Real Deviations

[LT Isaac]

Hello fellow card counters!


I recently encountered another card counter who could convert the running count by quarter decks and also determine the mathematical true count (e.g., 2.13) astonishingly fast. This led me to wonder why the deviations, for example in HiLo, are displayed as whole numbers rather than their specific fractions. What additional benefit would there be in doing so?(In EV terms)

[moo321]

Hello fellow card counters!


I recently encountered another card counter who could convert the running count by quarter decks and also determine the mathematical true count (e.g., 2.13) astonishingly fast. This led me to wonder why the deviations, for example in HiLo, are displayed as whole numbers rather than their specific fractions. What additional benefit would there be in doing so?(In EV terms)

It's much easier to memorize whole numbers than fractions or decimals. And the gain from memorizing fractions vs. the whole numbers would be marginal. Plus you would need different fractions for every single game: 8 deck, 6 deck, 4 deck, double deck all have slightly different indexes.

[Freightman]

Indexes are floored. He’s likely interpolating between the 2 whole numbers. Doubt he is that good that he can come up with 2.13.

[LT Isaac]

I wonder what Norm thinks regarding this topic.

[Norm]

Agree with Freightman and moo.

[LT Isaac]

Thanks for y’all insides.

[LT Isaac]

But what is the difference between using fractions for your bedspread instead of rounded numbers?

[Norm]

Not a simple answer. I have never found fractional counts valuable in shoe games for indices. The difference is more about how much you want to make odd bets. Like $27 instead of $25. This may be more accurate, but slows the game. KO can actually beat HiLo if you Kelly bet exactly according to the count. That is because KO uses running count, which has a wider, non-condensed range. RC gives more different bet levels and therefore better chances at accuracy (at important penetrations), assuming that you are OK with odd bets -- like $27.

Making odd bets is not as much of a tell that you are a counter as one might expect. It's called steaming. You don't keep a large number of chips in front of you and look like you are just grabbing a pile when you are in fact making accurate bets. That may piss off some dealers.

I know this isn't clear. Not easy to explain.

[LT Isaac]

Thanks for your thoughts

[Freightman]

But what is the difference between using fractions for your bedspread instead of rounded numbers?

This is the more interesting question. The typical CVCX sim uses full true count buckets and uses flooring vs truncating. For sake of argument, you are playing against a .5% house edge. This means you are even with the house at True +1 - orrrrr, are you ahead?

You are in fact ahead at true +1.2, +1.5, 1.7, 1.9, 1.99. Now, instead of full buckets, hit the button that says 1/2 true counts. You will notice a slightly different higher ramp at true 1.5 vs 1.0 and 2.5 vs 2.0 etc.

So, if after the first hand you have a RC of +9, you are at true +1 on 1 sim and 1.5 on the other. You can then interpolate the RC against cards played and can accelerate your ramp. There are other tools that can be used to quicken your ramp.