question about how to gain EV with high rolling ploppy wit 6 figure line of credit

[Goatlife]

so this guy that is a family friend is a purple chip min better ploppy... He truly believes in progressions and can't get talked out of them... i tried. He loves going to the casino with me because he has proven his ploppy status with the place he plays and he gets curtousy shuffles all the time so he has me tell him to shuffle negative counts away. I told him the progression thing isn't going to work but he can't be talked out of it and his reasoning is kind of solid he states, " i make alot of money and get stressed out at work... i am hear to have fun... drink 300 dollars a glass scotch and i don't need to get all involved in the math, its no fun and i like the thrill the progression gives me" This guy plays like once a month and makes about 2 million a year so he really isn't going to be interested in grinding out 1k an hour in high stake blackjack play. He knows counting work and he knows small cards suck but we had a shoe that went really positive the first three decks so all the baby cards came out and he said said this shoe sucks.. i said it won't for long.. and he says i don't care i want a shuffle, thanks but i don't want to listen this time....dealers shuffles out a true count of 14 (zen) ughhhh....


He winded up winning a session and tried to give me a tip (over a thousand dollars) and i said i don't want to accept it.. he said why? I said its not fair to you cause im freerolling you (remind you this guy is a family friend and i would never screw him or anyone else, just not in me to do that)...and im not going to put my own money into play with you cause you won't listen all the time to me so he says how can i get you to come back with me, this is the plan i came up with and we did a little bit of it for the next few shoes he played but the limo picked him up shortly after so i think we will try it more next time... so i came up with this plan... I need your guys opinion


he does this progression from 1 hands or 2 hands of 500 to 12k ... once his bets gets to be over 3k he only doubles for half......I told him this is dumb and he is over betting but he doesn't care... so i told him to let me take all his doubles and insurance bets. my max bet is a little north of 1k so i figured i could double for only 1k and insure for only 1k... does this make sense? what is the EV per situation? are there some doubles i should pass on? my roll is around 200 max bets now so am i taking on too much risk doing this? It seems like a highly profitable situation for me and doesn't rip off my friend because he is not doing this anyway....any thoughts?


ps. he doesn't want me wonging into his reserved game...i tried that already

[Brock W]

The doubles are worth a pile. Check out http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjtourn-doublechart.php Subtract the number in red from the number in blue and the result is your EV on the double. You can size your bets accordingly based on this but the correct play will almost certainly be to take as much of the double as he will allow. Unless the insurance is right on your index number you will likely want to take max on that as well. Don't bother with a spread that will get any kind of attention, focus on the free doubles.

[stopgambling]

Simply state KA- CHING!!!!!!! Seriously easy EV and just like a dream for the little guys who stresses out trying to make an extra 5-10% on their measly $25 -$35 EV.

[RS]

I've done this, to an extent, before. Friend playing green and whenever there'd be a double, I'd take on $5-25 of the double. Sometimes throw a few bucks on top of his bet. Best part is -- they didn't care I was doing this, because after all, the house edge on $50-100 bets by far outweighs the player edge on $5-25 bets. One thing to be careful of -- you DO NOT want to put your money on defensive splits. If you only put money out on doubles, insurance, etc...you are ALWAYS playing in +EV. You should be tipping your friend!

[Most Interesting Man]

Lol by taking his doubles you ARE screwing him over

When you tell him when to courtesy shuffle you're basically handing him a +EV game, assuming he has his basic strategy down, and he can still play his progressions. In that case you could accept some form of tip and he could still have +EV depending on the size. But even if he does overtip you, is gifting money to a friend the same as being screwed over? Would that very same money go to the casino instead? Wouldn't you take a cut of what the casino gets through your AP anyway?

[RS]

• Well, he's not necessarily screwing him over because SCG's friend wouldn't be taking the (full) double anyway. The only way to be "screwing him over" would be in some very specific circumstances, say he had a 9 with a 6 up and he wants to hit instead of double. You give him a fraction of the IB and he doubles. Of course, most of the time it's fine (assuming he wouldn't hit a 12+), but if he were to draw a 2, he would obviously want to hit again. Then again, it can only be determined after-the-fact (if you screwed him over or not)...and I think you said that when he doubles he doubles for less.
• Just be careful. People don't like it when you bet insurance because it's essentially betting against the player....which can cause some problems. Also, if he is a consistent winner with his martingale system, even though he's playing a -EV game....and you're playing those index plays....they might suspect something....it would be very bad for your friend to get backed off for something you're doing.

[Goatlife]

Lol by taking his doubles you ARE screwing him over

When you tell him when to courtesy shuffle you're basically handing him a +EV game, assuming he has his basic strategy down, and he can still play his progressions. In that case you could accept some form of tip and he could still have +EV depending on the size. But even if he does overtip you, is gifting money to a friend the same as being screwed over? Would that very same money go to the casino instead? Wouldn't you take a cut of what the casino gets through your AP anyway?

this guy still have some very hardwired voodoo believes. He never doubles for full for bets over 3k even though I advise him to always take full doubles... He will never do it so im not screwing him over because he won't do it anyway.

Bottom line.. when this guy needs my help i will be there.. I don't like working with civillians cause they just dont get what we do. They just don't get it. I tried a play with my father and it is amazing how hard wired some voodoo beliefs are in people. I am just working the hardest i could possibly work and eventually something will happen. I am very happy with my results and effort so far im just always trying to improve and get another edge..i figured the doubles and insurance was a good one.

[Goatlife]

The doubles are worth a pile. Check out http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjtourn-doublechart.php Subtract the number in red from the number in blue and the result is your EV on the double. You can size your bets accordingly based on this but the correct play will almost certainly be to take as much of the double as he will allow. Unless the insurance is right on your index number you will likely want to take max on that as well. Don't bother with a spread that will get any kind of attention, focus on the free doubles.

thank you very much!

[TheHypnoToad]

I would stick to scavenger play, like you suggested. No reason to tip them off that you're counting and they won't mind so long as the overall EV is +ve for them.

This could be a big win for you - the EV on some of these plays is huge so you can afford to play large amounts of your bank. Learn the edges for each hand so you know how much to put down...and hit it hard!

Good luck.

[Goatlife]

I would stick to scavenger play, like you suggested. No reason to tip them off that you're counting and they won't mind so long as the overall EV is +ve for them.

This could be a big win for you - the EV on some of these plays is huge so you can afford to play large amounts of your bank. Learn the edges for each hand so you know how much to put down...and hit it hard!

Good luck.

thanks buddy...