Most of the advice you read is wrong

[moo321]

Here are some common pieces of conventional wisdom about how to get away with card counting:


-Don't use a large spread
-Don't raise your bet after a loss
-Don't lower your bet after a win
-Don't back-count
-Play only short sessions and then move on


Before I explain why I disagree with these, let's walk through the logic behind this advice


In order to win money, you need to be able to play. In order to play, you have to ensure the casino doesn't catch you. If you take these measures they will give you more time at the table, which will enable you to win the money. In other words, we're trading EV for longevity. We're hoping to win less per hour, but make it up on volume.


The reason this advice gets so popular is that there is a sense in which these are all true. If you do things like this, it will probably give you more hours at the table. A person who has been backed off a few times, comes to the books or the internet forums and reads this advice will suddenly find they get backed off less. They'll be convinced. This is the way to play.


The problem is that they are not likely to be any more successful getting the money. This kind of advice can cut your win rate from 50-90% or more. I've seen it myself. Counters playing a "respectful" spread on a weak game, glaring at me because I'm spreading a lot on the same game. Their win rate is barely above minimum wage and they're glaring at me because I'm breaking the "unspoken rules" of the game. I've even had these guys make comments to me "you're being really blatant here."


Mind you, I never got backed off of those games where the "respectful" guys were mad at me. Including hundreds of hours on one game with a SCORE over 100. So, I wasn't actually doing anything wrong. I got in, got the money, and got out without getting caught.


There are better ways to evade casino detection. They are better because they don't involve giving up your advantage for a vague hope of longevity. These include:


-Studying the crew and finding weak pit bosses/shifts to pick on
-Studying the common methods of game protection so that you can avoid being caught by them
-Finding out how this casino protects its games, then designing an aggressive strategy that avoids their defenses
-Finding stronger games that the casino is not defending against
-Playing a strong game that falls into a casino's mental heuristic of how civilians play


I'm not promising you won't get backed off. I'm saying that you will be able to play strong games, with a lowered risk of backoffs, such that you won't have to worry about occasional heat ruining your livelihood.


I'll finish with an example. I was playing a good double deck game, spreading 1-12 on it. The same game where the guy got mad at me because I was being "really blatant." There was another guy who frequently played that game. Played like a total maniac. Min to max. But the guy was so good at making it look natural that even I didn't figure out he was counting for several sessions. He just looked like a hunch player. I finally heard he got backed off, but the guy must have gotten hundreds of hours into a strong double deck game, spreading table min to max, before he finally got tossed. 6 figures in EV easily. The guy with a "respectful" 1-4 spread in green with heavy cover can't get that kind of EV playing full time for a year.

[21forme]

-short sessions

[VonDox]

I agree with most of what you say to a point...

-Don't use a large spread Why not, if the game/casino can tolerate it then spread to table max if you can. If they don't like your action it's better to get backed off than to leave money on the table that you could have won.
-Don't raise your bet after a loss If the count is up, why not? You are probably forfieting EV if you do.
-Don't lower your bet after a win Again, if the count goes down, then your bet should go down.
I like the advice I have been given that just because the count drops from 5 to 4 doesn't mean you need to automatically downsize your bet on that next hand. I frequently keep my bet out there from the last hand even if the count drops because TC is not like on an on/off switch and the advice from Ian Anderson has served me well when it comes to ramping down and up my bet on TC changes.
-Don't back-count Depends upon the size of the casino and how you do it. Most would be counters do a horrible job at it and at all the casinos I play at just standing there like a zombie watching the table will either trigger the dealer to say no-mid shoe entry or if I am playing I will ask the person and the dealer to allow my to play the shoe out.. Why do I want another counter taking my high TC cards, right?
-Play only short sessions and then move on Depends, I am really sharp for 60 mins or so.. I start sliding, missing cards by 2 hours.. So I know my limits.. It's also GOOD play if you have to play ALL to simply walk away from a shoe or go play Baccarat for awhile which both offer good cover.

