What Justifies your max bet and why?

[Sundown]

For whatever count you use what Justifies putting out your max bet? Example:
I play KO , 8 decks, Surrender on any 2 cards, double on any 2 cards, dealer stands on 17, double on splits etc. I adjust my IRC to 0 and put out my max bet when the count gets to 32 (8x4). Card tags are 1-7 +1 10s Aces -1 , 8,9 = 0.
If one is playing Hi-lo a true count of + 4 would indicate placing a max bet.

I just want to know what the composition of the remaining cards looks like in order to just the max bet?

[marriedputter]

I'll assume that you're not considering casino heat. That notwithstanding, it would depend on your risk aversion and/or your risk of ruin.

Technically, a TC of +2 (Hi-Lo) is an advantage. So you could place your max bet, but you better have a massive overall bankroll and trip bankroll to withstand this variance. But though this is acceptable mathematically, it is not practical in most circumstances. For most, I've found that a TC of +5 or +6 is acceptable. You have to find the ROR with which you are comfortable.

Since heat IS a consideration, you will want to choose a TC that is not too frequent. A TC of +5 or +6 satisfies this need as well.

[marriedputter]

And as for your remaining cards, that doesn't matter. If you only get one max bet out there, it is worth it mathematically.

[sondjata]

For whatever count you use what Justifies putting out your max bet? Example: I play KO , 8 decks, Surrender on any 2 cards, double on any 2 cards, dealer stands on 17, double on splits etc. I adjust my IRC to 0 and put out my max bet when the count gets to 32 (8x4). Card tags are 1-7 +1 10s Aces -1 , 8,9 = 0. If one is playing Hi-lo a true count of + 4 would indicate placing a max bet. I just want to know what the composition of the remaining cards looks like in order to just the max bet?

Strictly math. Math says max bet, max bet gets put out. I don't think composition has any bearing unless you keep a side count.

[Freightman]

When the moon is in the 7th hour and Jupiter aligns with Mars. My Supermax bet is a function of high count in concert with proportion of high cards to intermediate cards to low cards.

Recently had a session of crap cards not even betting close to optimal and getting thrashed to about 3.5k. Called my last shoe where in fact Jupiter did align ending session with about a $400 loss.

[Freightman]

Strictly math. Math says max bet, max bet gets put out. I don't think composition has any bearing unless you keep a side count.

As intimated in post above - there is a really good True 5 or 6 and a very bad True 5 or 6. You are wrong in suggesting that composition has nothing to do with it though you are correct that side counts are involved

[Sundown]

I get the math part but what does it look I. Terms of # of 10s & Aces vs low cards in order to justify max bet? Like what does a true count of 4 really mean or indicate.

Thanks

[Freightman]

I get the math part but what does it look I. Terms of # of 10s & Aces vs low cards in order to justify max bet? Like what does a true count of 4 really mean or indicate.

Thanks

Using hi lo for example, with exactly 52 cards left (in a 6 deck shoe for example), they’re 4 more high cards than low cards left. In this case, a running count of 4 equates to an exact true 4. What’s not known are the number of 7,8,9’s remaining. The answer to that question is what constitutes a good true 4 vs a bad true 4.

Simplifying with True 4.0 and 26 cards left, a Running count of 2 equates to a true 4.0. The following are the True 4.0 card combinations equating to True 4.0 with exactly 26 cards remaining.

13-2-11
12-4-10
11-6-9
10-8-8
9-10-7
8-12-6
7-14-5
6-16-4
5-18-3
4-20-2
3-22-1

Now granted some of those true 4’s are highly improbable. Insurance is absolutely not warranted on several of them. I guarantee that you will get thrashed with max bets on several of them as well - in other words, worth only a 1 unit bet. On the other hand, some of those true 4’s are orgasmic. .

[Sundown]

Wow thanks for clarifying. So what's one to do on those "not so true 4s"... Just hope for the best? I don't think I will ever see remaining 26 cards left as that is close to 100% pen.

In any event with 4 other players at the table and you have calculated a true 4 which really means there are only 4 more high cards and each players get's 1 ten and then the second card is a 4,5,6, for a stiff. I mean what makes this game so great even for a card counter?? It seems as if it is only by the narrowest of margins that we have an edge.

Again thanks for clarifying because nobody has ever explained the meaning behind the numbers in terms of actual cards to be dealt next.

[Freightman]

Wow thanks for clarifying

Should have included 14-0-12

So what's one to do on those "not so true 4s"... Just hope for the best?

CVCX sim tells you to blow your brains out as it can’t differentiate

don't think I will ever see remaining 26 cards left as that is close to 100% pen.

Good rules can help with poor pen. Great to have good pen though - look for them

In any event with 4 other players at the table and you have calculated a true 4 which really means there are only 4 more high cards and each players get's 1 ten and then the second card is a 4,5,6, for a stiff. I mean what makes this game so great even for a card counter??

Interestingly enough, per CVCX sim, the win rate per 100 hands heads up vs 3-4 players at table is virtually identical. Note, per 100 hands not hands per hour. Look for lightly populated games

It seems as if it is only by the narrowest of margins that we have an edge.

Yup, which is why knowledge is power and the basis upon which CVCX sims can be beaten

[Sundown]

Thanks for your time. I really appreciate your response.

[DSchles]

I mean what makes this game so great even for a card counter?? It seems as if it is only by the narrowest of margins that we have an edge.

That's true. Straight card counting gives you only about a 1% edge. But understand that that 1% operates on every dollar you put on the table, and it adds up quickly.

Don

[Sundown]

Thank you Don!