Need advice from someone experienced before putting money into it.
I am observing dealers at my local casino on roulette. Not talking about all dealers but three of them. I noticed following things.
1. There spin lands in a particular section.
2. When they start the spin it usually lands in around 6 numbers directly opposite to the number they started or in the same section they started. It falls somewhere in 6 numbers on both sides. So i would say i need to bet those 12 numbers.
Thorp has a passage on this in the "Mathematics Of Gambling".He calls it dealer signature.Originally Posted by Monkey man
Thorp suggests a system based on root mean square error presumably expressed in terms of pockets which is the sum of the error caused by where the ball drops off the rotor, the speed of the ball and finally the speed of the rotor.
In every case he looked at the error was much too high to get a predictive edge.
Now if your dealer really is spinning into those 12 numbers all of the time obviously you have a huge edge. But the dealer almost certainly isn't doing that. You probably noticed this during a relatively small number of spins. You get weird short-term phenomena like this but it is just how randomness works. If you take a larger sample you will see that the dealer spins into those 12 numbers about a third of the time.
Your scenario assumes that the speed at which the dealer shoots the ball and spins the roulette wheel is consistently the same or very close each time. You can use a stopwatch for timing and then observe the statistical results. However, in most casinos, this behavior is illegal. In that case, you can use "singing a song" as a substitute.
Team using stopwatch can have a 10+% advantage.
Even if the dealer flick is precisely 11.5 spins on every flick if the ball and always stops on the opposite side I suspect there is very little chance the wheel velocity is perfectly consistent. Just the slightest variation in the wheel spin will mess up the whole thing.
I guess there is a slight chance this could be mostly "consistent" enough if they always give the wheel an extra push right before the ball and if it seems to be same strength. However, be careful on drawing conclusions about this. Concerns about sample size are valid. You found the 3 dealers who are running a bit more towards the trend you are looking for. That's cherry-picking. And might not be valid for actual advantage play moving forward. I would continue to monitor to confirm. Best way to monitor would be to also maybe play at the table a little but instead of standing around and staring for two hours or whatever.
My hunch is that you didn't actually find an exploit. You simply found 3 dealers that happened to work in neatly to the trend you were hoping to find.
Ball and wheel velocity with some dealers is consistent. As per Laurence Scott, you can bet until no more bets is called and you can tell from the sound of the ball when this will occur. Problem is that the pockets in wheels have changed resulting in the area of the final landing spot being much less predictable.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Some say ‘dealer’s signature’ others ‘wheel bias’. The Hamburg Casino in Germany is arguablythe most open-minded. They publish online the results at their roulette tables. Most tables are for the American wheel. Hamburg Spielbank have 4 casinos. I guess links not allowed here.
Well, Hamburg had a problem a few years back. One of their wheels was badly biased. A group of Australians figured the bias was favorable to a section as in your observation. Some roulette numbers also came out far more frequently, way above norm (no, not him!)
Hamburg closed the table in question in a short time. They also decided to stop publication of the spins at all roulette tables.
After a few years Hamburg resumed their famous “Permanenzen” (spin results I guess). I saw the spins for April 27. I cant find any bias. Maybe you can. The casino also publishes a roundup of the day table by table. Table1 1 looks like this
Zahlen 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Häufigkeit 8 4 9 4 9 7 8 6 7 5 8 1 6 3 6 6 8 5 7 6 7 9 8 6 4 2 5 6 4 5 7 10 7 4 7 2 4
Coups Rot Schwarz Gerade Ungerade 1-18 19-36 1. DZ 2. DZ 3. DZ 1. Col 2. Col 3. Col 220 107 105 121 91 109 103 74 75 63 75 67 70
I cant figure what happened to 00 though. One table had 254 spins and no 00. The French tische was closed for the day (Saturday April 27, yesterday).
The UK equivalent of the American Bureau of Weights and Measures once ran tests on roulette wheels and found a tiny tilt of the wheel can cause noticeable bias. Many casinos in the US rotate roulette wheels from table to table nightly.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
Most biased wheel players and trackers know to memorize a unique visual characteristic of the wheel in order to locate the wheel overnight. This procedure mostly just serves to make it harder for the casino to work out how its losing money.
Data is for AR – American Roulette. FR is French Roulette on their site. I couldn’t find results for FR.
German as they may be, Hamburgers make a big mistake. They treat the spins as numbers. The computers treat 00=0. No German at this end, but I figured out the right way. The spins should be treated as words. Then the words 00 and 0 are different.
The results are in table format and there is no 00. I thought first all Hamburg wheels were badly biased. No 00 in over 1000 spins! No way! Can I post a link? Truncated spielbank-hamburg.de/esplanade/#permanenzen then Archiv, then Date, Table (Tische) then Zeigen. No 00.
I couldnt find a bias as in OPs observation because 00 was replaced by 0. 00 and 0 have different sectors as opposite sides.
A German-speaking guy here should bring this to Hamburg Spielbank bosses. Their Permanenzen are erroneous. I don’t say they do it on purpose to mislead system players.
BTW as per Norm’s post. Every roulette wheel is biased. I don’t think there a roulette wheel where all numbers have equal frequencies. But the bias is different from wheel to wheel. Maybe OP is onto something.
Even on an unbiased wheel the numbers will rarely have equal frequencies due to random fluctuation except over an extremely large sample size.
Assuming that all wheels are biased-which is questionable this isn't that interesting in itself. A weakly biased number with probability of occurrence of say 1/34 isn't worth betting on because of the high variance associated with a 35-1 shot even if you could actually verify it existed. A sector might be-but mainly you are looking for strong bias of <1/30.
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