Lastly, I don't shit where I eat. I have two local casinos where I go, I play, I make money, I don't do anything obvious to get backed off and I get points, hotel rooms, free air tickets, steak dinners and I play a lot and I get lots of HOURS in to help me to the N0 point. I have built up slowly playing these casinos for at least $18k over the past 3 years. When I go out of state I play hard, I push to table limits if I can and if I get backed off or banned, so what.. I just don't come back for a year or so or I just go to the next one down the road. You want to be a Black Jack Apprentice gunslinger and screw over every casino you play at local or out of state,, eventually it will catch up with you.

[marriedputter]

-In order to win money, you need to be able to play. In order to play, you have to ensure the casino doesn't catch you. If you take these measures they will give you more time at the table, which will enable you to win the money. In other words, we're trading EV for longevity. We're hoping to win less per hour, but make it up on volume.-

I agree so far.

-The problem is that they are not likely to be any more successful getting the money. This kind of advice can cut your win rate from 50-90% or more.-

Yes, which is why one should know the true cost of any camouflage utilized. I certainly wouldn't do all at the same time nor any all the time.

-Mind you, I never got backed off of those games where the "respectful" guys were mad at me. Including hundreds of hours on one game with a SCORE over 100. So, I wasn't actually doing anything wrong. I got in, got the money, and got out without getting caught.-

But if one is playing rated and not ratholing, the consistent long-term wins will not be tolerated forever. We know that casinos aren't used to losing. When they see that SOMEhow the player has been winning for far too long, they may not care how it was done. They may just give the boot anyway. They do not have to understand it to be nervous. Even without a card, they can make an emotional decision and just shoot first and only maybe ask questions later. I know a big bettor that got booted from my local joint and he clearly did not count. He even played craps like a wild man and still got the boot.

-There are better ways to evade casino detection. They are better because they don't involve giving up your advantage for a vague hope of longevity. These include:

-Studying the crew and finding weak pit bosses/shifts to pick on-

True, but there is still surveillance, not to mention the wins that are attributed to the player, card or not.

-Studying the common methods of game protection so that you can avoid being caught by them-

Agree

-Finding out how this casino protects its games, then designing an aggressive strategy that avoids their defenses-

Agree. I know of casinos that don't bat an eye unless black comes out. Spreading horizontally was my bread and butter there. But they always had to see me cash out and I never ratholed. I did get away with it for four years there though.

-Finding stronger games that the casino is not defending against-

I believe that I know what you are referring to. I have been kicked out of a casino along with several other people for this very thing. What is true today is not true tomorrow in my experience.

-Playing a strong game that falls into a casino's mental heuristic of how civilians play-

ABsooooooLUTEly agree.

-I'm not promising you won't get backed off. I'm saying that you will be able to play strong games, with a lowered risk of backoffs, such that you won't have to worry about occasional heat ruining your livelihood-

It is a tight-rope walk to be sure. To be honest, I am more fascinated with the camouflage aspect of the game than I am the game itself. I love the "getting away with it" part.

-There was another guy who frequently played that game. Played like a total maniac. Min to max. But the guy was so good at making it look natural that even I didn't figure out he was counting for several sessions. He just looked like a hunch player. I finally heard he got backed off, but the guy must have gotten hundreds of hours into a strong double deck game, spreading table min to max, before he finally got tossed. 6 figures in EV easily. The guy with a "respectful" 1-4 spread in green with heavy cover can't get that kind of EV playing full time for a year.-

And that guy is the "true" professional in my opinion. This whole thing is a hustle. And the whole point of hustling is to conceal abilities. But numbers don't lie. All the misdirection and insane acrobatics in the world is not going to change what they see on that screen in the long run. I do generally agree with you that your favored camouflage is much better and I am generally for it. But there is nothing wrong with a few "dumb" plays here and there at just the right time.
On raising my bet after a loss, I don't have a problem b/c I can look like I am steaming or going tilt. I do believe though it is more difficult to leave on a winning streak though. I got flat betted doing that very thing.

