Can someone remind me what a playable 6:5 game is in double deck? Would 1x50-2x800 on a 75% H17 DD das 6:5 game with halves count be playable on a 300k bank and with what N0. Just approximate range.
Dealt to the last card and 6:5 is the best game ever. My question is at which level penetration is the tipping point where it's no longer a candy game? 95%? 90? 85%?......Originally Posted by iCountNTrack
I'm too lazy to run a sim and wanted someone to just tell me.
what was i thinking..............
I ran a sim on CVData called "Norm hold my hand 6:5 single deck" where i simmed a H17 das single deck game with 6:5 but dealt to the last card (100% pen). The SCORE was 286 for the optimal spread or 112 for a 4-1 spread of 1x50-1x200 with max @ +2 true, the halves count (N0 89 hours and win rate 145$/hr). Since you need to adjust the penetration every time you run a sim I'm going to need to run separate sims for 95%, 90%, 85% etc levels. Just thought somone else tried this before. My intuition is saying even 75% on DD is beatable with a monster spread but the advantage could rapidly fall off the further you move away from 100% pen. Guess Im gonna have to run some sims........
Last edited by dalmatian; 01-19-2024 at 11:43 PM.
You should plot the SCORE as a function of penetration percentage; if your intuition is correct, then you should see a sharp threshold before which the SCORE decreases linearly or logarithmically and after which it decreases exponentially. Such cutoff phenomena are actually quite common.
The effects of removal for count systems are based on the assumption of an otherwise standard deck. This becomes less accurate at very deep penetration where entire ranks can be depleted. Eg simple example all tens remaining would lead to a certain push whetever your count system tells you.
75% on DD leaves 26 cards and you won't get much of this at that level-the deck structure will be usually intact. I think a good way to ameloriate any problems with this effect is to go back to Beat The Dealer and look at end-play strategies to exploit this phenomena. You are missing out on a lot of EV from just using the simple counting approach when it is in evidence.
Last edited by Archvaldor; 01-21-2024 at 03:23 PM.
Funny you should ask, because I've been working on numbers for 6 to 5 games for the past few weeks.
For 2D H17 DAS using HiLo, you get a SCORE of 20.51 at a 1-30 spread with full indexes. I don't have the numbers for Halves, but it should be slightly better with the better betting efficiency of more accurately weighting the low cards, but slightly inferior to Zen because the Ace shouldn't be counted as heavy in 6 to 5. You can also use the ace neutral counts, which are pretty effective both without a side count, and with the ace side-counted with an adjustment of only 1 per excess ace.
That spread should be fine for that bankroll, assuming you're ramping properly. With HiLo, you don't start raising bets until +4.
The Cash Cow.
That doesn't sound right to me. With HiLo full indexes, you don't even get the advantage until +3 in 6 to 5, DAS H17 single deck. Probably want to wait until +4 or +5 to bet max with a 1-4 spread.
Maybe it's a "how true is your true count?" thing because you're looking at it dealt to the last card.
The Cash Cow.
Hey Boyz,
Ran another sim, and my intuition was right. Should be so, been counting cards for nearly 5 years now
6:5 DD is highly playable. Halves Full Indices on 6:5 H17 das DD with 75% pen is $332/hr on 1x25-2x800 (1x25 until True +3, max out with 2x800 at True +4). The N0 is 310 hours and ror is 2.1% on 200k bank.
Not sure how practical it is to attempt to do 1x25-2x800 for 310 hours but hey, it's a jumping off point........
Warm Regards,
Dalmation
Hi,Hey Boyz,
Ran another sim, and my intuition was right. Should be so, been counting cards for nearly 5 years now
6:5 DD is highly playable. Halves Full Indices on 6:5 H17 das DD with 75% pen is $332/hr on 1x25-2x800 (1x25 until True +3, max out with 2x800 at True +4). The N0 is 310 hours and ror is 2.1% on 200k bank.
Not sure how practical it is to attempt to do 1x25-2x800 for 310 hours but hey, it's a jumping off point........
Warm Regards,
Dalmation
Just out of curiosity, I've been analyzing the proposed conditions: 2D, H17, DAS, SPA1, SPL3, NS, BJ pays 6:5, 1.5/2, Play-All. For this analysis, I used CAC2 (level 2) with only 22 indices (R22).
First of all, it's important to understand what the expected value is for a basic strategy player in this game:
EV = -1.75% (BJ 6:5) whereas for a normal game, it would be EV = -0.38% (BJ 3:2).
Clearly, it's a very challenging negative expectation to counteract.
That being said, the game can be beaten with a good counting system plus a significant spread.
Let's look at the obtained SCOREs:
1-8: $1.07
1-10: $4.41
1-20: $20.94
1-30: $30.82
Hope this helps.
Sincerely,
Cac
Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
Thanks Cacarulo!! Yes, with significant spread it's beatable. Forget about slowly ramping up!
The right tolerant place would probably let this slide, who knows.
I'm really scrapping the bottom of the barrel. At 2x500/2x600 levels I've lost half the united states (eastern side). I converted my car into a car house [bed, running water, power supply, food prep etc] and attempting to tackle the west side soon but living out of ur car sucks. And with how little EV you get nowadays before backoff I'm really reluctant to invest thousands in hotels/plane tickets/etc to just get backed off right away
Dalmatian. I converted my car into a car house [bed, running water, power supply, food prep etc] and attempting to tackle the west side soon but living out of ur car sucks.
With 1x50 to 2x800, there’s enough EV to use hotels/motels. As I’ve said to you in prior threads, throwing out those numbers while wearing crumpled Walmart slacks with armpit stained shirts and greasy unwashed hair is a fast recipe for quick backoff.
At the very least, buy a combination lock similar to what you used in school - find a close by college or university, locate their physical education building or premise, and use those shower facilities. Naturally, bring in fresh clothes cleaned by a dry cleaner or from a laundry mat. Oy!
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