Mentality switch

[Freightman]

Yes.

Don

@Sundown. Here’s another way of looking at it. You’re in the hole after 2 hours and you want to get your money back. There’s no difference to results between grinding back another 2 hours at store in question, or playing across town at same stakes and similar conditions. .

The 9n lay caveat I would say regarding Dons correct response - are those other stores available - no need to make it back same night.

[Sundown]

Freightman so true thanks! Boy I like how you write.

[Freightman]

First, to better understand the issue. This is when record keeping is a good idea. Minimum Columns to include are session length, $ session win, $ percentage loss. Filter the data to determine average $ win and average $ loss.

What you’re describing is an average $ win which is far less than the inverse of your average $ loss. Now, if you're a typical card counter, you will win an average of 60% of sessions played. Multiply $win by % win - measure against average $loss by % lost - hopefully there is a plus sign at the end of the day. Regardless if $ won or lost, start fooling around with the numbers. What happens if you can reduce dollars lost per losing session to begin with and the reduce that $lost to the actual inverse of dollars won. What happens if you can increase %sessions won. What is the impact to overall profitability. Clearly, the impact is significant.

Now for your actual question (pretend you’re Vondox) - $2500 loss is within parameters at a min $25 table - but so is $2500 win. Last month, I had 3 losses (lot for me) totallng about 2k or 2.1k. One of them was specifically to let the casino book a win. Also had 3 2k wins and 1 or 2 $400-$500 wins. This month, no losses yet on 4 sessions totalling about 4.3k on 4 sessions with local tight spreads. Maybe 10 hours played.

In my view, optimal spreads are highly predictable card counter giveaways. They are knock it out of the park strategies. Experience and seasoning will disclose to you other strategies which would appear to make you look amateurish but in reality ncrease your EV. Illleabe it there.

[21forme]

Keep repeating to yourself, "It's just one loooong session."

It's often good to leave when you're losing to "book" a loss.

Many years ago, I was playing at Caesars AC and was experiencing the miracle shoe - I won close to every hand, with a good portion of them at max bet. Won 30K in that one shoe. My wife happened to be watching and said, "Shouldn't we leave now?" I responded, "Do the casinos close when they're ahead?"

I did decide to leave because I didn't want to attract any more attention than I was already getting. A crowd had formed around the table. When I got up, there was a fight for my lucky chair.

[Sundown]

" A fight for your chair" wild ploppies. ????
Do you still use KO? If so I have a few questions for you 21forme.

[8675309]

I had a shoe from hell 2 nights ago. I was heads up in a very deep cut and lost every hand except two of them. I was near max bet by the time the first deck was dealt and there were many splits and doubles along the way. I lost just over $6000 in that shoe and the dealer just couldn't understand why I kept shoving big bets out. I couldn't tell her because the count was astronomical. Anyway, as much as it sucked, like I told my wife I could have just as easily won $6000 on it if it would have went my way. I hate to leave a joint losing but sometimes you just have to do it. I've went back the next 2 nights after and had decent wins but not near as much as the shoe from hell lost. If you're gong to be a counter this is just something you have to accept.

[marriedputter]

[21forme]

" A fight for your chair" wild ploppies. ????
Do you still use KO? If so I have a few questions for you 21forme.

Oh yeah, plenty of ploppies!

I used KO during my first few years of play and then switched to HiLo. Reason I switched was I started playing Sp21 when Walker's book was first published and I wanted to use just one counting system.

[Sundown]

21Forme, do you still play Sp21? Is the game beatable?

[21forme]

21Forme, do you still play Sp21? Is the game beatable?

No, it's been a number of years. It's because I no longer live near casinos that offer the game.

The game was very beatable when I played it. This was within the first few years of Walker's book being published and casinos paid little attention to the game. That's probably different now.

[Freightman]

8675309 said

I was heads up in a very deep cut and lost every hand except two of them. I was near max bet by the time the first deck was dealt and there were many splits and doubles along the way. I lost just over $6000 in that shoe and the dealer just couldn't understand why I kept shoving big bets out. I couldn't tell her because the count was astronomical

I had a similar shoe way back when - lost about $7500. What was the deck pen and what was RC at end of shoe. Reason I ask - if count was high - meaning that all the good stuff was behind the cut card - by extension the question needs to be asked - did you ever have an advantage to begin with?

I’ve harped the point that sims can be beat - the scenario above is simply one more shoe lost in a billion card sim. The sim can’t tell if all the goodies are behind the cut card. The sim can’t tell if the count is going up or going down - it is simply processing information. This is where the lowly human brain by means of observation among other things, help you to beat the sim.

In no way am I denigrating the power of sims - it is a very useful tool among a myriad of useful tools.

[moo321]

You can't get an advantage counting the main game or the tie bet in baccarat. Not in any real world game. Grosjean analyzed it in ExhibitCAA.