I think you're overcomplicating things, and I don't blame you, I feel the same way :-). For now, forget about the DU bet. Pretend that the player never takes that side bet.
In this initial stage, what I'm interested in knowing is the effect on the EV when the dealer stands on 16, with the corresponding ties, and the winnings for the player who has 21.
If the player gets a Blackjack, that bet is automatically resolved and pays 3 to 2, so the final score of the dealer is still unknown.
Sincerely,
Cac
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