Did this AP fool me?

**LT Isaac** · 01-22-2024, 10:21 AM

Did this AP fool me?

Not long ago, I was playing blackjack at my local casino. Despite the rules being normal/good for a standard casino, the playing speed was rather slow. I encountered another AP who was also counting, and he pointed out some flaws in my derivation. He provided me with a table of derivation for a normal shoe game for S17 and H17, respectively.

Table of Derivation for H17:
1. Split T,T against 4 at true count of 6 or higher
2. Split T,T against 5 at true count of 5 or higher
3. Split T,T against 6 at true count of 4 or higher
4. Double down A,8 against a 4 at true count of 3 or higher
5. Double down A,8 against a 5 at true count of 1 or higher
6. Double down A,8 against a 6 at any negative running count.
7. Double Down A6 against a 2 at true count of 1 or higher.
8. Stand on 16 against 9 at true count of 4 or higher
9. Stand on 16 against 10 at any positive running count.
10. Stand on 16 against an Ace at true count of 3 or higher.
11. Stand on 15 against 10 at true count of 4 or higher
12. Stand on 15 against an Ace at true count of 5 or higher
13. Stay on 13 against 2 at true count of negative 2 or lower (I always stay on 13 based on basic strategy; why is that a derivation?)
14. Stand on 12 against 2 at true count of 3 or higher
15. Stand on 12 against 3 at true count of 2 or higher
16. Stand on 12 against 4 at any negative running count (I always stand on 12 against 4-6 based on basic strategy; why is that a derivation?)
17. Double down on 10 against 10 at true count of 4 or higher.
18. Double down on 10 against Ace at true count of 3 or higher.
19. Double down on 9 against 2 at true count of 1 or higher
20. Double down on 9 against 7 at true count of 3 or higher.
21. Double down on 8 against 6 at true count of 2 or higher.

Table of Derivation for S17:
1. Split T,T against 4 at true count of 6 or higher
2. Split T,T against 5 at true count of 5 or higher
3. Split T,T against 6 at true count of 4 or higher
4. Double down A,8 against a 4 at true count of 3 or higher
5. Double down A,8 against a 5 at true count of 1 or higher
6. Double down A,8 against a 6 at true count of 1 or higher.
7. Double Down A6 against a 2 at true count of 1 or higher.
8. Stand on 16 against 9 at true count of 4 or higher
9. Stand on 16 against 10 at any positive running count.
10. Stand on 15 against 10 at true count of 4 or higher
11. Stand on 13 against 2 at true count of negative 1 or lower (I always stay on 13 based on basic strategy; why is that a derivation?)
12. Stand on 12 against 2 at true count of 3 or higher
13. Stand on 12 against 3 at true count of 2 or higher
14. Stand on 12 against 4 at any negative running count (I always stand on 12 against 4-6 based on basic strategy; why is that a derivation?)
15. Double down on 10 against 10 at true count of 4 or higher.
16. Double down on 10 against Ace at true count of 4 or higher.
17. Double down on 11 against Ace at true count of 1 or higher (I always double down on 11 based on basic strategy; why is that a derivation?)
18. Double down on 9 against 2 at true count of 1 or higher
19. Double down on 9 against 7 at true count of 3 or higher.
20. Double down on 8 against 6 at true count of 2 or higher.

Surrender:
- Surrender 17 against an Ace (always) (not for S17)
- Surrender 16 against 10 and Ace (always)
- Surrender 16 against a dealer's 8 at true count of 4 or higher
- Surrender 15 against 9 at true count of 2 or higher.
- Surrender 15 against 10 at any negative running count (I always surrender 15 against 10; why is that a derivation?)
- For S17, surrender 16 against 9 at a negative true count of 1 or lower (I always surrender 16 against 9 based on basic strategy; why is that a derivation?)

However, in the last 20 hours, my win rate dropped a bit. Now, I am wondering if the other AP's derivations are correct. Any insights into the accuracy of these derivations would be appreciated. As I am not particularly math-oriented, I'm curious if any of our savvy individuals have information on alternative derivations that can be implemented. Additionally, how do these derivations vary in specific games? Do they remain consistent, and how can I calculate them mathematically?

Is the option to surrender as part of basic strategy or as a derivation preferable instead of the derivation of the basic strategy or the general basic strategy? How does multihandling influence your edge per hand and the number of played hands? What software is necessary, and how can I determine if my overall game (my bet spread and my general playing decision, meaning basic strategy and derivation) is profitable under the specific circumstances of this blackjack game? Any help would be greatly appreciated.

