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To have a 39/40 chance to be at break-even or ahead you'll need to play about 1000 hours on the modern game straight counting. To have a roughly 8/10 chance about 250 hours. Even then 5 equally skilled players will have 1 player way above EV, three clustered between 50% and 150% of EV and one near break even or losing. That said if you play 800+ hours a year you will win most years with occasional 100 hour losing streaks. The more you table hop to fresh shoes and the more heads up play at better rules the faster you will get into the long run.
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