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Thread: Full Early Surrender Deviations

  1. #40


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    FWIW, we make 14 vs. 8 +13 in the book.

    Don
    My estimation shows index is above 12 and below 13 but is closer to 12 than 13. I think either value is within reason.

    k_c
    "Perfection is the enemy of success."
    -Elon Musk-

  2. #41


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    Our graphs indicate something similar, but keep in mind that "closer" to 12, with more frequency for hitting, until you get to the crossover point, doesn't mean that 12 is necessarily the correct index for surrendering.

    Try running one simulation with nothing but the single surrender index of 12 and then another with 13.

    Don

  3. #42


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    Actually, both indices are correct. It all depends on the estimation of the remaining decks. If estimated to the nearest half deck or the nearest whole deck, the index is +13,
    but if estimated to the nearest quarter deck or to the exact card, the index is +12. Moreover, the decimal index with a penetration of 4.5/6 gives me +12.0.

    Sincerely,
    Cac
    Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.

  4. #43


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    "I get player edge ~= .1646%"

    I used BJA3, pp. 492-3. Can you show me your breakdown to see where we may differ.

    6D H17 = -0.761. DAS = + 0.144. Split aces once with multiple hits = +0.177. ES = +0.715. Total: +0.275.

    Don
    Why does a casino allow a game like that?! Are they illiterate? I still believe they have the edge because of bust.

  5. #44
    Senior Member Gramazeka's Avatar
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