The only thing that I completely disagree with you on is back counting. There is only one way that I can see getting away with it. Look social. Two young guys with drinks in their hand on a busy Friday night standing behind a table while counting can be done much more effectively than one guy with his arms crossed back counting on a slow Tuesday night. The former can work if they are talking to each other constantly while laughing and looking like they are just shooting the breeze and maybe looking a little drunk. I just do not see how a lone wolf can get away with it under any circumstances.

[VonDox]

The only thing that I completely disagree with you on is back counting. There is only one way that I can see getting away with it. Look social. Two young guys with drinks in their hand on a busy Friday night standing behind a table while counting can be done much more effectively than one guy with his arms crossed back counting on a slow Tuesday night. The former can work if they are talking to each other constantly while laughing and looking like they are just shooting the breeze and maybe looking a little drunk. I just do not see how a lone wolf can get away with it under any circumstances.[/QUOTE]

Couldn't agree MORE with this... I do this a few times when I can convince my wife to join me at the casino. We walk around with drinks in hand.. and then when we get to the black jack tables I switch over to my "I am the font of all blackjack wisdom" and talk loud enough so the table can hear me.. She asks questions and we laugh about a joke I make and we play the slightly drunk couple then when the shoe is above a TC of 3 I tell her I am going to jump in and play a few rounds and ask her to give me some money. So far, it works really well and I have been very profitable in doing it and a few times the cards didn't land my way. If you are in Vegas or Reno or Tahoe and it's a BIG casino and you are walking around and stopping and watching then moving off again maybe it would work but in the midwest, when you have 4 tables running at a time (1 $15-4deck, 2 $10 -6 decks and maybe a $5 8 deck ) there is just not enough camo to go around. It's why I play all because even if you CAN count and the pit doesn't think you are some creeper instead of a counter, good luck finding an open seat when that shoe DOES go hot. It's all about WHERE you play, Table rules, Deck penetration and if the pit is not on it's toes or if they are looking to bust anyone that wins.

[moo321]

You think back-counting is "blatant" because you're thinking like you. Not like a casino employee.

I can pick off people like you without even seeing you play. I've had people pick me off on the plane to Vegas.

The surveillance guy can't. And neither can most of the pit bosses. And the ones that can, you shouldn't be playing their shift.

[marriedputter]

Couldn't agree MORE with this... I do this a few times when I can convince my wife to join me at the casino. We walk around with drinks in hand.. and then when we get to the black jack tables I switch over to my "I am the font of all blackjack wisdom" and talk loud enough so the table can hear me.. She asks questions and we laugh about a joke I make and we play the slightly drunk couple then when the shoe is above a TC of 3 I tell her I am going to jump in and play a few rounds and ask her to give me some money. So far, it works really well and I have been very profitable in doing it and a few times the cards didn't land my way. If you are in Vegas or Reno or Tahoe and it's a BIG casino and you are walking around and stopping and watching then moving off again maybe it would work but in the midwest, when you have 4 tables running at a time (1 $15-4deck, 2 $10 -6 decks and maybe a $5 8 deck ) there is just not enough camo to go around. It's why I play all because even if you CAN count and the pit doesn't think you are some creeper instead of a counter, good luck finding an open seat when that shoe DOES go hot. It's all about WHERE you play, Table rules, Deck penetration and if the pit is not on toes or if they are looking to bust anyone that wins.

Yes! That's a good one too. I should have mentioned that in my post. Being with your wife/female partner works wonders too, especially if they know little about blackjack. You can point and be pretending to explain the game to them. Happens often with the regular crowd. Females still just aren't considered counters and are assumed to be there to have more fun. Good job.

[Bibolobob]

How would you suggest studying the methods used to protect games common/specific to the particular casino?

[moo321]

How would you suggest studying the methods used to protect games common/specific to the particular casino?

Read these:


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...illance-talks/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...ance-glossary/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...ersus-the-eye/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...ter-espionage/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...g-casino-heat/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/shop...veillance-the/


https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/commen...ama/?rdt=38341


Beyond Counting and Exhibit CAA by James Grosjean are even better if you can find them.

[moo321]

-short sessions

Short hit-and-run sessions are great for Vegas. Won't get the money if you live in central Pennsylvania.

