New deck at cut

**toolyp** · Yesterday, 07:04 AM

Originally Posted by aceside

It’s clear you are well-read. I asked you two questions too, but you answered just one NOPE. Which one were you answering?

“Do you agree?”

I saw only ONE question: “Do you agree?” Maybe you should have asked “Do you agrees?” You got only one 777-streak(s): XYZ777PQW77777Y

No offence, just my honest opinion.

**toolyp** · Yesterday, 07:40 AM

Everything/body could go to nobody’s land. As Jane “Hanoi” Fonda put it in “They Shoot Horses, Don't They?”

“Whadda hell, forget it!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsKQiVJkEvI

**ShipTheCookies** · Yesterday, 07:41 AM

Originally Posted by toolyp

Please do so. Keep them streaks coming. I luv em Aussies streaking north. The Blondies know where the action is. I cant stress enuff- I luv em…

No offence, just my honest opinion.

Your opinion doesn't mean shit in a casino.

**Cacarulo** · Yesterday, 01:38 PM

Hi everyone,

After dusting off my streaks simulator and adapting it to the problems raised in this thread, my conclusion is that Don's results are correct.
Here are the results:

Code:

Prob   = 0.48
Trials = 7000
Iterations = 100000000

+---------+---------------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Lengths |        Total        |      Exact      |     At Least    |     At Most     |
+---------+---------------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
|    7    |                3144 |      0.0031440% |    100.0000000% |      0.0031440% |
|    8    |              703956 |      0.7039560% |     99.9968560% |      0.7071000% |
|    9    |             8651149 |      8.6511490% |     99.2929000% |      9.3582490% |
|   10    |            22772998 |     22.7729980% |     90.6417510% |     32.1312470% |
|   11    |            25891452 |     25.8914520% |     67.8687530% |     58.0226990% |
|   12    |            18997148 |     18.9971480% |     41.9773010% |     77.0198470% |
|   13    |            11204096 |     11.2040960% |     22.9801530% |     88.2239430% |
|   14    |             5939298 |      5.9392980% |     11.7760570% |     94.1632410% |
|   15    |             2989988 |      2.9899880% |      5.8367590% |     97.1532290% |
|   16    |             1469950 |      1.4699500% |      2.8467710% |     98.6231790% |
|   17    |              713757 |      0.7137570% |      1.3768210% |     99.3369360% |
|   18    |              343954 |      0.3439540% |      0.6630640% |     99.6808900% |
|   19    |              165652 |      0.1656520% |      0.3191100% |     99.8465420% |
|   20    |               79695 |      0.0796950% |      0.1534580% |     99.9262370% |
|   21    |               38258 |      0.0382580% |      0.0737630% |     99.9644950% |
|   22    |               18418 |      0.0184180% |      0.0355050% |     99.9829130% |
|   23    |                8742 |      0.0087420% |      0.0170870% |     99.9916550% |
|   24    |                4251 |      0.0042510% |      0.0083450% |     99.9959060% |
|   25    |                2105 |      0.0021050% |      0.0040940% |     99.9980110% |
|   26    |                1011 |      0.0010110% |      0.0019890% |     99.9990220% |
|   27    |                 505 |      0.0005050% |      0.0009780% |     99.9995270% |
|   28    |                 228 |      0.0002280% |      0.0004730% |     99.9997550% |
|   29    |                 123 |      0.0001230% |      0.0002450% |     99.9998780% |
|   30    |                  64 |      0.0000640% |      0.0001220% |     99.9999420% |
|   31    |                  30 |      0.0000300% |      0.0000580% |     99.9999720% |
|   32    |                  18 |      0.0000180% |      0.0000280% |     99.9999900% |
|   33    |                   6 |      0.0000060% |      0.0000100% |     99.9999960% |
|   34    |                   4 |      0.0000040% |      0.0000040% |    100.0000000% |
+---------+---------------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

Code:

Prob   = 0.50
Trials = 1000
Iterations = 100000000

+---------+---------------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Lengths |        Total        |      Exact      |     At Least    |     At Most     |
+---------+---------------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+
|    4    |                   5 |      0.0000050% |    100.0000000% |      0.0000050% |
|    5    |               27069 |      0.0270690% |     99.9999950% |      0.0270740% |
|    6    |             1794056 |      1.7940560% |     99.9729260% |      1.8211300% |
|    7    |            12073304 |     12.0733040% |     98.1788700% |     13.8944340% |
|    8    |            23683845 |     23.6838450% |     86.1055660% |     37.5782790% |
|    9    |            23875425 |     23.8754250% |     62.4217210% |     61.4537040% |
|   10    |            17006410 |     17.0064100% |     38.5462960% |     78.4601140% |
|   11    |            10141066 |     10.1410660% |     21.5398860% |     88.6011800% |
|   12    |             5539192 |      5.5391920% |     11.3988200% |     94.1403720% |
|   13    |             2890323 |      2.8903230% |      5.8596280% |     97.0306950% |
|   14    |             1476050 |      1.4760500% |      2.9693050% |     98.5067450% |
|   15    |              745373 |      0.7453730% |      1.4932550% |     99.2521180% |
|   16    |              374087 |      0.3740870% |      0.7478820% |     99.6262050% |
|   17    |              187213 |      0.1872130% |      0.3737950% |     99.8134180% |
|   18    |               93321 |      0.0933210% |      0.1865820% |     99.9067390% |
|   19    |               46487 |      0.0464870% |      0.0932610% |     99.9532260% |
|   20    |               23359 |      0.0233590% |      0.0467740% |     99.9765850% |
|   21    |               11630 |      0.0116300% |      0.0234150% |     99.9882150% |
|   22    |                5937 |      0.0059370% |      0.0117850% |     99.9941520% |
|   23    |                2896 |      0.0028960% |      0.0058480% |     99.9970480% |
|   24    |                1495 |      0.0014950% |      0.0029520% |     99.9985430% |
|   25    |                 693 |      0.0006930% |      0.0014570% |     99.9992360% |
|   26    |                 369 |      0.0003690% |      0.0007640% |     99.9996050% |
|   27    |                 188 |      0.0001880% |      0.0003950% |     99.9997930% |
|   28    |                 105 |      0.0001050% |      0.0002070% |     99.9998980% |
|   29    |                  55 |      0.0000550% |      0.0001020% |     99.9999530% |
|   30    |                  23 |      0.0000230% |      0.0000470% |     99.9999760% |
|   31    |                  12 |      0.0000120% |      0.0000240% |     99.9999880% |
|   32    |                   8 |      0.0000080% |      0.0000120% |     99.9999960% |
|   33    |                   2 |      0.0000020% |      0.0000040% |     99.9999980% |
|   34    |                   1 |      0.0000010% |      0.0000020% |     99.9999990% |
|   35    |                   1 |      0.0000010% |      0.0000010% |    100.0000000% |
+---------+---------------------+-----------------+-----------------+-----------------+

