It's basically just as risky to bet hard off the top because you think the first deck out of the shoe is heavy by +10 as it is to bet heavy in the last half deck before the cut card because there should be 10 excess lows in the bottom deck. Either way, even experienced trackers will tell you to underbet. It's just too easy to make mistakes.
It's definitely not as profitable to chop lows out of play because of dilution. If the game is .6% house advantage off the top, chopping 10 lows to the back barely overcomes the house advantage. Whereas cutting 10 highs into play gives you a 4-5% advantage for that deck.
Plus, it makes you look like an idiot because you're betting big off the top. Whereas a chop player is going to be going up and down with the count.
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