands particularly at deeper penetration. You are more likely to get the cards at deeper penetration. You could be betting into a wad of low cards at any count. The more low cards in the deck the better the chances are and the larger the clump can be. At deeper penetration the variance of what cards can show goes down which makes your chances better.

Think of it like drawing marbles form a bag with equal number of black and white marbles. If there are 200 marbles in the bag drawing 10 white marbles isn't going to change your chances of the next being white very much 100/200 to 90/190. If there are 50 in the bag 25/50 to 15/40. If 20 marbles 10/20 to 0/10.

But isn't the TC the count per deck? It isn't as if our imaginary deck were shrinking. Its still a theoretical "52" card deck no? Just that its got 5 extra high cards instead of low ones. Same as if it were a single deck shoe right? Shouldn't the average advantage be the same at each TC?

[Preferrd]

My last question was also in regards to penetration. If the True Count is in proportion to an imaginary "True Deck" which by which we judge the value of the remaining shoe, then why does deeper penetration increase our EV? Should not our EV at TC+6 at 10% penetration be the same at 80% penetration into the deck?

Though I suppose you never know how many neutral cards, nor low or high, unless you are counting them. At TCZero are you really know is that there are an equal number of low and high cards in the deck for a hi-lo count.

I still don't understand why things get better at deeper penetrations. Is it only because the frequency of higher counts rises or does the efficiency of the system actually get better?

Does the EV of TC+5 rise with respect to penetration?

[Norm]

At deeper penetrations, you get more high (and low) TCs because the numerator is smaller. The deeper the penetration, the more info you have. If only one card was left, you would know if it was high, low or neutral.

[alexost]

At deeper penetrations, you get more high (and low) TCs because the numerator is smaller. The deeper the penetration, the more info you have. If only one card was left, you would know if it was high, low or neutral.

The deeper the pen the smaller the denominator. No?

[Preferrd]

d of low cards (add to +10) comes out at TC 0 and there is 5 decks left? What happens to the count? What if there is 2 decks left? What about 1 deck left?

If there are 5 decks left at TC +6 what are the chances a wad of low cards are about to be dealt? What if one deck remained? Is there the same chance of a wad of low cards about to hit the table? One low card yes, but the dealer drawing a 6 card 21?

Well the chances of the dealer drawing 6 low cards in a row in 5 decks with 30 extra hi cards (TC+6) would depend on the number of neutrals in the deck. Are there 200 neutrals, 30 lows, and 60 highs? Or are there 60 neutrals, 85 lows, and 115 highs? The same problem occurs in a single deck does it not?

[Preferrd]

23 HIGHS, 17 LOWS, AND 12 NEUTRALS in a single deck is pretty much the same ratio as 115 - 85 - 60 so, doing the maths the chances of getting a low card in the 5 decks is 85/260 = .326 and in the single deck is also .326 (17/52)

but, (17/52) * (16/51) * (15/50) = .0307

while (85/260) * (84/259) * (83/258) = .0341

You have better chances of those low cards in succession with several decks I guess!

[Preferrd]

Yes I see what you mean. However, I'm not quite sure what you mean by "total odds." Did you forget a zero in there?

[Preferrd]

aha. theres a % sign in there!