I am a bit confused now lol. The rules above, you mentioned you couldn't double up if you have a Blackjack or stand? So can you just double your initial wager and just stand on your first two cards?
I think you're overcomplicating things, and I don't blame you, I feel the same way :-). For now, forget about the DU bet. Pretend that the player never takes that side bet.Originally Posted by iCountNTrack
In this initial stage, what I'm interested in knowing is the effect on the EV when the dealer stands on 16, with the corresponding ties, and the winnings for the player who has 21.
If the player gets a Blackjack, that bet is automatically resolved and pays 3 to 2, so the final score of the dealer is still unknown.
Sincerely,
Cac
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
Greetings, I ran 1 billion simulations and got these answers:
House edge of the Wizard's basic strategy against a standard 6-deck game (normally it is -.66%):
-.74%
House edge if the double-UP bet is never taken:
-5.455%
I assume that blackjack pays 3:2 immediately, regardless of dealer 16.
Thank you mt4, this is the first confirmation I needed to continue analyzing the game, although I must admit it's very
difficult to do so because there isn't a uniform criteria regarding the rules. Let's see what I mean:
On one hand, we have places where the game is NHC, OBBO. Other places where it's ENHC, and then there are the
classics with HC and American rules. Most are H17, but there also exist those with S17.
Within the NHC, there are those where when the dealer gets 16, they pay ALL 21s (including BJs) 1 to 1.
This is where the differences arise.
1) 6D,H17,DOA,DAS,SPA1,SPL3,NS,10 billion rounds (with fixed # of rounds), American rules.
16 Push Rule: 21 totals paid 1 to 1, except BJs that paid 3 to 2. All other wagers push.
Ev = -5.493969%
Var = 1.184106
Sd = 1.088167
Se = 0.001088%
2) 6D,H17,DOA,DAS,SPA1,SPL3,NS,10 billion rounds (with fixed # of rounds). American rules.
16 Push Rule: All 21 totals paid 1 to 1, all other wagers push.
Ev = -5.827457%
Var = 1.175392
Sd = 1.084155
Se = 0.001084%
Regarding the house edge with standard rules, the correct values are -0.6181% for SPL3 and -0.6717% for SPL1 always with DAS.
I find that -0.74% very strange.
Thanks for your sims!
Sincerely,
Cac
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
I agree with you that the rules all over the place. The rules I used are dealer stands on soft and hard 16, if the dealer has 16 all player's totals greater or equal to 16 but less than 21 push. Naturals are paid the normal 3:2.
Chance favors the prepared mind
The rules state that dealer 16 will push ALL bets (except 21), even those players who have less than 16.
Hi Cac,
The Wizard's basic strategy is risk-averse for splits and doubles, so it gives up some EV on the standard game.
I used Norm's calculator checking only boxes 1 and 5, result: 0.64%
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/re...hp?do=edgepage
Running 1 billions sims with the basic strategy on blackjackinfo (which cliams 0.66%) got me 0.647% house edge.
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/blackj...rr=ns&peek=yes
I ran another 1 billions sims with the wizard's basic strategy and got 0.747% house edge.
I am using shuffle point = 234.
Last edited by mt4; 03-26-2024 at 11:38 AM.
That's accurate. Player 21s win and are paid out at 1 to 1. However, what occurs when a player gets a Blackjack? It seems logical for them to be paid at 3 to 2,
but there are instances where they are also paid at 1 to 1 (only when the dealer has 16). That's the difference between -5.49% and -5.82%.
The next step is to be able to reproduce the -0.31% from the WoO. Were you able to reproduce it?
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Cac
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
Hi mt4,
I think I know why you're not getting the exact values. If you set the penetration at 234/312, you'll encounter something known as the cut card effect (CCE).
In order to avoid this effect, instead of fixing the penetration at 4.5/6, what you have to do is to fix the number of rounds to 40. It can be any number you want as long as
you don't run out of cards. 40 is ideal because it avoids unnecessary shuffling.
Sincerely,
Cac
PS: Still haven't been able to reproduce the -0.32% that WoO mentioned. I'm not sure where I'm going wrong.
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
Hi mt4, I already figured out where the differences come from. My numbers assume that a player, who knows perfectly the 'classic' basic strategy for 6DH17,
sits down to play at a Double UP Blackjack table. If instead of using the standard strategy, we use the 'adapted' basic strategy (which is the one published by WoO),
the results would be as follows:
1) WoO Strategy (no End-16 and no DU), 10 billon rounds (30 rounds per shoe)
Ev = -0.72%
Var = 1.27
Sd = 1.12
Se = 0.00%
2) WoO Strategy (End-16 and no DU), 10 billon rounds (30 rounds per shoe)
Ev = -5.43%
Var = 1.12
Sd = 1.06
Se = 0.00%
If we add the CCE to this, the numbers would be the same as yours. What I still can't reproduce is the -0.32%.
Maybe it's because I still don't understand the rules and because of the discrepancy I see on different sites.
It's not clear to me if you can only Double Up with 2 cards, or if it can be more.
Sincerely,
Cac
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
I believe it's double up with 2 cards only, including after split, but not with blackjack.
I was modifying Blackjack PowerSim to simulate the new rules. I wasn't able to get my code to work for the double up bet and decided to quit working on it. If anyone is able to program this rule into PowerSim, please let me know.
Hi,
Is there any forum member who has played Double Up Blackjack recently? I ask because beyond the differences in the rules that I see on different sites, some are very misleading.
I don't doubt Michael Shackleford's analysis, who says that the house edge is approximately 0.32%. However, there are other sites that mention 0.62%, and others that say the edge
is between 0.20% and 0.40%. Let's look at one of the main rules for which I would need some confirmation:
End 16: Any Dealer 16 ends the game; pushes against all but 21.
Blackjack Pays: 3 to 2 (1:1 against Dealer 16).
Under these conditions, my simulator tells me that the house edge is 0.71%. But if instead of "1:1 against Dealer 16" it were "3:2 against Dealer 16",
the house edge would be approximately 0.38%. I want to emphasize this rule because that subtle difference would make the game less wonderful
and attractive than its creators promote.
Of course, I might be making an error in my analysis, which is why I'm reaching out to other forum members to verify this.
Thank you in advance.
Sincerely,
Cac
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
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