[Freightman]

Read these:


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...illance-talks/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...ance-glossary/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...ersus-the-eye/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...ter-espionage/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...g-casino-heat/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/shop...veillance-the/


https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/commen...ama/?rdt=38341


Beyond Counting and Exhibit CAA by James Grosjean are even better if you can find them.

Just read the first 2 linked items. One way or the udder (couldn’t help the pun), I’ll get to the rest of him.

First link absolutely worthwhile. Second link was interesting. Especially liked the term “Hog Hunting” referring to the ugliest person in the casino. Oh! I have a nomination for that title - not a patron but likely the ugliest critter on the planet. She was about 6’4”, glasses, no boobs and uglier on the inside as she was on the inside. Rumor had it that if one had the unfortunate obligation to screw her, one would put a bag over his own head in case the bag on her head fell off.

[toolyp]

Read these:


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...illance-talks/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...ance-glossary/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...ersus-the-eye/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...ter-espionage/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gamb...g-casino-heat/


https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/shop...veillance-the/


https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/commen...ama/?rdt=38341


Beyond Counting and Exhibit CAA by James Grosjean are even better if you can find them.

So what happened to you last time you played in the casino? Based on your post, I assume you lost. That’s why they backed you off. In my experience, they backed me twice and only when I was losing. They got their money for sure. I was never backed off when I was winning. They wanted their money back cuz they knew the odds. I backed meself off in such cases. And I got comps too sometimes. The losers created this legend of backoffing.

[toolyp]

Here are some common pieces of conventional wisdom about how to get away with card counting:


-Don't use a large spread
-Don't raise your bet after a loss
-Don't lower your bet after a win
-Don't back-count
-Play only short sessions and then move on


Before I explain why I disagree with these, let's walk through the logic behind this advice


In order to win money, you need to be able to play. In order to play, you have to ensure the casino doesn't catch you. If you take these measures they will give you more time at the table, which will enable you to win the money. In other words, we're trading EV for longevity. We're hoping to win less per hour, but make it up on volume.


The reason this advice gets so popular is that there is a sense in which these are all true. If you do things like this, it will probably give you more hours at the table. A person who has been backed off a few times, comes to the books or the internet forums and reads this advice will suddenly find they get backed off less. They'll be convinced. This is the way to play.


The problem is that they are not likely to be any more successful getting the money. This kind of advice can cut your win rate from 50-90% or more. I've seen it myself. Counters playing a "respectful" spread on a weak game, glaring at me because I'm spreading a lot on the same game. Their win rate is barely above minimum wage and they're glaring at me because I'm breaking the "unspoken rules" of the game. I've even had these guys make comments to me "you're being really blatant here."


Mind you, I never got backed off of those games where the "respectful" guys were mad at me. Including hundreds of hours on one game with a SCORE over 100. So, I wasn't actually doing anything wrong. I got in, got the money, and got out without getting caught.


There are better ways to evade casino detection. They are better because they don't involve giving up your advantage for a vague hope of longevity. These include:


-Studying the crew and finding weak pit bosses/shifts to pick on
-Studying the common methods of game protection so that you can avoid being caught by them
-Finding out how this casino protects its games, then designing an aggressive strategy that avoids their defenses
-Finding stronger games that the casino is not defending against
-Playing a strong game that falls into a casino's mental heuristic of how civilians play


I'm not promising you won't get backed off. I'm saying that you will be able to play strong games, with a lowered risk of backoffs, such that you won't have to worry about occasional heat ruining your livelihood.


I'll finish with an example. I was playing a good double deck game, spreading 1-12 on it. The same game where the guy got mad at me because I was being "really blatant." There was another guy who frequently played that game. Played like a total maniac. Min to max. But the guy was so good at making it look natural that even I didn't figure out he was counting for several sessions. He just looked like a hunch player. I finally heard he got backed off, but the guy must have gotten hundreds of hours into a strong double deck game, spreading table min to max, before he finally got tossed. 6 figures in EV easily. The guy with a "respectful" 1-4 spread in green with heavy cover can't get that kind of EV playing full time for a year.

Remember when the min-max spread was 1-500? Why the heck did they lower the margin?