Blackjack first experiment

[Econ]

Hi,

After a couple of years studying blackjack and a full year praticing card-counting at my local casino, I feel ready to begin my journey as an AP.

Before beginning, I'd just need a confirmation (or red flags) of the viability of my experiment!

Bankroll : 16 000$
Rules : 8D H17 DAS ; Split up to 4 hands ; No surrender ; No RSA ; Pen 78% (between 75% to 85%)
Minimum bet 25$

I'm planning the following bet spread :
-1 : Wong out
0 : 25$
1 : 30$
2 : 40$
3 : 2 x 40$
4: 2 x 60$
5 and more : 2 x 100$

My CVCX simulation results :
EV = 1.279%
EV/Hour = 21$
Std dev / hour = 377.66$
Risk of ruin = 1.0%
DI = 5.20
SCORE = 27.07
CE = 10.24$
CE/WR = 0.50
N0 = 36 937

I do not expect to make a ton of money with that, I see it as a part time experiment...I want to keep my risk very low while slowly building a bigger bankroll and practicing. I know the rules are mediocre, but the casino is 10 min from my place and has very low heat.

I would highly appreciate and welcome any constructive feedback on my experiment.

Thank you,

Econ.

[Intermediate]

If you haven't already, document each table session. Include Win/Loss, # Players, Pen, spread, time (so youcan estimate #rounds). Review to determine what you did well, where you need improvement, and what to do next time. Make sure you document immediately after each table. Find a way to do it on your phone.

[Econ]

Thanks for your comment! I'll was planning to keep track of my result after each session. Besides that, what do you think of my plan ? For a first experiment, do you think i'm on the right track ? Would you do anything differently in my situation ?

[Intermediate]

I assume your simulations are valid. I would be interested to know what specifically your “experiment” objective is. You say you’ve been practicing counting at the casino, so is this next step to see if you can spread your bets per the count? Or first time wonging? If you’re wonging out at -1, you may not have many opportunities. Maybe Wong out at -2. Also, if your casino small with only a few tables, your table hopping may be too obvious to the pit. Are you going at a busy time, or during a weekday when it’s not crowded but only a few tables open?

[Econ]

I'm using the term experiment, because it is my first experience with a significant betting spread. For the last year, i've been back-counting until a TC of +2 but my bet spread was never more agressive than 1-3. The objective was both to validate my skills and to test the casino. They seem pretty loose with back-counting, now I wonder if they'll pay more attention with a higher bet spread. Usually, there is 1 or 2 table not crowded during the week. On weekends there is 2-3 tables but more crowded. I can litteraly stay at the table and not play while waiting for an opportunity with +EV...or just get up and back count before coming back (Very low-heat)

I plan doing this strategy for one or two years (500 hours) and keep track of my results. I view it as a pre-requisite before playing at higher stakes. After a certain period, i'll have a better idea if i'm willing to get more serious into card counting and invest more!

Thanks again,

[theblackjackplayer]

Nice experiment I wonder if you could stretch the big bets a bit more without negative consequences? Im not convinced that wonging out and standing in front of the table patiently waiting, isnt going to telegraph an obvious red flag.
You might want to have a list of at least 10 places that you are going to rotate. I wouldnt want to risk getting heat and the possibility of them sharing my data with other casinos. So as long as Im losing I keep playing until I come up and then I leave them in peace for at least a month.

[Intermediate]

I plan doing this strategy for one or two years (500 hours) and keep track of my results. I view it as a pre-requisite before playing at higher stakes. After a certain period, i'll have a better idea if i'm willing to get more serious into card counting and invest more!

I don't think you'll need 500 hours to try out this particular strategy, especialy at one casino. Develop aditional strategies and a broader plan e.g., play all, 6D, 2D, etc., rotation, travel, etc.

[Econ]

If I want to keep my RoR under 1 %, this is the most agressive betting ramp I can perform. Also, this way i stay low profile without catching any attention.

Unfortunately, the only decent casinos with 6D rules are more than 6 hours drive away (Connecticut Foxwoods/Mohegan). With my bankroll, I don't think it would be worth my time, but maybe i'm wrong ?

Regarding the heat of my local casino, I know it is difficult to believe but i've played for hours backcounting and waiting for +3TC...no pit boss seemed bothered. They even let me stay at the table and play as many hands as I want. I guess it is the only significant advantage I can get from that casino since the rules are not optimal for card counting.

[sondjata]

Unfortunately, the only decent casinos with 6D rules are more than 6 hours drive away (Connecticut Foxwoods/Mohegan). With my bankroll, I don't think it would be worth my time, but maybe i'm wrong ?

That 6 hour drive ( I assume to be total, not one way) will totally kill your EV. Time is money

[stopgambling]

Hi,

After a couple of years studying blackjack and a full year praticing card-counting at my local casino, I feel ready to begin my journey as an AP.

Before beginning, I'd just need a confirmation (or red flags) of the viability of my experiment!

Bankroll : 16 000$
Rules : 8D H17 DAS ; Split up to 4 hands ; No surrender ; No RSA ; Pen 78% (between 75% to 85%)
Minimum bet 25$

I'm planning the following bet spread :
-1 : Wong out
0 : 25$
1 : 30$
2 : 40$
3 : 2 x 40$
4: 2 x 60$
5 and more : 2 x 100$

My CVCX simulation results :
EV = 1.279%
EV/Hour = 21$
Std dev / hour = 377.66$
Risk of ruin = 1.0%
DI = 5.20
SCORE = 27.07
CE = 10.24$
CE/WR = 0.50
N0 = 36 937

I do not expect to make a ton of money with that, I see it as a part time experiment...I want to keep my risk very low while slowly building a bigger bankroll and practicing. I know the rules are mediocre, but the casino is 10 min from my place and has very low heat.

I would highly appreciate and welcome any constructive feedback on my experiment.

Thank you,

Econ.

i would only wong in at tc2 + , i am assumming you are using hi lo. That would save you a lot of time. Use the time you saved for something worthwhile like more learning or build your bankroll .

[G Man]

I don't think he wants to Wong in cause he would be noticed too easily. The way I see it is that he wants to use a "Shuffle/Wong out" (at -1) strategy.
I don't have anything in front of me to verify but usually, you would want to reach the top bet earlier because of the shallow penetration.
Possibly something like $50 at +2 and $100 at +3

[stopgambling]

I don't think he wants to Wong in cause he would be noticed too easily. The way I see it is that he wants to use a "Shuffle/Wong out" (at -1) strategy.
I don't have anything in front of me to verify but usually, you would want to reach the top bet earlier because of the shallow penetration.
Possibly something like $50 at +2 and $100 at +3

IMO if he can afford to lose the bankroll and replenish , play it very aggressively and don't waste time with garbage game. just don't go too often. . He doesn't want to be stuck after playing few hundred hours.

[theblackjackplayer]

Regarding the heat of my local casino, I know it is difficult to believe but i've played for hours backcounting and waiting for +3TC...no pit boss seemed bothered. They even let me stay at the table and play as many hands as I want.

Bear in mind this can change quickly as soon as you start winning big.