What Justifies your max bet and why?

[sondjata]

As intimated in post above - there is a really good True 5 or 6 and a very bad True 5 or 6. You are wrong in suggesting that composition has nothing to do with it though you are correct that side counts are involved

Wouldn't that 'really good true 5" and "really bad true 5" actually be variance?

[Freightman]

Wouldn't that 'really good true 5" and "really bad true 5" actually be variance?

NOPE!
It’s a bet well above or well below your optimal True 5 or 6 bet.

[8675309]

Using hi lo for example, with exactly 52 cards left (in a 6 deck shoe for example), they’re 4 more high cards than low cards left. In this case, a running count of 4 equates to an exact true 4. What’s not known are the number of 7,8,9’s remaining. The answer to that question is what constitutes a good true 4 vs a bad true 4.

Simplifying with True 4.0 and 26 cards left, a Running count of 2 equates to a true 4.0. The following are the True 4.0 card combinations equating to True 4.0 with exactly 26 cards remaining.

13-2-11
12-4-10
11-6-9
10-8-8
9-10-7
8-12-6
7-14-5
6-16-4
5-18-3
4-20-2
3-22-1

Now granted some of those true 4’s are highly improbable. Insurance is absolutely not warranted on several of them. I guarantee that you will get thrashed with max bets on several of them as well - in other words, worth only a 1 unit bet. On the other hand, some of those true 4’s are orgasmic. .

I am intrigued! Can you please elaborate more on the middle cards and how they affect the good and bad positive counts. I spent some time with Tarzan in the summer of 2012 in Atlantic City and he obviously counted the mid cards. I guess my question really is how to incorporate the mid card count into a linear count to designate the good and bad positive counts. I understand the key card concept somewhat where a shoe full of 8s and 9s would make you lean more towards hitting a hard 12 but am not really understanding the mid cards and how they affect betting so much, Thanks for any help.

[Secretariat]

I am intrigued! Can you please elaborate more on the middle cards and how they affect the good and bad positive counts. I spent some time with Tarzan in the summer of 2012 in Atlantic City and he obviously counted the mid cards. I guess my question really is how to incorporate the mid card count into a linear count to designate the good and bad positive counts. I understand the key card concept somewhat where a shoe full of 8s and 9s would make you lean more towards hitting a hard 12 but am not really understanding the mid cards and how they affect betting so much, Thanks for any help.

To begin with, fewer mid-cards increases the odds of getting blackjacks but decreases double downs opportunities. Extra mid-cards decreases the odds of getting blackjacks but increases double down opportunities. Leaving playing decisions out, the best way to really feel the effect of mid-cards on EV is to play around with different deck compositions. Go to KC's site BJSRAT and begin experimenting. Obviously EV will be higher when the number of 89s exceeds the number of 67s. You can use Basic Strategy EV or Perfect Play EV. The more extremes the deck compositions are, the worse Basic Strategy performs.

Extra aces with low middle card ratios yields surprising EV at times.

[Secretariat]

. I guess my question really is how to incorporate the mid card count into a linear count to designate the good and bad positive counts.

Using Hi Lo with a side count of 789s, or better, two side counts (A/789s) would be the best way to incorprate the mid-cards into a linear count. It takes some practice and some special skills that can be learned if you are truly dedicated.

[Freightman]

To begin with, fewer mid-cards increases the odds of getting blackjacks but decreases double downs opportunities. Extra mid-cards decreases the odds of getting blackjacks but increases double down opportunities. Leaving playing decisions out, the best way to really feel the effect of mid-cards on EV is to play around with different deck compositions. Go to KC's site BJSRAT and begin experimenting. Obviously EV will be higher when the number of 89s exceeds the number of 67s. You can use Basic Strategy EV or Perfect Play EV. The more extremes the deck compositions are, the worse Basic Strategy performs.

Extra aces with low middle card ratios yields surprising EV at times.

Very well said. I use a 4 card 6789 bucket simply to keep things in proportion while keeping tabs on aces. No question that 89 surplus is more valuable than 67.

Im tiring more easily these days and find it increasingly difficult to keep up, so, good ir bad, I’m taking a few shortcuts. Even so, I’m really pleased with EV per hour in tight spread within locale and EV per hour playing a somewhat looser spread.

My pet theory of QTC or Quality of True Count has very positive benefit.

[moo321]

Using Hi Lo with a side count of 789s, or better, two side counts (A/789s) would be the best way to incorprate the mid-cards into a linear count. It takes some practice and some special skills that can be learned if you are truly dedicated.

I don't know of any professional players that do anything like this. I don't even know of any that side count 7s, which is much easier. About the most complex I've seen anyone do is level 3 balanced counts or level 2 counts with an ace side count.

