Mentality switch

[Sundown]

Having difficulties escaping the mindset of protecting wins, or making excuses for not throwing out max bet especially during one of those sessions where you are pushing on blackjacks, and 20s, and dealer is not busting.

I feel like when you been playing from behind all day, and then get back to even, or maybe ahead that it is now time to go. Maybe it is, or maybe it isn't, but just getting out of there with my shirt on is always at the forefront of my mind. I feel like I don't want to make a bad situation worse or lose what I have gained and then have to spend all that time grinding back.

Any advice that you utilize to get out of this mentality? Do you just play for a set number of hours and the results are the results??

Sincerely

[VonDox]

I have similar concerns... I recently played at a casino ( out of my normal territory ) and was playing a $25.00 table max bet $1k 6-deck 1-1/2+ cut and I lost just over $2.5k in 3 hours of play. Most of it was head to head play with 30% with just another guy at the table. By the end I was feeling shell shocked and just called it a day. If I feel I am not playing at 100% then I stop playing regardless of the session length I set for myself at the start. Nothing went in my favor, nothing.. I had a +6 TC and had 2 spots of $225.00 out and pulled a 19 and 18 with the dealer showing a 6. Dealer gets a 5 card 21.. 6-2-4-4-5. For me I have set session lengths I set and I played two 2-hour sessions. I went back the next day and got back $500. I love to play BJ.. so it's not a grind.. My issue is when I have big losses like this one I start second guessing myself and wonder what I am doing wrong. What really helps is I set-up the same rules/bankroll on CVBJ and run some simulated games to see if I am making mistakes or losing the counts and I found I am playing at either 98% to perfect each time. If I test out below 98% then I stop playing and hit CVBJ for a few weeks really hard to make sure my game is at it's peak. From reading a LOT of books on Black Jack.. even top pro's like Ian Anderson, Snyder, Wong all had bad swings of losses... it just happens... If anyone is winning ALL the time and never has any major variance issues then they should write a book a make millions on how they did it.

[Sundown]

Much respect VonDox. Them +6 true counts and dealers not busting really hurts. I'm wondering if we should even approach the game with "let's get our money back and recoup" or forget about it and follow the process....the math so to speak.

[DSchles]

It's just a shame that so many beginners have this terrible mentality that, when they win, everything is wonderful and they're playing great, but when they lose, something must be wrong and they're no longer at the top of their game. If you can't play properly regardless of the results then you really shouldn't be playing at all. And once you are playing properly, THE RESULTS DON'T MATTER!! Why is this so hard for everyone to understand?

Don

[Sundown]

I have a suspicion that the lure of counting cards gives one a unique advantage, and thus one should always be winning. We know this not to be true, yet we/I am here. Personally, as someone who previously played the game all wrong (prior to counting) I can noticably see the difference in performance as I am not losing as much and I'm more disciplined. This leads me to continue to dig and explore card counting and it's foundations.

Is Baccarat exploitable at all do you know?

I am going to respectfully disagree with you, and trust me, I hate to do so as I know you are one of the Godfather's in this field and I appreciate very much what you do.

THE RESULTS DO MATTER. I'm not playing out of curiosity or to win debates surrounding computer simulations. I'm playing to make money and as much as possible! Proper play is paramount, and I'm striving to continuously improve. To objectively cut out the noise of covariances, correlation coefficients, and TVM (Time value of money) ok kidding here as I was a former finance major, but mentality is important although not so much quantifiable.

I'm going to assume that when you say "Once you are playing properly" that the results (Money) will come. Essentially focus on proper play and money will follow??

Yes I can be trading options on line and losing no big deal, but down $100 in Blackjack and boy I'm aggravated.

Respectfully submitted

[DSchles]

When I wrote that the results don't matter, I'm trying to get you, and just about anyone else who thinks like you, to understand that playing hundreds, or even thousands of hours, is virtually useless in trying to determine an accurate EV and variance for the game you're playing. If it were, why would all the computer simulations, done by our finest researchers, be for billions of hands? Why not stop after, say, what a year's play is for you? The answer is that the results of a year's play DON'T MATTER.

