Rule of 45

[blondeboyz]

Hello fellow players, I would like to ask a question about the Rule of 45. Let me first introduce myself. I love playing blackjack and my only opportunity to do so are on cruise ships usually twice a year. This past February I left with an extra $500 in my pocket from usually betting $25 and watching the "flow" of cards being played. I can play BS with my eyes closed but want to add any slight advantages that I can.

Here is my question. The rules I have read say to stand on hard 16 combinations containing a 4 or 5, such as 8/5/3 or 4/9/2 or 7/5/4. I can understand that if the last hit you took was a 4 or 5 then you've cut your chances of the next card being a 4 or 5. But if the 4 or 5 came in the first or second card that you are dealt at a crowded table (as cruise ships usually are) and you are playing a 6 or 8 deck shoe, then there are 7 - 14 or more cards (depending what base you sit at) coming out of the shoe before your turn to play. So, is the Rule of 45 not suited for use at a crowded table or with a 6 or 8 deck shoe or if it comes out in your first or second card?

I thank you for your opinions and the "Rule of 9" will be next! lol

[shadroch]

A four or a five as your last card is exactly the same as one that was your first card. What matters is the number of fours and fives that have already come out, not when they came out.
Obviously, this is much more important in single or double deck than it is in eight decks.
I'm not really that familiar with the rule of 45, but would think it is near useless in an eight deck shoe.

[Norm]

cruise ships usually twice a year. This past February I left with an extra $500 in my pocket from usually betting $25 and watching the "flow" of cards being played.

The only "flow" on a cruise ship is around the ship. Cards don't flow. The Rule of 45 is essentially meaningless in a shoe game. The number of players is not relevant. What is relevant is the number of other cards that exist.

[bigplayer]

Just watching the "flow" of the cards is not enough on shoe games to swing the edge in a way that will make a significant difference. If you just want to earn some comps and you're happy that and don't want to count, learn basic strategy but realize that it's called BASIC because that is what it is....just plain old basic. If you want to swing the edge to your favor you're gonna have to bite the bullet and really learn how to count cards and actually do it. Aside from that I defer to Norm.

[Renzey]

Hello fellow players, I would like to ask a question about the Rule of 45. The rule says to stand on hard 16 combinations containing a 4 or 5, such as 8/5/3 or 4/9/2 or 7/5/4. I can understand that if the last hit you took was a 4 or 5 then you've cut your chances of the next card being a 4 or 5. But if the 4 or 5 came in the first or second card that you are dealt at a crowded table and you are playing a 6 or 8 deck shoe, then there are 7 - 14 or more cards coming out of the shoe before your turn to play. So, is the Rule of 45 not suited for use at a crowded table or with a 6 or 8 deck shoe or if it comes out in your first or second card?

The Rule of 45 is intended for 16 against a dealer's 10 only. Further, it is a composition-sensitive refinement to mere "basic" basic strategy. In essence, it is "snipet" card counting of your own hand and the dealer's up-card only. It does not consider other cards that may be visible on the board, nor other cards that have been dealt on previous rounds.
The fewer decks you are playing with, the more help the Rule of 45 will be to your basic strategy decision. But even with 8 decks, it is still mathematically proper to favor the Rule of 45 over "basic" basic strategy.
It's true that overall, the difference it will make is very, very small. Then again, with 340 different hand situations to be dealt, several correct pure basic strategy decisions will make even less difference, such as doubling or not doubling with A/2 vs 5, splitting or not splitting with 3/3 vs 2 and aome others.

Shadroch gave you the right info regarding the irrelevance of "when" the 4 or 5 came out. Point is, that 4 or 5 is now dead. BTW, the one 16 you always must hit is against a 7. There, you've got many more outs that will win the hand for you, with the exact same chance to bust when you hit. It's analogous to drawing to an open-end straight vs drawing to an inside straight in poker.

[GMack]

One other thing to add with 16v10 is to have a look at how many 10's vs small cards (2-5) are on the table when trying to make a decision.
If there is 1 small card extra compared to the number of 10's then the correct decision is to stand. This is because you have taken in to account more cards than what basic strategy or composition sensitive hands have. This is just one of Fred Renzey's 'magnificent 7' hands he describes in his book.

[BugsySeagull]

How much of a difference does it make in double deck? I've known that this is important in single deck games, but I always understood it to not make a difference in double deck or 6-8 deck shoes.

[GMack]

How much of a difference does it make in double deck? I've known that this is important in single deck games, but I always understood it to not make a difference in double deck or 6-8 deck shoes.

Playing ALL magnificent 7 hands properly makes a difference of .03% in double deck and also the same in six deck shoes. So very little in fact. Playing them in 8 decks is not worth bothering with. Playing the 16vs 10 makes up about half the above and is easy to figure out what to do in this instance. Just stand with this hand when there are more 2-5's than 10's on the board.

[Renzey]

Playing ALL magnificent 7 hands properly makes a difference of .03% in double deck and also the same in six deck shoes.

Quoting that statement out of context makes it sound illogical. But its reason is because double deck is assumed to be a "pitch" game offering far fewer exposed cards that can be taken into account.

[stopgambling]

If it's heads up DD ...... MR. Renzey.The rule of 4/5 from Mr. Renzey.I would use it when the count is exactly 0 and i see a extra 4 or 5(still of some use).

[Renzey]

The rule of 4/5 from Mr. Renzey: I would use when the count is exactly 0 and i see an extra 4 or 5(still of some use).

Agree. Although the Rule of 45 was derived as a basic strategy refinement for non-counters, I believe in using it when at a near-neutral count. Suppose for example you're at mid-shoe using Hi/Lo and the RC before the hand began was minus 1. The dealer has a playable 10 up, your hand is 10/3 and the only other player has 5/8. You hit and catch another 3 to give you 10/3/3 and bring the RC to zero. You don't know which specific low cards brought the RC to minus 1 before the hand began, but you do know that a 5 brought it to zero. I believe you should stand.
Yet, if the other player held 6/8 rather than 5/8, even though the RC would still be zero, I think you should hit. The reason for standing when looking at a 5/8 and a 10/3/3 with a zero TC is, one more of your key "outs" is known to be dead. The reason for hitting in view of a 6/8 and 10/3/3 with the same RC is that for your 16, the other player's 6 is essentially a dead bust card for you, and it might as well be a 10/8 as if the RC were minus 2 and the TC minus 0.7.
Similar arguments can be made with an RC of minus 1 and multiple 4's and/or 5's on the board.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

and while we are at it . . . how many angels can dance on the head of a pin ?