Enjoy.

Sincerely,
Cac

**Cacarulo** · Yesterday, 01:43 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

Probability of 20-hand win streak in 7,000 trials: 0.000185852501104.
Probability of 20-hand losing streak in 7,000 trials: 0.001529230036319.

Do you see the enormous difference?

Don

Don, could you please check this probability again with prob = 0.52? Thanks.

Probability of 20-hand win streak in 7,000 trials: 0.000185852501104.

Sincerely,
Cac

**DSchles** · Yesterday, 01:52 PM

Thanks, Cac. Appreciate the double-check, but, of course, these things have been known (except to toolyp) since forever. I suppose I've been answering streak questions for about 40-45 years or so. Hard to figure out if toolyp is just an annoying troll, an arrogant newcomer, or a well-intentioned, but uniformed, player. No matter. This thread should have closed a long time ago, but I'll ask Norm to do as much now.

Don

**G Man** · Yesterday, 02:34 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

Hard to figure out if toolyp is just an annoying troll, an arrogant newcomer
Don

My understanding of this thread would be: both of the above !
He treated you with total disrespect.

**aceside** · Today, 07:56 AM

I examined Cacarulo’s sim results above but found that Cac probably missed the point here. He lists the exact number of 20-Head streaks as 0.0796950% and that of 20 or more-Head streaks as 0.1534580%. This is incorrect. These probability numbers should be too close to simulate.

As I said earlier, this coin toss example is confusing. I like my streak of 777 in a 100-time-dice-rolling game, because the probability number p(100)=31.89% is large enough to tolerate errors.

If I roll 100 times, each of the following examples is counted as ONE 777 streak:
777A …,
X777EFG …,
XYZ7777W…,
XYZ777PQW777Y …,
XYZ777PQW77777Y ….
What is the 777 streak probability?

However, if I roll 100 times, the following example is counted as TWO 777 streaks:
XYZ777PQW777Y ….
What is the 777 streak probability? Can you help simulate the results out?

**toolyp** · Today, 11:18 AM

Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies

Your opinion doesn't mean shit in a casino.

“Your opinion doesn't mean shit in a casino.”
QED. The min-max spread used to be 5-1000=1-200. The casinos made it 5-500=1-100. All gamblers screamed SHIT! Now its mostly 1-10. SHIT! SHIT! SHIT! Im sure you don’t know why. It’s the streaks stoopid, as Bill Arkansauce explained to the world what is IS.

No offence, just my honest opinion.

**toolyp** · Today, 11:19 AM

Originally Posted by G Man

My understanding of this thread would be: both of the above !
He treated you with total disrespect.

“toolyp is just an annoying troll, an arrogant newcomer”
QED. That’s what you call respect!

No offence, just my honest opinion.

**toolyp** · Today, 11:21 AM

Originally Posted by DSchles

Thanks, Cac. Appreciate the double-check, but, of course, these things have been known (except to toolyp) since forever. I suppose I've been answering streak questions for about 40-45 years or so. Hard to figure out if toolyp is just an annoying troll, an arrogant newcomer, or a well-intentioned, but uniformed, player. No matter. This thread should have closed a long time ago, but I'll ask Norm to do as much now.

Don

“This thread should have closed a long time ago, but I'll ask Norm to do as much now.”
QED. That’s how you argue.

“I suppose I've been answering streak questions for about 40-45 years or so.”
Warren Weaver did it before you. Difference: He did it right. You Don still dont know what a streak is. You should ask Freightman (not me; he knows French too).

No offence, just my honest opinion.

**DSchles** · Today, 01:22 PM

Originally Posted by Cacarulo

Don, could you please check this probability again with prob = 0.52? Thanks.

I missed this. Sorry. 0.698%.

It seems to me that for blackjack winning and losing streaks, if the streak is NOT interrupted by ties,we shouldn't be using 0.43 and 0.48 for the win and lose probabilities. Maybe that's what you were trying to establish here. And,of course, the streak values increase.

Don

**Cacarulo** · Today, 05:37 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

I missed this. Sorry. 0.698%.

It seems to me that for blackjack winning and losing streaks, if the streak is NOT interrupted by ties,we shouldn't be using 0.43 and 0.48 for the win and lose probabilities. Maybe that's what you were trying to establish here. And,of course, the streak values increase.

Don

Sorry, I got confused and thought we were in the coin flip experiment, not in the BJ case. With 0.52, it's obviously going to be higher than with 0.43. Therefore, the numbers above for 0.43 and 0.48 are both correct.

Sincerely,
Cac