Shuffle Tracking Question for Don

[dalmatian]

Some warnings from Arnold Synder's in his Cookbook to newbies:

{{{"I have known many highly skilled counters, pros among them, who acknowledge that they simply have been unable to track shuffles, despite a thorough understanding of the mathematics and principles involved. Many have given it up because, "When I try to cut to the high card slug, the high cards often just arn't there"

So, before you waste six months studying charts and theory......

But be forewarned.....shuffle tracking may not be a learnable skill for many players"}}}

I wanted to see what another blackjack expert (Don S) thinks of Synder's warnings. Is he being too harsh? I don't find my deck estimation skills to be particularly impressive but also they arn't really that bad either. But like Synder says the bar is really low for deck estimation as a card counter and much much higher for a tracker.

I can get really good at deck estimation if it's the same deck of cards (same thickness) but what really threw me off as a traveling counter that was constantly getting backed off was dealing with frequent changes in card thickness between casinos. It was so pronounced that sometimes I would get to a new casino and their cards were so thin for the life of me I swore they were 5 decks and not six! Constantly adjusting to new card thickness (and usually only for a fleeting amount of time since the backoffs came quick) was my least favorite part of counting by far.

[Freightman]

Have to agree. My best shuffle tracking was on 4 deck shoes in the day and I was reasonably good at it. I do have some theories on tracking ASM and hand dealt shuffles in 6 deckers - the simple fact is that - I experiment, albeit lightly on those theories - to high a probability of getting hammered.

Dalmatian - regarding card thickness - at end of shoe dealer puts remaining cards from shoe into discard tray. Visualize the full discard tray using a mental felt marker drawing a line. Should help.

[DSchles]

Never did much shuffle tracking, except for the very early days in AC, especially at the Claridge, which had a very straightforward trackable four-deck game. Many of today's games employ ridiculously long and intricate shuffles, with plenty of room for error, especially for neophytes, so I would have to agree with Arnold. As for the card thickness, best advice would be to try to obtain the particular brand of cards being used and practice estimation at home.

Don

[Archvaldor]

{{{"I have known many highly skilled counters, pros among them, who acknowledge that they simply have been unable to track shuffles, despite a thorough understanding of the mathematics and principles involved. Many have given it up because, "When I try to cut to the high card slug, the high cards often just arn't there"

.

Not sure what the issue is here.

Cut to the high card slug. Count the deck segment. Keep taking data on the actual vs estimated count of the slug.

If there is no relationship between the two you suck at tracking give it up or get better. If there is a statistically significant relationship use the information.

It doesn't matter what other people think. You can either do it or you can't.

[moo321]

Most people who lose money at tracking are playing games that are too difficult to track. Either the shuffle is too complex, or their strategy is too complex.


It's easier to track a slug in a one pass shuffle than to try to fully map out a two pass. Most people should try the simpler tactics and view it as a supplement to their count game, rather than trying to do really complex tracking.

[dalmatian]

Most people who lose money at tracking are playing games that are too difficult to track. Either the shuffle is too complex, or their strategy is too complex.


It's easier to track a slug in a one pass shuffle than to try to fully map out a two pass. Most people should try the simpler tactics and view it as a supplement to their count game, rather than trying to do really complex tracking.

My intention is really only to remove a few low cards out of the way to supplement my count game (lower spread). Even on a complex 2 pass shuffle, I don't see why this would be so difficult.

[Archvaldor]

My intention is really only to remove a few low cards out of the way to supplement my count game (lower spread). Even on a complex 2 pass shuffle, I don't see why this would be so difficult.

It isn't. If you look at the passage again it says "the high cards often just aren't there". That doesn't mean they are not there more often than not.

I think Snyder's comment was addressing trackers who are trying to bet big off the top into positive slugs with tracking information only. Your approach is more conservative and IMO more intelligent.

[iCountNTrack]

Never did much shuffle tracking, except for the very early days in AC, especially at the Claridge, which had a very straightforward trackable four-deck game. Many of today's games employ ridiculously long and intricate shuffles, with plenty of room for error, especially for neophytes, so I would have to agree with Arnold. As for the card thickness, best advice would be to try to obtain the particular brand of cards being used and practice estimation at home.

Don

The best shuffle for tracking that I had seen seen in recent years (circa 2011) was in Latin America. I remember they got hit bad by a bunch of American sequencers so they were so paranoid about stripping the slugs, it was still a first pass shuffle perfect for zone tracking

[dalmatian]

The best shuffle for tracking that I had seen seen in recent years (circa 2011) was in Latin America. I remember they got hit bad by a bunch of American sequencers so they were so paranoid about stripping the slugs, it was still a first pass shuffle perfect for zone tracking

any thoughts about europe? Im stuck here for a few months wanted to try croatia/slovenia/hungary/czech/slovakia/france/uk. i know most casinos here do a hand shuffle

[G Man]

Im stuck here for a few months

Why don't you take your feet and go in the casinos to see with your eyes instead of asking for details on an open board ?
At least, ask for it in private !

[dalmatian]

Why don't you take your feet and go in the casinos to see with your eyes instead of asking for details on an open board ?
At least, ask for it in private !

lol your right, but europe sucks. In 2021 i drove 5 hours to zagreb croatia to get backeed off in 10 minutes. Then another 4 hours to gorica slovenia and found no playable games. Drove 5 hours to dubrovnik to find a half shoe. Scouting europe sucks. I was only counting then and didnt even know AP slots, maybe with AP slot knowledge and shuffle tracking down scouting europe MIGHT make sense.

[G Man]

What kind of top bet can you afford ?

[peterlee]

Unlike the US, in Europe, there isn't a standard shuffling procedure that guaranteedly breaks the card sequence. This means there are opportunities for shuffle/sequence tracking everywhere.