deck penetration in KO system

[Heraclitus]

Just tried Vancura and Fuch's "KO system" last night for the first time with good success (well, maybe mostly luck, but at least I won. But a question occurs to me about the authors' deck penetration assumption. The authors in Appendix 5 say they assume 75% deck penetration and that although lesser penetration is unfavorable to the player it does not affect how to use the system itself.

However, I'm interested in what happens as one approaches the end of the shoe. Assume 8 decks. With the prescribed -28 IRC and -6 key count, the odds have already become slightly unfavorable at 75%: The average count at 75% is -28 + (.75 x 32) or -4. Thus (-6 + 4)/2 = -1. To be neutral at 75% penetration entails a -4 key count. Perhaps the difference is negligible--and I realize that the idea with the KO system is to not have to count decks remaining. But I'm wondering if it would make sense to gradually reduce the key count from -6 to -4 over the course of a shoe. Or is the difference too negligible to worry about? I was surprised last night how deep the deck penetration was (at Foxwoods, CT). Seemed over 80% to me, although I'm not practiced at the estimation. But for one and a half decks remaining (81.25%) the neutral count is -2. That difference seems significant to me.

[Gramazeka]

https://www.blackjackinfo.com/commun...eadsheet.5732/

[Heraclitus]

Thank you!

[Gramazeka]

Search the forum there with the tag KO. You will find a lot of interesting things. Good luck !

[Sundown]

Try reading the "Color of Blackjack". It's a super simple KO system based off the authors work you mentioned.

I always start my IRC to equal 0 and my max bet is on the table at plus 34 for an 8 deck shoe. The right dealers will cut 1.5 out although they are trained to cut 2. That is still a beatable game. I walk away when I see them cut 2 or 2.5 decks. It's crucial to get deep into the shoe in order to make your money back prior to the reshuffle. Typically it's only when there is a deck or little less left until the cut card where you will witness the count go +32 and more for an 8 deck shoe. If your read the color of Blackjack, it shows where you need to be in the count in order to raise your bets prior to reaching max. Example: in an 8 deck shoe, after 3 decks are dealt, your running count should at least be 17 , after 4 decks it's 20, after 5 decks dealt it's 23. These running count numbers start with your initial IRC set to zero and represent when you first have the advantage. That advantage is approximately.5%. however at +32 we have a 2.0% advantage over the house.