**G Man** · 01-22-2024, 10:38 AM

He did not fool you but may be a bit outdated.

Corrections:

Table of Derivation for H17:
1. Split T,T against 4 at true count of 7 or higher
2. Split T,T against 5 at true count of 5 or higher
3. Split T,T against 6 at true count of 4 or higher
4. Double down A,8 against a 4 at true count of 3 or higher
5. Double down A,8 against a 5 at true count of 1 or higher
6. Double down A,8 against a 6 at 0 ; any positive or neutral running count.
7. Double Down A6 against a 2 at true count of 1 or higher.
8. Stand on 16 against 9 at true count of 5 or higher
9. Stand on 16 against 10 at any positive running count.
10. Stand on 16 against an Ace at true count of 4 or higher.
11. Stand on 15 against 10 at true count of 4 or higher
12. Stand on 15 against an Ace at true count of 5 or higher
13. Stay on 13 against 2 at true count of -1 or higher (remember 0 is higher than -1)
14. Stand on 12 against 2 at true count of 3 or higher
15. Stand on 12 against 3 at true count of 1 or higher
16. Stand on 12 against 4 at 0 or higher
17. Double down on 10 against 10 at true count of 4 or higher. This is the max ev play, most would now use +7 which is the RA number (maximize SCORE)
18. Double down on 10 against Ace at true count of 3 or higher.
19. Double down on 9 against 2 at true count of 1 or higher
20. Double down on 9 against 7 at true count of 4 or higher.
21. Double down on 8 against 6 at true count of 2 or higher.

Table of Derivation for S17:
1. Split T,T against 4 at true count of 7 or higher
2. Split T,T against 5 at true count of 5 or higher
3. Split T,T against 6 at true count of 5 or higher
4. Double down A,8 against a 4 at true count of 3 or higher
5. Double down A,8 against a 5 at true count of 1 or higher
6. Double down A,8 against a 6 at true count of 1 or higher.
7. Double Down A6 against a 2 at true count of 1 or higher.
8. Stand on 16 against 9 at true count of 5 or higher
9. Stand on 16 against 10 at 0 (any positive running count.)
10. Stand on 15 against 10 at true count of 4 or higher
11. Stand on 13 against 2 at -1 or higher (remember 0 is higher than -1)
12. Stand on 12 against 2 at true count of 4 or higher
13. Stand on 12 against 3 at true count of 2 or higher
14. Stand on 12 against 4 at 0 or higher
15. Double down on 10 against 10 at true count of 4 or higher. This is the max ev play, most would now use +7 which is the RA number (maximize SCORE)
16. Double down on 10 against Ace at true count of 4 or higher.
17. Double down on 11 against Ace at true count of 1 or higher (I always double down on 11 based on basic strategy; why is that a derivation? You were using a H17 Basic Strategy !)
18. Double down on 9 against 2 at true count of 1 or higher
19. Double down on 9 against 7 at true count of 4 or higher.
20. Double down on 8 against 6 at true count of 2 or higher.

Surrender:
- Surrender 17 against an Ace at TC less than +2 (not for S17 where you always stand)
- Surrender 16 against 10 and Ace at -2 or higher for S17; -6 or higher for H17
- Surrender 16 against a dealer's 8 at true count of 4 or higher
- Surrender 15 against 9 at true count of 2 or higher.
- Surrender 15 against 10 at 0 or higher
- For both S17 and H17, surrender 16 vs 9 at -1 or higher

You should buy the latest book by Don Schlesinger and Dave Brolley; The Hi-Lo Card Counting System: A Compete Guide to Index Play

**DSchles** · 01-22-2024, 10:39 AM

You have the surrenders for 15 vs. T and 16 vs. 9 wrong. You surrender at the index or HIGHER, not lower.

Don

**awesomeblue7** · 01-22-2024, 10:54 AM

Different rule sets will affect the values of certain deviations. If my memory serves me correctly, Norm's free book on his QFIT site did a good job laying out the costs and gains as well as desirability of some rules (I know there's a good progression of material here, but I'm just hoping I'm not confusing it with Snyder's Big Book of Blackjack which also lays out these concepts in a way that is understandable and digestible to any reader).