When you're on a terrific winning streak and all is going great, do you often stop to check your play and evaluate if you're making any mistakes? No? Why not? You do it when you're losing! Is it that you're stupider when you're losing? Or that you've forgotten how to play? 49 years at this, and I've never once remotely considered checking to see if I was playing wrong, whether up or down large amounts. It simply never made sense to me to do that.

Most beginners obsess over the results. And while it may be understandable from an emotional point of view, it's a virtual waste of time from a mathematical perspective.

Don

[Sundown]

Appreciate your response Don. So much information around and I'm trying to decipher it all.

A guy named James Grosjean wrote a while back that all this talk of variances is a bunch of BS and it's just an excuse made up by counters who are too lazy to improve their play. It's not verbatim, but that was the gist. Blew my mind.

I also read an older BJ21 post from a well known counter that he once encountered a 50,000 hand losing streak. This particular gentleman doesn't count hours as to him, it's the number of hands and he describes it as variance. That also blew my mind.

As I analyze it all, take it all back, how I win and my understanding is important. It's interesting to witness that although those 10s didn't come out when your count indicated as such, that the dealer still busted. All I can say is well at least I raised my bet but damn how come those cards missed me.

Thank again

[Archvaldor]

Appreciate your response Don. So much information around and I'm trying to decipher it all.

A guy named James Grosjean wrote a while back that all this talk of variances is a bunch of BS and it's just an excuse made up by counters who are too lazy to improve their play.

That is untrue. Variance impacts the computer-perfect counter much as it does everyone else. There is no way for a counter to improve their game so that losing streaks do not happen.

I think what Grosjean meant was "do hole-carding like me and you won't ever have a long losing streak". Unfortunately most of us aren't that short and won't see that many hole-card or similar opportunities.

I also read an older BJ21 post from a well known counter that he once encountered a 50,000 hand losing streak. This particular gentleman doesn't count hours as to him, it's the number of hands and he describes it as variance. That also blew my mind.

That's essentially a losing year for a career professional. Most full-time counters will have had one.

[Sundown]

Thanks for your insight Archvaldor

[VonDox]

When you're on a terrific winning streak and all is going great, do you often stop to check your play and evaluate if you're making any mistakes? No? Why not? You do it when you're losing! Is it that you're stupider when you're losing? Or that you've forgotten how to play? 49 years at this, and I've never once remotely considered checking to see if I was playing wrong, whether up or down large amounts. It simply never made sense to me to do that.

Don, I am constantly working on improving my game and I do check my game when I have wins and when I have losses. Was my bet spread too aggressive or not aggressive enough, did I play a certain hand incorrectly depending what the count is. I practice and I practice using CVBJ to make sure when I am sitting at the table and playing its all muscle memory on how to play every hand correctly. I don't see what I am doing as second guessing but improving my game and reinforcing good habits and if I have any bad ones trying to identify them and eliminate them. The more I practice and train the more I reinforce not only my game play but my emotions as well so when I take that big loss or win I don't let it shake my plan.

I admit I am hobbist when it comes to BJ. I am fortunate to have a very well paying job that I can replace anything I lose and replenish my bankroll but I play to win and I want to win even if I am not a full time AP. So I drive myself to always improve and get better.

[Archvaldor]

Is Baccarat exploitable at all do you know?

Every game is beatable to some extent through procedural errors and promotions. Right now this is probably not something that should concern you too much.

Baccarat is generally a lot more beatable than is generally understood at higher levels of play. At lower levels of play it is mainly a way to cash-in on any promotions due to the bank/player dynamic.

[Sundown]

I feel you, but want to learn something else in order to throw the heat off a little.

[DSchles]

Any advice that you utilize to get out of this mentality? Do you just play for a set number of hours and the results are the results??

Yes.

Don