This Forum is Free to join it is also Free to leave.Originally Posted by Bjshufflemachin
I can't figure out who is trolling here. I know most of you have never played a positive off the top game but if a game can be beat by flat betting, it can be beat by counting, even with very shallow pen. The question isn't whether it's beatable but whether it's worthwhile. The problem with this game is the edge is small, unless other perks from rate play add value too. Flat betting it, the SCORE is around 1. How much will you gain by counting? Maybe you get to 10, maybe 50, maybe more. I think UK-21's advice is the right approach, with the question being what is the buffer size. I don't know if anyone here knows for sure and if they do they may not be interested in sharing that info. I believe it's possible to sim this windowed count approach with CVData using the MRI slice feature to look at only the third round of each shoe. I don't have my computer right now but maybe norm can jump in and explain this feature (I've never used it). If you are always using the count from the previous 2 rounds, you are essentially always on the third round of the shoe, so this should tell you what your edge and SCORE are, then you can decide if it's worthwhile to play.
Bearing in mind the crux of this thread is that the game in question is one with a small OTT advantage, I think I should have added that I'm use to playing a game with a HE of 0.55% (which is pretty standard across the UK).
I think it stands to reason that if we're discussing a game with a marginal OTT advantage, then there is scope to use counting techniques to identify where this is further increased when playing against a 1-2-6. The question as to whether it's worth pursuing this or not is slightly different one, and is subjective - based on betting ramp, bankroll, RoR you're prepared to accept yada yada yada. It certainly isn't worth it if you usually play with red chips. If you play blacks, and are prepared to gag on the risk factor, you might think it is?
I believe that any views that the cards that are re-inserted back into the shuffler have the potential to be re-dealt straightaway is in error, as there's quite clearly a degree of latency in the machine - as it rotates the ferris wheel and finds empty or partly filled slots and pull's cards from the insert tray into these slots, at the same time as cards that have been previously dropped into the discharge ramp at the other end are being dealt out. There's a definite process trail here, and it's just not possible to jump from one end of it straight to the other.
I may be completely wrong, but I've estimated the latency in the machine to be two rounds - as this represents around half a deck on a fully occupied table, and I suspect that the discharge ramp will hold up to half a deck of cards (having examined photos of the internal dimensions) which is also he equivalent to around two fully occupied slots worth. When cards are inserted, the discharge ramp will always end up being fully primed - to allow for uninterrupted play. If someone can find out for certain what the capacity of the discharge ramp this estimate can be firmed up. So who knows someone what works at a shop that uses these things?
Looking at this photo (http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/alb...tachmentid=383) I've counted 10 slots on a quarter of the wheel, so 40 on the whole wheel?
My final word to Bjshufflemachin is that I wish you the best of luck with your endeavours, but I do agree with others that this is going to be a lot of hard graft, carrying increased variance, for the return your going to reap over and above playing basic with the OTT+EV game.
Cheers.
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Visit UK-21's Degenerate Gamblers Pages - www.uk-21.org
Well, if you can make millions flat betting then flat bet, make your millions, and STFU! As for the rest of your post, you don't have a clue what you're talking about but you think you know everything...except how to count against a CSM that you can make millions flat betting against. So, tell me smart guy, why does you casino like giving away millions and how long until they run dry?
With such shallow pen, what is the advantage in trying to count this game? You're basically going to be flat betting most of the time anyway, and bigger bets would be so rare it would be difficult, if not impossible to gauge their effectiveness. You'd have to remember to constantly start the count over every 2 rounds or so. Index plays would be silly and ineffective. You may never have a count high enough to make an insurance call and if you do, it would be based on so little information that it too would be rendered ineffective. I actually think that trying to count this game would be counter-productive (or should I say non-counter-productive?).
Obviously the TC distribution won't be very wide but starting at a slight edge off the top, if the op doesn't mind a high n0, he should find quite a few opportunities to bet with an extra .5-.75% advantage. If the SCORE is weak but he can sit there all day betting to a big bankroll, that may be an acceptable tradeoff.
Another thought I had is that the op might want to just treat this as a running count system on the sim since the divisor would always be about the same. This will give you more precise edge info by RC so you can bet more correctly based on your exact edge.
Nyne, it reminds me of some stuff we talked about & some related stuff I researched after. It definitely is possible to get an advantage with 33% pen, even in a game with a positive HE, but the required system is non-trivial, and there are obviously much easier ways to make a hard buck. That, and I think OP wouldn't really have the tools to really make it happen (otherwise this thread wouldn't be here, I think).
If you are pro, I'm Bruce Wayne... If you were pro, you should know about it...
"You can't use your card-counting techniques against the machines, but you can certainly still find "opportunities" to play."
Don Schlesinger.
"Card counting simply won't give you an advantage on these machines."
Norman Wattenberger.
Or you don't even know them Mr. Beginner Questions Pro?
"None so blind as those who will not see".
Midnighttoker, I think the stuff we were talking about will make a profit, but not enough to be worthwhile. The OP's game may well be in the same category, but depending on his situation, available bankroll, availability of other games, etc., it might be worth his time. I just wanted to help him figure out what to consider to make that determination. It seems most people here are still not understanding that with a positive off the top game (albeit only slightly) there is no house edge to overcome. The question is what does the advantage frequency distribution look like and how much can he afford to bet at any given edge, and what kind of score and hourly rate does that produce. With CVData he should be able to answer those questions.
Actually......... This (could) work --
You have three counts, one for each round (this is unde the assumption there is a 2-round-latency before cards can be replayed).
You have the two counts for the two rounds, as well as the count for the current round. If the previous two rounds's counts, when added together, is positive, then the counter should increase his bet, whether or not the RUNNING count is +1 or +20.
Why?
Player has an advantage off the top.
Usually when we count (take this example), there is a 0.5% house edge off the top, right? Rounding each TC to change the HE by about 0.5% per 1 TC, we see that at TC=2 there is a 0.5% PLAYER edge, which is why we increase our bets at TC=2.
However, this game is different. The player has the edge off the top. Although that edge is small, the player does not need a TC=2 in order to increase his bet and have an edge. He already has an edge.
If on the other hand (for this example I'll assume every 1 TC is exactly and always 0.5% change in edge), well....we know the player has a 0.08% edge off the top, right? At which point is the "edge" going to be exactly 0.0% (ie: neither player nor casino has an edge)? If my math is accurate, 0.08 / 0.5 = 0.16, meaning that whenever the TC is -0.16, neither the player nor house have an edge. A running count of -1 (TC is -1/5.5 ~ -0.1818), should give around a 0% edge either way. Meaning, if the count is 0 or higher, make your bet. If the count is -1 or lower, decrease your bet. Whenever the running count increases, increase your bet. How much do you need to increase your bet? I have no idea. A pro, like you, should know.
"Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]
Yes, but you will really need to take the penetration into consideration because they won't consistently play out two decks before shuffle. Sometimes it is .25 deck played and then shuffle and sometimes .50 decks played, 1 deck played and etc. You will be waiting for a long time for positive situation with this bad penetration.
With a .16 edge is still not work playing.
Last edited by seriousplayer; 07-19-2013 at 07:16 PM.
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