Deck composition

[bjarg]

Hi everybody.
Lets say one could anticipate with a fair degree of certainty that the next 2/2.5 decks are going to have a negative RC of -15 / -20.
We would also know that that negative count is mostly explained by an excess of 10s, not so much an excess of Aces, so we dont expect many blackjacks to happen (at least not at a normal rate for a +15 / +20 count).
How big of an advantage (if any) could we get (assuming of course some index play that would anticipate that sort of count) if we started blasting max bets when we anticipate that is going to happen?

The way one would anticipate this is not shuffle tracking, but through observation, so of course theres a margin for error, but bets can be adjusted accordingly.

Now the opposite: you can anticipate the same big slug size but with a massive + count and also a huge excess in Ace density. You can also anticipate at what portion of that slug aces are going to come out using key cards (not 100% but fairly accurate). Does the excess in Aces justify playing this slug adjusting basic strategy to hit virtually everything with big bets? Or wonging out (or betting minimun) feels optimal?

To clarify, Im not asking for a full technical analisys or specific strategy, just wondering what you guys make of a situation like this.

[Freightman]

There is no index play per se, however as you have said - observation - so in other words, this your 3rd or 4 run at this shoe or this shoe on this side of the ASM.

Does your query have merit? - Absolutely. For myself though, I would exercise a degree of caution because of the fact there is also an error factor which can really hammer you. I’m not likely to go in ***** on but I would certainly make allowances. There is a mirror effect on ASM especially pertaining (in my view) to decks that have not been replaced in some time. (I will edit and delete if any believe this is too sensitive. Further, I have other strategies all of which increase my edge.

I recall years ago a hand dealt half 6 deck shoe(only for my benefit) with a minus 23 at the cut card. I grabbed the cut card and was able to remove most of the Schmutz and going heavy from the start. I was only red chipping in those days but still managed a $500 shoe. more of a shuffle tracking comment.

They’re things that will not do in my first shoe but will after a couple of shoes have been played. The concept of observation is a valuable one which I use as one of the methods to beat sims.

[bjarg]

There is a mirror effect on ASM especially pertaining (in my view) to decks that have not been replaced in some time. (I will edit and delete if any believe this is too sensitive. Further, I have other strategies all of which increase my edge.

Who said anything about an ASM?
Haha
Seems you know your stuff, thanks for your answer.
So the answer would be yes?
What do you mean by mirror effect?

[Freightman]

What do you mean by mirror effect?

Again to all - if deemed sensitive, I will delete. Perhaps only pertaining to models in my locale, or perhaps to other models as well - there is a degree of predictability on the ASM where a card combination dealt triggers something in my mind whete I kind of know what’s coming.

addon - especially on cards not replaced for some time

oh - and the answer is - yes

[bjarg]

Again to all - if deemed sensitive, I will delete. Perhaps only pertaining to models in my locale, or perhaps to other models as well - there is a degree of predictability on the ASM where a card combination dealt triggers something in my mind whete I kind of know what’s coming.

addon - especially on cards not replaced for some time

Not sure why you think it would be deemed sensitive. If casinos realize that cheating device can be beaten they would be forced to get rid of them, or at least have them deal a fair game.
Are you implying that playing against those machines with the correct strategy is better than straight card counting?
If thats the case I understand your point and maybe is information it should be dealt with carefuly.

[Freightman]

Are you implying that playing against those machines with the correct strategy is better than straight card counting?

Not implying that. Card counting on 100% of the cards vs risky strategy on a portion of the cards. Simply though another tool in one’s arsenal.

[bjarg]

Not implying that. Card counting on 100% of the cards vs risky strategy on a portion of the cards. Simply though another tool in one’s arsenal.

Ok. So there is no downside in discussing this publicly. Worst thing it could happen is casinos stopping using this cheating machines.

Im amazed however this is being allowed.