Players in and Out

[Sundown]

Counter's say on one hand that the play of someone else at the table is irrelevant, while on the other, a player joining the table when the count is high takes away cards the counter might otherwise receive (card eating).

Is one true and not the other? I mean I hate to see that dealers bust card get taken because someone hit when they were supposed to stay and then pretend like it's not relevant..????????*??

[Freightman]

while on the other, a player joining the table when the count is high takes away cards the counter might otherwise receive (card eating).

True enough - spread to 2 hands if you haven’t done so already

Is one true and not the other? I mean I hate to see that dealers bust card get taken because someone hit when they were supposed to stay and then pretend like it's not relevant..????????*??

It is and it isn’t. Depends whether you win or lose the hand. Long term, no difference.

[marriedputter]

Let's say that you're using Hi-Lo and you're at a 6-deck game and 3 decks have been played. You have a running count of +15 which means you have a true of +5. The dealer is showing a 6. You are now anxious that the other player is going to get the bust card that you eagerly want the dealer to get (you are presuming the whole card is a face). The other player has a soft hand and hits twice receiving two face cards. You sigh as you dread what's coming. The dealer then turns over his whole card revealing a 5. The dealer hits twice and busts.

But that was just a rarity right? Wrong. This happens all the time. It may feel like there is some mumbo jumbo going on that causes other players to cause you to lose, but it's probably only because the pain from losing is stronger than the joy of winning. In reality, even though the faces are more likely to come, they're only slightly more likely.

As another example, let's say you invent a game where you place 26 blue marbles and 25 red marbles in a bag and you bet on which one you will pull out. Let's say that somebody goes before you and you're scared that they are going to draw a blue marble. They then draw a red marble. You had wisely bet on the blue so now you're ecstatic thinking that you are now going to get blue. And now you draw red as well and lose. How did that happen? You both got red?? Impossible! No. It's quite possible and quite common. If you play this marble game enough, you will come out ahead. But you can defy the odds over and over again because you are only slightly more likely to get blue.

The long run is long indeed. This is what we mean when we say that there is no difference in the long run.

Getting back to my example of 3 decks played with a TC of +5, let me tell you a story. Many years ago when I was still using Hi-Lo, I got up to more than a +50 running count in a 6-deck shoe and I was not even halfway through the shoe. May have been only two decks played. It was also heads up! Now, did this mean that I was excited? Well, sort of, but only because I was witnessing a rarity. Because in real life I did not earn a fortune. Early in the shoe, my big bet came out at a TC of +5. Now, consider what this means. This means that when I FINALLY reached the RC of +50, I had more than likely been LOSING since the small cards had to come out in order for the count to get that high. This means that during this time of accumulation, I did not have an advantage. Oh, in the long run I had an advantage. But in this particular shoe, I most certainly did not up to this point. I bet on the blue marble but got red marbles, over and over and over again.

As it played out, I indeed made enough on that shoe and left when it was over. So just consider that even though you may have a high count and you're concerned about that doofus taking cards, he could just as easily be helping you to get to that rare +50 RC.

[Sundown]

Thank you