Originally Posted by
RollingStoned
Actually......... This (could) work --
You have three counts, one for each round (this is unde the assumption there is a 2-round-latency before cards can be replayed).
You have the two counts for the two rounds, as well as the count for the current round. If the previous two rounds's counts, when added together, is positive, then the counter should increase his bet, whether or not the RUNNING count is +1 or +20.
Why?
Player has an advantage off the top.
Usually when we count (take this example), there is a 0.5% house edge off the top, right? Rounding each TC to change the HE by about 0.5% per 1 TC, we see that at TC=2 there is a 0.5% PLAYER edge, which is why we increase our bets at TC=2.
However, this game is different. The player has the edge off the top. Although that edge is small, the player does not need a TC=2 in order to increase his bet and have an edge. He already has an edge.
If on the other hand (for this example I'll assume every 1 TC is exactly and always 0.5% change in edge), well....we know the player has a 0.08% edge off the top, right? At which point is the "edge" going to be exactly 0.0% (ie: neither player nor casino has an edge)? If my math is accurate, 0.08 / 0.5 = 0.16, meaning that whenever the TC is -0.16, neither the player nor house have an edge. A running count of -1 (TC is -1/5.5 ~ -0.1818), should give around a 0% edge either way. Meaning, if the count is 0 or higher, make your bet. If the count is -1 or lower, decrease your bet. Whenever the running count increases, increase your bet. How much do you need to increase your bet? I have no idea. A pro, like you, should know.
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