Mentality switch

[Sundown]

Appreciate your response Don. So much information around and I'm trying to decipher it all.

A guy named James Grosjean wrote a while back that all this talk of variances is a bunch of BS and it's just an excuse made up by counters who are too lazy to improve their play. It's not verbatim, but that was the gist. Blew my mind.

I also read an older BJ21 post from a well known counter that he once encountered a 50,000 hand losing streak. This particular gentleman doesn't count hours as to him, it's the number of hands and he describes it as variance. That also blew my mind.

As I analyze it all, take it all back, how I win and my understanding is important. It's interesting to witness that although those 10s didn't come out when your count indicated as such, that the dealer still busted. All I can say is well at least I raised my bet but damn how come those cards missed me.

Thank again

[21forme]

" A fight for your chair" wild ploppies. ????
Do you still use KO? If so I have a few questions for you 21forme.

Oh yeah, plenty of ploppies!

I used KO during my first few years of play and then switched to HiLo. Reason I switched was I started playing Sp21 when Walker's book was first published and I wanted to use just one counting system.

[Archvaldor]

Appreciate your response Don. So much information around and I'm trying to decipher it all.

A guy named James Grosjean wrote a while back that all this talk of variances is a bunch of BS and it's just an excuse made up by counters who are too lazy to improve their play.

That is untrue. Variance impacts the computer-perfect counter much as it does everyone else. There is no way for a counter to improve their game so that losing streaks do not happen.

I think what Grosjean meant was "do hole-carding like me and you won't ever have a long losing streak". Unfortunately most of us aren't that short and won't see that many hole-card or similar opportunities.

I also read an older BJ21 post from a well known counter that he once encountered a 50,000 hand losing streak. This particular gentleman doesn't count hours as to him, it's the number of hands and he describes it as variance. That also blew my mind.

That's essentially a losing year for a career professional. Most full-time counters will have had one.

[Sundown]

21Forme, do you still play Sp21? Is the game beatable?

[Sundown]

Thanks for your insight Archvaldor

[21forme]

21Forme, do you still play Sp21? Is the game beatable?

No, it's been a number of years. It's because I no longer live near casinos that offer the game.

The game was very beatable when I played it. This was within the first few years of Walker's book being published and casinos paid little attention to the game. That's probably different now.

[marriedputter]

[VonDox]

When you're on a terrific winning streak and all is going great, do you often stop to check your play and evaluate if you're making any mistakes? No? Why not? You do it when you're losing! Is it that you're stupider when you're losing? Or that you've forgotten how to play? 49 years at this, and I've never once remotely considered checking to see if I was playing wrong, whether up or down large amounts. It simply never made sense to me to do that.

Don, I am constantly working on improving my game and I do check my game when I have wins and when I have losses. Was my bet spread too aggressive or not aggressive enough, did I play a certain hand incorrectly depending what the count is. I practice and I practice using CVBJ to make sure when I am sitting at the table and playing its all muscle memory on how to play every hand correctly. I don't see what I am doing as second guessing but improving my game and reinforcing good habits and if I have any bad ones trying to identify them and eliminate them. The more I practice and train the more I reinforce not only my game play but my emotions as well so when I take that big loss or win I don't let it shake my plan.

I admit I am hobbist when it comes to BJ. I am fortunate to have a very well paying job that I can replace anything I lose and replenish my bankroll but I play to win and I want to win even if I am not a full time AP. So I drive myself to always improve and get better.

[Archvaldor]

Is Baccarat exploitable at all do you know?

Every game is beatable to some extent through procedural errors and promotions. Right now this is probably not something that should concern you too much.

Baccarat is generally a lot more beatable than is generally understood at higher levels of play. At lower levels of play it is mainly a way to cash-in on any promotions due to the bank/player dynamic.

[Sundown]

I feel you, but want to learn something else in order to throw the heat off a little.

[Freightman]

8675309 said

I was heads up in a very deep cut and lost every hand except two of them. I was near max bet by the time the first deck was dealt and there were many splits and doubles along the way. I lost just over $6000 in that shoe and the dealer just couldn't understand why I kept shoving big bets out. I couldn't tell her because the count was astronomical

I had a similar shoe way back when - lost about $7500. What was the deck pen and what was RC at end of shoe. Reason I ask - if count was high - meaning that all the good stuff was behind the cut card - by extension the question needs to be asked - did you ever have an advantage to begin with?

I’ve harped the point that sims can be beat - the scenario above is simply one more shoe lost in a billion card sim. The sim can’t tell if all the goodies are behind the cut card. The sim can’t tell if the count is going up or going down - it is simply processing information. This is where the lowly human brain by means of observation among other things, help you to beat the sim.

In no way am I denigrating the power of sims - it is a very useful tool among a myriad of useful tools.

[moo321]

You can't get an advantage counting the main game or the tie bet in baccarat. Not in any real world game. Grosjean analyzed it in ExhibitCAA.