I've logged 41.75 hours so far and I am down about $2600. This is playing a 1-10 spit with a $10 unit. My main concern is that I'm doing something wrong. I just hit a $3700 downswing in the last 12 hours of play. Any advice is greatly appreciated.
-LTT
To have a 39/40 chance to be at break-even or ahead you'll need to play about 1000 hours on the modern game straight counting. To have a roughly 8/10 chance about 250 hours. Even then 5 equally skilled players will have 1 player way above EV, three clustered between 50% and 150% of EV and one near break even or losing. That said if you play 800+ hours a year you will win most years with occasional 100 hour losing streaks. The more you table hop to fresh shoes and the more heads up play at better rules the faster you will get into the long run.
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Your results mean almost nothing statistically. They do not mean you are doing anything wrong.Originally Posted by LicenseToTilt
You should periodically review your play regardless of what results you are having.
I am more concerned about your spread. 1-10 will not win that much against most modern shoe games.
Sounds like you were up until that last 12. Did you have a "golden shoe" turn into negative variance on you where you lost the majority of that 3700? If so, I wouldn't be worried about that at all so long as you did NOT make any betting or playing errors. a $100 top bet in a 6 deck shoe, where max bet happens after 1 deck is dealt can result in heavy losses if you have negative variance. Each deck is around 10 deals if you lose the vast majority of them, well, do the math. And that's not even considering splits and double downs. So check your play (and rules) to make sure you're following a +EV plan.
Besides your 1-10 spread being weak for a 6D game, have you reviewed the penetration, and are you sure you are getting the big bets out there per your ramp? If you are using some cover and not ramping your bet as aggressively as you should, then you are sacrificing EV more than you realize. What kind of penetration are you getting?
You should be able to sim the game and your ramp on CVCX and see where you fall between +/- 2 SD.
Since when I started tracking my hours I have 326/hours of play over the past 21 months. I don't have the time to play every day and make it a profession so I get my hours in when I can. The variance you are seeing with less than 50 hours of play time is probably within the 1 to 2 standard deviations easily. I recently played right before Christmas and lost $1,300 in just a 3 hour session playing 4 deck shoes. But I have the means to replenish my bankroll and keep playing. The inverse also happened just a week ago when I played and after 4 hours of off-on sessions I was up $850. You get good sessions and bad ones.. and some you break even. Play for the long haul and the math will work out eventually but as several more knowledgeable players have already indicated, practice, check your betting strategy, sim it up on CVCX and make sure the game you're playing is worth the time to play and trust in the system..
Bigplayer, I once saw you say something to the effect of not to play games with less than a .9% W/L and that games with at least a %1.3 W/L seem to have much less variance and a much quicker win rate. Is there a N0 number that you consider a cutoff as unnacceptable/very good?
You should not be using your results to determine if you're playing a winning game. You should be testing yourself, or having others run you through tests, to see if your skills are where they need to be. And you should be using published sims, like Blackjack Attack, or running your own sims to see if you're playing a strong enough game.
Lack of sufficient skill and playing weak games take out a lot of counters. Only thing worse is lack of discipline.
The Cash Cow.
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