[Freightman]

I am intrigued! Can you please elaborate more on the middle cards and how they affect the good and bad positive counts. I spent some time with Tarzan in the summer of 2012 in Atlantic City and he obviously counted the mid cards. I guess my question really is how to incorporate the mid card count into a linear count to designate the good and bad positive counts. I understand the key card concept somewhat where a shoe full of 8s and 9s would make you lean more towards hitting a hard 12 but am not really understanding the mid cards and how they affect betting so much, Thanks for any help.

Secretariat gave you a good answer as to why in answer to your query. He seems more geared to individual hand play while I’m more geared to bet levels. It’s not just something you decide to do one day and implement.

My suggestion is to start out with - ASC - The most valuable index is insurance and that alone will improve EV. Secretariat mentioned 789 density - proficiency there in conjunction with ASC among other things will allow you to adjust your thresholds. There’s a lot more but this should do for now.

@Secretariat - I sense an email sent from you or to come shortly. My Gmail account us down for a few days - you may have one if my others

[Secretariat]

. I don't even know of any that side count 7s, which is much easier. About the most complex I've seen anyone do is level 3 balanced counts or level 2 counts with an ace side count.

Complexity is relative. It's not much harder to side count 789s than just counting 7s. Freighter uses halves (level 3) with A/6789 side counts. Tarzan, the master, used a 4-column count (level 1). He could bet like Hi-Opt II and uses more precise level 1 playing decisions. On top of that, he could uses key cards and seprates 9s from 678s. He was from another planet though. Unless I am mistaken, BJ Genius007 uses Zen with A/89 side counts. There are probably a few others here.

[8675309]

Secretariat gave you a good answer as to why in answer to your query. He seems more geared to individual hand play while I’m more geared to bet levels. It’s not just something you decide to do one day and implement.

My suggestion is to start out with - ASC - The most valuable index is insurance and that alone will improve EV. Secretariat mentioned 789 density - proficiency there in conjunction with ASC among other things will allow you to adjust your thresholds. There’s a lot more but this should do for now.

@Secretariat - I sense an email sent from you or to come shortly. My Gmail account us down for a few days - you may have one if my others

Since December I've used a level 2 count which already counts the 7s. I also began using an Ace/5 sidecount for betting. So far I have done very well with this but if tracking 8s and 9s would help avoid that occasional god awful shoe where I lose my ass in a sky high count then I am interested. I'm not sure how much more I can handle but with work everything becomes easier. If feasible, how would you recommend doing this with my current count knowing I already count the 7s? I can gladly email you if you'd rather tell me that way. Thanks so much.

[Freightman]

Since December I've used a level 2 count which already counts the 7s. I also began using an Ace/5 sidecount for betting. So far I have done very well with this but if tracking 8s and 9s would help avoid that occasional god awful shoe where I lose my ass in a sky high count then I am interested. I'm not sure how much more I can handle but with work everything becomes easier. If feasible, how would you recommend doing this with my current count knowing I already count the 7s? I can gladly email you if you'd rather tell me that way. Thanks so much.

You are counting the 7 as part of your true count. Keep doing what you’re doing. Your true count is your true count regardless of the density of 6789. If you are able - I use a letter count - a thru m (1-13) and regurgitate to determine the number of intermediates in relation to high cards and low cards. The purpose is to deviate from optimal up or down depending on factors. After posting this, I’ll edit with a link that should be of help. Among other things, it will have info on QTC or Quality of True Count. If for example the number of intermediates exceed high cards, then your true 5 or 6 is worth camel dung - don’t bother insuring and keep your bets low.

As we all know, we can win in shitty counts and lose in high counts. A gambit that I look at (can’t understand why others don’t see the simplicity) is not to bother trying to hit it out of the ballpark every session (which leads to your variance disasters), rather to maximize revenue over n sessions.

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...ine-by-request

The entire thread is interesting.

[8675309]

Thanks a bunch. I'll take a gander at the link when I get off work.

[moo321]

Complexity is relative. It's not much harder to side count 789s than just counting 7s. Freighter uses halves (level 3) with A/6789 side counts. Tarzan, the master, used a 4-column count (level 1). He could bet like Hi-Opt II and uses more precise level 1 playing decisions. On top of that, he could uses key cards and seprates 9s from 678s. He was from another planet though. Unless I am mistaken, BJ Genius007 uses Zen with A/89 side counts. There are probably a few others here.

You need to be really careful with things people say on the internet. I'm not commenting on anyone you just mentioned specifically. But I have seen a lot of people who talk about some really advanced system they're running, and when I watched them play they were making huge bets when it was -2 true count and making basic strategy mistakes.


Most of the people who comment on these boards can't count down a shoe using Hi Lo and play basic strategy correctly. Again, I'm not talking about anyone specifically. I'm just saying, be careful about people making unsubstantiated claims on the internet.